Johnson End of June polls

[flacaltenn]

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I don't know why at this point Johnson doesn't get included in every poll. You have a ticket with two former state governors and they made the ballot in all 50 states. Why would you exclude them? Those qualifications alone should be enough to get them in the debates come fall and I guarantee you'd see his numbers rise even higher if he was.

 

[william the wie]

I don't know why at this point Johnson doesn't get included in every poll. You have a ticket with two former state governors and they made the ballot in all 50 states. Why would you exclude them? Those qualifications alone should be enough to get them in the debates come fall and I guarantee you'd see his numbers rise even higher if he was.

The Media is sold out for Hillary and they do most of the polling.

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

MSM is not going to spend much time on the 17% that are not swaying either way. MSM is in the pocket of the two big political parties, so Johnson numbers will be hidden as much as possible because of the fear it could make the LP the alternative political party come this November.

Also notice they are also shying away from Jill Stein and the reality is she could hurt Clinton come this November if Sanders voters feel Clinton is not the one for them.

Need to get the poll numbers of the top two in the low thirties and have Johnson and Stein rise so that it will get MSM to pay more attention to the reality that many Americans are sick of both big ticket candidates...

 

[flacaltenn]

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

MSM is not going to spend much time on the 17% that are not swaying either way. MSM is in the pocket of the two big political parties, so Johnson numbers will be hidden as much as possible because of the fear it could make the LP the alternative political party come this November.

Also notice they are also shying away from Jill Stein and the reality is she could hurt Clinton come this November if Sanders voters feel Clinton is not the one for them.

Need to get the poll numbers of the top two in the low thirties and have Johnson and Stein rise so that it will get MSM to pay more attention to the reality that many Americans are sick of both big ticket candidates...

This political season -- even the STATED choices of those polled are not solid. There is really only 1/2 of Dem party that are Clinton lemmings. That's 0.50 X 40% of registered voters. 20%. On the GOP side you have about 0.40 X 36% of registered voters that will HATE Trump but vote against Hillary. 14%

Trump BRINGS IN a lot of non-GOP support from the "don't vote very often" crowd, and independents. Can't see that much "suction" from Hillary. So give Trump another 10 to 15% in his devoted fan base..

OUTSIDE of this hard-core 34% party plus 12% Trump grassroots total --- there's still room to introduce a valid choice to the voters. About 50% of registered voters are STILL "in play"..

 

[flacaltenn]

And only 1/2 of Registered voters actually VOTE. So if folks are APPALLED at the choices -- these "hardly ever" voters just MIGHT turn out to smack down the Dem/Rep choices.

 

[depotoo]

So, just enough to give the Hill the election, more than likely..

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

 

[depotoo]

And know I don't think I can pull the lever for Trump. Still thinking...

 

[depotoo]

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

MSM is not going to spend much time on the 17% that are not swaying either way. MSM is in the pocket of the two big political parties, so Johnson numbers will be hidden as much as possible because of the fear it could make the LP the alternative political party come this November.

Also notice they are also shying away from Jill Stein and the reality is she could hurt Clinton come this November if Sanders voters feel Clinton is not the one for them.

Need to get the poll numbers of the top two in the low thirties and have Johnson and Stein rise so that it will get MSM to pay more attention to the reality that many Americans are sick of both big ticket candidates...

This political season -- even the STATED choices of those polled are not solid. There is really only 1/2 of Dem party that are Clinton lemmings. That's 0.50 X 40% of registered voters. 20%. On the GOP side you have about 0.40 X 36% of registered voters that will HATE Trump but vote against Hillary. 14%

Trump BRINGS IN a lot of non-GOP support from the "don't vote very often" crowd, and independents. Can't see that much "suction" from Hillary. So give Trump another 10 to 15% in his devoted fan base..

OUTSIDE of this hard-core 34% party plus 12% Trump grassroots total --- there's still room to introduce a valid choice to the voters. About 50% of registered voters are STILL "in play"..

It'd be nice if you are right.

 

[flacaltenn]

So, just enough to give the Hill the election, more than likely..

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

You might have missed the poll question that took 3rd parties OUT of the polling choices.

Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.

Popular misconception. We can out-Liberal a LOT of Liberals on a LOT of topics. And we actually MEAN it. So getting lefty support in THIS election cycle is not a problem.

