Hard truths about President Trump.
1) He turns out democrat voters in massive numbers.
2) Women do not like him and will vote against him simply because they do not like him as an individual, and they will vote against him no matter how badly the democrats wreck the country.
3) Independents do not like him and a majority, in polls, say they will not vote for him...ever.
4) Most Americans get their understanding of Trump through the filter of democrat party media, the democrat party press, democrat party late night comedians, and they do not understand what the democrats are actually doing in this country.
5) Trump is not working 24/7/365 to convince people who did not vote for him in the last 2 elections to vote for him in this election. He is simply talking to the 39% of the republican party who will already vote for him.
6) Trump is not working 24/7/365 to secure the ballot and the vote count in this election. 2020 was an unforced error, and Trump is not trying to fix the problems that cost him the last election. He put Ronna Mcdaniel back in charge of the RNC, even though she lost the last 4 election cycles in that position, and like Trump, she is not working 24/7/365 to secure the ballot and the vote count.
7) If the democrats win the next election cycle, they will convict Trump on one of his charges, and they will put him in prison.
Those are hard truths, but they are, in fact, the truth.
Rather than "hard truths," I would call those seven items "debateable critiques of the Trump campaign probabilities of winning." They are very good points, that we all should consider. I'll comment on them.
1) I don't know that Trump turns out Democrat voters in massive numbers. Not if you define a Democrat voter as an individual Democrat honestly casting his or her one vote.
With the unknown number of ballots dumped at polls in swing states, the best we can say is that in 2020 a massive number of votes for Biden 'were cast.' There is no evidence that the extra votes counted after the polls closed were cast by individual Democrats.
In 2016, Hillary was very popular with Democrats, especially the base. Her husband's economy was good, she had been given kid glove treatment by the DOJ/FBI, and the media was touting her for being a historical 1st.
2) Yes, he will pay the price for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, also. Republicans did not really discuss the political cost because it was to save the lives of unborn children. That factor will turn the average college aged female from a likely voter to a walk uphill in a blizzard to vote voter.
3) Do those independents say that they
will vote for Biden? Doubtful. I look for them to stay home.
4) Yes.
5) Yes, at this time. I hope it is only for the primary. He has plenty of policy issues on which to pound Biden. For now, he prefers the "vote for me because they are coming after you through me" strategy. It plays to people's stubborn unwillingness to let cheaters win and then get their way.
Makes some sense because if he starts pounding on Biden, the other primary hopefuls (should I say "wishfuls") will do the same. DeSantis will have more credibility on the migrant issue than Trump. Still, I agree that he should be touting his own economy pre-COVID, and emphasizing that he will not be bamboozled by the Fauci's again.
That will be hard because of 4). Somehow the media is spinning that Biden's economy is a success. Are people really dumb enough to believe that in spite of the higher prices at the pump and their paychecks' reduced spending power due to inflation? Maybe a typical Democrat thinks "Biden's economy is great, but I'm still struggling. I must be a loser. I'll have to vote for Biden again, because I'll need welfare soon!
SNAP just had a nice COLA increase due to Bidenflation, so Dems will be pleased.
6) Election security is a big problem, but I'm not sure what Trump can do about it. State legislatures need to do something, and their own Democrats will fight hard to protect the fraud.
7) If Trump loses the election, his strategies will be to show election fraud and to delay. Because the sheer number of charges and different venues mean that however unlikely each charge is to be proven, one of them will just because of the math of probability. Reach blindly into a bucket of 999 white ping-pong balls and one black one and you would be unlikely to pick the black one. But if you do it thousands of times, it is almost impossible not to pick the black one sooner or later.
Still, I'd look for Trump to die sooner than the Demcrats can actually put him in prison. Not "I'd rather die than go to prison," but I just think it will take that long for them to do it. Still, in my above scenario, there is always the possibility of picking the black ball on the first pull.
