Fillon was never too well loved, and now many are abandoning him. The great benefactor right now looks to be Macron. He is trying to commandeer the Socialist Party's ground workings. But, seeing how many people participated in the Party's primary, and the common view that Marcon is an arriviste (never elected and always part of an apparatchik élite), things could turn against him. That would put Hamon in a solid position to face the FN. His greatest weakness is lack of experience on the grand scale.
Hamon doesn't stand a chance. A socialist, who advocates legalizing marijuana, opening France to more immigration and providing everybody a minimum salary of 600 Euros (going later to 750 Euros) to everyone when a person turns 18. He provides no estimations as to what effect his many proposals will have on the French economy and this alone could be his undoing. He will probably do well with younger voters but it's very unlikely that he faces Le Pen in the second round.
Que contient le programme de Benoît Hamon pour la présidentielle ?
.
Universal income, its emblematic measure
This is the main idea of Benoît Hamon put in place a universal basic income . The candidate has definitely managed to make one of the main topics of debate in the primary, forcing his opponents to position on the issue. And critics of the latter, on the form and substance, are clearly not enough to discredit the candidate, even if he has repeatedly changed the terms of its proposal in the final days before the vote.
En savoir plus sur
Que contient le programme de Benoît Hamon pour la présidentielle ?
May I remind that the experiment has been tried...and it was a failure.
1. The government conducted a study, 1971-1978 known as the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment, or SIME-DIME, in which low income families were give a guaranteed income, a welfare package with everything liberal policy makers could hope for. Result: for every dollar of extra welfare given, low income recipients reduced their labor by 80 cents.
http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/12794.pdf
2. [The results for husbands show that the combination of negative income tax plans tested in SIME/DIME — which, as already mentioned, represents on average a relatively generous cash transfer program with a guarantee of 115% of the poverty line and a tax rate of 50% — has a significant negative effect on hours worked per year.
Overview of the Final Report of the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment]
a. Further results: dissolution of families: “This conclusion was unambiguously unfavorable to advocates of a negative income tax that would cover married couples, for two important reasons. First, increased
marital breakups among the poor would increase the numbers on
welfare and the amount of transfer payments, principally because the
separated wife and children would receive higher transfer payments.
Second, marital dissolutions and the usual accompanying absence of
fathers from households with children are generally considered unfavorable outcomes regardless of whether or not the welfare rolls increase.”
http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf30/conf30c.pdf
b. “When families received guaranteed income at 90% of the poverty level, there was a 43% increase in black family dissolution and a 63% increase in white family dissolution. At 125% of the poverty levels, dissolutions were 75% and 40%.”
Robert B. Carleson, “Government Is The Problem,” p. 57.