If we were to rack up just 25 electoral votes -- In a tied race between Rep--Dem -- the LEADER would have to win by 26 electoral votes,. OR -- it goes into the House.

So for you "you're gonna elect Hillary" voters -- who do you think the House would choose?
Might not be UP to us.. And I mean -- ALL the voters when I say "us"... That "nuclear scenario" would put the LP on the spot for throwing support to EITHER candidate.

HONESTLY -- I don't know if we WOULD "form a coalition" with EITHER candidate if it went to the House.
Don't think we should..

 

[william the wie]

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

MSM is not going to spend much time on the 17% that are not swaying either way. MSM is in the pocket of the two big political parties, so Johnson numbers will be hidden as much as possible because of the fear it could make the LP the alternative political party come this November.

Also notice they are also shying away from Jill Stein and the reality is she could hurt Clinton come this November if Sanders voters feel Clinton is not the one for them.

Need to get the poll numbers of the top two in the low thirties and have Johnson and Stein rise so that it will get MSM to pay more attention to the reality that many Americans are sick of both big ticket candidates...

This political season -- even the STATED choices of those polled are not solid. There is really only 1/2 of Dem party that are Clinton lemmings. That's 0.50 X 40% of registered voters. 20%. On the GOP side you have about 0.40 X 36% of registered voters that will HATE Trump but vote against Hillary. 14%

Trump BRINGS IN a lot of non-GOP support from the "don't vote very often" crowd, and independents. Can't see that much "suction" from Hillary. So give Trump another 10 to 15% in his devoted fan base..

OUTSIDE of this hard-core 34% party plus 12% Trump grassroots total --- there's still room to introduce a valid choice to the voters. About 50% of registered voters are STILL "in play"..

It'd be nice if you are right.

When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

MSM is not going to spend much time on the 17% that are not swaying either way. MSM is in the pocket of the two big political parties, so Johnson numbers will be hidden as much as possible because of the fear it could make the LP the alternative political party come this November.

Also notice they are also shying away from Jill Stein and the reality is she could hurt Clinton come this November if Sanders voters feel Clinton is not the one for them.

Need to get the poll numbers of the top two in the low thirties and have Johnson and Stein rise so that it will get MSM to pay more attention to the reality that many Americans are sick of both big ticket candidates...

This political season -- even the STATED choices of those polled are not solid. There is really only 1/2 of Dem party that are Clinton lemmings. That's 0.50 X 40% of registered voters. 20%. On the GOP side you have about 0.40 X 36% of registered voters that will HATE Trump but vote against Hillary. 14%

Trump BRINGS IN a lot of non-GOP support from the "don't vote very often" crowd, and independents. Can't see that much "suction" from Hillary. So give Trump another 10 to 15% in his devoted fan base..

OUTSIDE of this hard-core 34% party plus 12% Trump grassroots total --- there's still room to introduce a valid choice to the voters. About 50% of registered voters are STILL "in play"..

It'd be nice if you are right.

That will become more likely to be true as Brexit clarifies..

 

[emilynghiem]

I don't know why at this point Johnson doesn't get included in every poll. You have a ticket with two former state governors and they made the ballot in all 50 states. Why would you exclude them? Those qualifications alone should be enough to get them in the debates come fall and I guarantee you'd see his numbers rise even higher if he was.

Dear Dont Taz Me Bro
If you want to change this, we'd have to do it ourselves.
it could take calling meetings between third parties and left out voters,
organize strategies, then lobby the Trump Cruz and Ryan camps.
If the Republicans with money will pay for the cost of organizing the third party and disgruntled/independent voters, why not form an agreement either to all get behind Trump if the decision is to work with him to get jobs and reforms set up to fulfill the strategies that the third parties and voters want; or to split the vote and get enough for Johnson to throw the Election to the House and get Ryan elected. So either cut a deal with Trump or Ryan if those are the two choices. But get representation and plans that the Cruz Sanders Johnson and Stein supporters want implemented into govt. Trump may be able to manage that businesswise, if the GOP will back this plan to unite the conservatives and independents. Either way, either behind Trump or Ryan, whatever the groups agree on if they can get united. though it may take GOP funding and help to organize conferences of all third party voters to get their input under the agreement that all will unite behind whatever candidate and direction is deemed the most viable.

