Harris / Trump Election Polls

[Pellinore]

They ALL had Hillary and Biden in 2016 and 2020 respectively up by much much more.

Meaning it's not going well.

Yup. A lot of people forget that Trump finished about an average of six points better in every poll in those elections, which was enough to overtake Hilary but not Biden. Personally, I think the polls were all built for the paradigm that he broke, and they didn't account for the new rules he brought to the table ... like accounting for respondents that don't like pollsters, for just one example.

Now, this is a different election, Harris doesn't have the baggage and age issues that Clinton and Biden did, and maybe the poll companies (whose livelihoods depend on figuring it out) figured it out, but on the other hand ... how much do you trust the polling companies?

Yes, anyone who thinks Harris has it all wrapped up now just doesn't get it.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

 

[MagicMike]

Nobody cares

Will you care on November 6th when it's time for the convicted felon to give his concession speech? Will you be "caring" then?

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Will you care on November 6th when it's time for the convicted felon to give his concession speech? Will you be "caring" then?

Or maybe you'll be crying like a bitch. We'll see

I don't understand this poll crap and I don't buy into it

 

[MagicMike]

I don't understand this poll crap and I don't buy into it

Yeah. I've been hearing that a lot from MAGAts. Funny how back when Biden was in the race the convict had all you cultroaches quoting the polls like they were holy scripture or something.
Then, just like I predicted once Biden stepped aside and Harris took over, the polls flipped and all of a sudden polls became "fake news" in the MAGAt-verse.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Yeah. I've been hearing that a lot from MAGAts. Funny how back when Biden was in the race the convict had all you cultroaches quoting the polls like they were holy scripture or something.
Then, just like I predicted once Biden stepped aside and Harris took over, the polls flipped and all of a sudden polls became "fake news" in the MAGAt-verse.

You lost me at MAGAts

Grow up MinisculeMikey

 

[MagicMike]

You lost me at MAGAts

Grow up MinisculeMikey

But they (you) are MAGAts.
You see, I created that word simply because MAGA's wear silly red HATS.
I just combined the words and shortened it.
MAGAts.
Perfect!

 

[SassyIrishLass]

But they (you) are MAGAts.
You see, I created that word simply because MAGA's wear silly red HATS.
I just combined the words and shortened it.
MAGAts.
Perfect!

Yawn. Grow up

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Yup. A lot of people forget that Trump finished about an average of six points better in every poll in those elections, which was enough to overtake Hilary but not Biden. Personally, I think the polls were all built for the paradigm that he broke, and they didn't account for the new rules he brought to the table ... like accounting for respondents that don't like pollsters, for just one example.

Now, this is a different election, Harris doesn't have the baggage

I was totally with ya.

Then.....


WHAT?

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Yeah, newsflash.

She can't win.

If this poll is even remotely accurate it's numerically impossible.

One in four US Black men under 50 support Trump for president, NAACP poll finds​

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-four-us-black-men-under-50-support-trump-president-naacp-poll-finds-2024-09-13/

But keep on taking comfort in the polls that underestimated Trump by multiple points both times.

Ya got about 6 weeks left to do so.

Then it all STOPS.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

She's losing younger blacks, she's losing the working class.

More than ANY other Democrat who came before her.

And we're supposed to believe she's a political Houdini?

Let me let ya Leftists down easy: It ain't happening.

She literally doesn't have the coalition necessary to succeed.

It's all a media circus sugar high.

Voters outraged after Harris shuts out ‘working poor’ from ‘MAGA land’ rally: ‘She’s hiding’

Donald Trump rallied thousands in Johnstown, Pennsylvania but now Kamala Harris is visiting deep red Pennsylvania to win the swing state’s 19 electoral college votes.

nypost.com

 

[RhodyPatriot]

HA!

ALSO ABC NEWS:

ABC News, the same network that hosted the debate/train wreck, put a happy spin on its poll results: “Harris seen as debate winner while maintaining slight lead over Trump: POLL” (For the sub-header, you can almost hear the “womp-womp” sad sax music: “Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris shows little impact, the poll found.”)

“New polling post-debate from ABC News and Ipson finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump among likely voters, with the margin in the race unchanged from ABC News polling conducted in late August. Overall, 52% of likely voters back Harris, 46% Trump in the poll, the same margin the pollsters found among likely voters in an August 23 through 27 poll.” [emphasis added]

ABC News Is Perplexed: Why Isn’t Kamala Harris Getting a Post-Debate Bounce? The Answer Is…

pjmedia.com

So in essence, this trash outlier poll shows KAMALA GOT NO DEBATE BUMP.