 

[william the wie]

I don't know why at this point Johnson doesn't get included in every poll. You have a ticket with two former state governors and they made the ballot in all 50 states. Why would you exclude them? Those qualifications alone should be enough to get them in the debates come fall and I guarantee you'd see his numbers rise even higher if he was.

Dear Dont Taz Me Bro
If you want to change this, we'd have to do it ourselves.
it could take calling meetings between third parties and left out voters,
organize strategies, then lobby the Trump Cruz and Ryan camps.
If the Republicans with money will pay for the cost of organizing the third party and disgruntled/independent voters, why not form an agreement either to all get behind Trump if the decision is to work with him to get jobs and reforms set up to fulfill the strategies that the third parties and voters want; or to split the vote and get enough for Johnson to throw the Election to the House and get Ryan elected. So either cut a deal with Trump or Ryan if those are the two choices. But get representation and plans that the Cruz Sanders Johnson and Stein supporters want implemented into govt. Trump may be able to manage that businesswise, if the GOP will back this plan to unite the conservatives and independents. Either way, either behind Trump or Ryan, whatever the groups agree on if they can get united. though it may take GOP funding and help to organize conferences of all third party voters to get their input under the agreement that all will unite behind whatever candidate and direction is deemed the most viable.

That was tried in 76 and 88 and damn near destroyed the LP. Ron Paul did temporarily and intermittently destroy the Jacksonville LP caucus.88-96. No Thanks!

 

[Toro]

Latest CNN poll has Johnson at 13%, his highest level yet.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/17/rel8a.-.2016.pdf

 

[william the wie]

If the Ds have their rent a riot team out in Cleveland, as advertised not to mention the threatened demonstrations in Philadelphia Johnson could become frontrunner. that won't translate into EC victory or victory in the house if that happens but it will win seats in 2018 and more in 2020.

 

[saveliberty]

50% will not vote for Hillary, 60% will not vote for Trump and 17% will vote for Johnson. That is 127%, which is about right on the mark.

 

[ChrisL]

So, with Bernie endorsing Hillary, I wonder what effect that will have for Gary? Do you think he might pick up some of the disillusioned Bernie supporters? It's a very good possibility that many of them will turn up their noses at Hillary and go for Johnson instead.

Gary Johnson Reaches All-Time Polling High of 13% on Eve of GOP Convention

Three national presidential polls came out over the weekend, and all three contain historically good news for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson.

A four-candidate CNN/ORC survey conducted July 13-16 delivered the highest number Johnson has ever received in national poll: 13 percent (compared to Hillary Clinton's 42 percent, Donald Trump's 37, and Jill Stein's 5). And there is tangible Garymentum: Compared to the same outfit's poll one month ago, Clinton/Trump are virtually unchanged, the presumptive Green Party nominee Stein is down two percentage points, and Johnson is up four. It's also worth noting that this is the first presidential poll to be conducted after Bernie Sanders endorsed Hillary Clinton.

I don't have all the historical data at my fingertips, but it's a safe bet that 13 percent is the highest number a Libertarian Party presidential candidate has ever registered. It nudges out the 12 percent that Johnson has twice received in three-way polls that have excluded Stein, including as recently as last week's July 8-12 CBS News/New York Times survey, which had Clinton and Trump tied at 36 percent.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from July 9-13 also represents progress for Johnson, if on the milder side:

HC 41% DT 35% GJ 11% JS 6% July

HC 39% DT 38% GJ 10% JS 6% June

 

[ChrisL]

He only needs to get 15%. I think it is ridiculous that they demand a candidate have 15% before participating in the national debates. How else are these 3rd party candidates that don't receive Super PAC funding going to be seen and heard and noticed? I feel so . . . pissed about our clown elections and how we allow the two main parties to manipulate and monopolize.

 

[Zander]

I predict that Johnson/Weld will not exceed 1% of the vote and will not win even a single vote in the Electoral College.

 

[william the wie]

It depends on whether he makes the cut for the debate.

I predict that Johnson/Weld will not exceed 1% of the vote and will not win even a single vote in the Electoral College.

But given that Johnson pulls more from Hillary than Trump I would think you would be leading the cheers for him.