Taz, if you're a MAGA operative posing as a Dem - congrats.

Bang up job you're doin'.

If not?

Ya might want to stop posting, because every time you do the sound of a whoopie cushion releasing its bowels is distinctly palpable.

 

[progressive hunter]

Rather than have a bazillion different threads as polls come out over the next few months, we may as well have one thread dedicated to polls of the presidential race. I'll make this a sticky.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Check out the title of ABC's Ipsos poll.

BTW, Ipsos (a polling firm normally assosicated with Reuters) are garbage and highly inaccurate judging from the past two presidential elections, but anyway:

Harris Seen as Debate Winner Yet the Contest Does Not Budge

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1236a1AftertheHarris-TrumpDebate.pdf

So again, anyone touting this poll is bragging about Kamala not getting a debate bump.

She didn't get a convention bump either.

Funny, it's almost as if one side keeps getting it right, and the other keeps getting it wrong.

Like fucking clockwork.

Gee, I wonder how that will play out on election day?

 

[MagicMike]

I was totally with ya.

Then.....


WHAT?

What the polling in 2016 couldn't account for was the dishonesty of MAGAts at the time who couldn't bring themselves to answer honestly who they were planning to vote for.
The climate is much different now with stupidity being much more normalized on the right. MAGAts no longer feel marginalized like they have to hide and they're not afraid now to tell pollsters "hell yeah....I'm one of them fucking idiots and PROUD OF IT," so yeah....that aspect of the polling is liable to be more accurate.
The wild card in this election/polling cycle though might be the mutiny of MAGAt wives/women who have been generating tens of thousands of Google searches with queries like "does my husband get to see who I voted for" and "is my vote really a secret?"
A large scale defection of MAGAt women who are secretly inspired by future President Harris and may be out there making sure they can safely cast a vote for her without their husbands finding out, will cut convicted felon Trump's lead even among his rabid, cultroach, minority base in half.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Harris-Trump latest presidential polls: Shocking 14-point swing in deep-red state might tell you everything

The race is now outside the margin of error

www.nj.com

...the Des Moines Register’s latest presidential state poll might tell voters all they need to know: In June, Trump led President Joe Biden by 18 points, but Harris has narrowed that margin to only four points — in a deep red state. Trump won Iowa by eight points in the 2020 presidential election against Biden.

“This poll may be catching newly energized voters who thought they would sit out the election at the time our June poll was taken,” Selzer said.

The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the huge lead the Republican former president enjoyed in late spring.

Before Biden ended his reelection campaign, a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading, 50% to 32%.

This is the Iowa Poll’s first test of Harris’ strength against Trump since she replaced Biden in August to become the Democratic presidential nominee.

“I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable” for Trump, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the newspaper. “The race has tightened significantly.”

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Kamala Harris has officially pulled ahead of Donald Trump, according to … Fox News?!​

 

[RhodyPatriot]

The most accurate poll from both 2016, and 2020 - which was off by only .2% both times:

ATLAS INTEL: Trump leads by 3 nationally.

Here is a little bit about them.

They're included in the RCP average, but not sure about Nate Plastic:

AtlasIntel had the best performance across all pollsters of the 2020 US Presidential Election with an average error of 2.01p.p. Our final national-level poll showing Biden with a 4.7 p.p. advantage is likely to be the single most precise estimate of the US popular vote.

Atlas Intel also conducted the most precise polls across all pollsters for the states of Michigan and North Carolina. In all states polled by AtlasIntel, results fell within the margin of error of our estimates. The AtlasIntel average error was not only lower than that of other pollsters, but also lower than that of polling averages and model-based polling aggregators (see figures below):

Earlier in the 2020 election cycle, AtlasIntel provided the most accurate forecasts of the Democratic Primary races by average RMSE, including the single best polls of New Hampshire, California, and Florida.

This unparalleled performance is a testimony of the quality of our methodology and the robustness of our innovative data collection approach. All of AtlasIntel polling in the United States has been conducted online, disproving long-standing arguments regarding the superiority of live-caller telephone interviews.

USA: National | AtlasIntel

National-level poll on vote intention for the 2024 presidential election, presidential approval rating, key topics, and evaluation of the economy and economic e

www.atlasintel.org

So the most accurate poll from the past two presidential cycles has the Republican winning the popular vote for the first time since 1988.

KABOOM.

 

[kyzr]

Polls

I remember when Trump had no way to 270...