Dr. Phosphorous
Platinum Member
- Sep 3, 2024
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Trump is going to lose this election. He has just pissed off too many women with the overturning of Roe vs Wade.
The voting trends discussed below regarding women voters vs male voters suggests that Harris is headed towards a resounding victory.
The polls are just wrong. This election is not going to be that close. The polling models did not predict that women voters would comprise 55% or more of the total vote in battleground states like PA, MI, GA, and NC.
I predict that Harris will be the first Democrat to win the white women vote since Harry Truman in 1948.
From the Washington Post --
Tom Bonier, a senior adviser at market research firm TargetSmart, has identified a few trends suggesting that a female backlash against Trump is already underway. In particular, senior women (who would have memories of pre-Roe America) are turning out in stronger numbers, especially in Pennsylvania, than in 2020. Early voters, including in key states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, are disproportionately women — in some cases, more so than in 2020.
In addition, since Harris became the nominee, women lead men among new registrants. (This has been true in many states ever since Dobbs.) Bonier found that in the past few months, there has been a four-point gender gap in favor of women among new registrants — a five-point margin swing from the same period in 2020. New voter registrations among Black women are up three points over the same period in 2020. In Georgia, the gender gap has increased nine points since 2020. And in North Carolina, the share of new registrations among women leads that of men by seven points, a six-point increase over the same period in 2020. (One reason Harris might overperform polls is that more young women have registered since Dobbs, taking them outside the “likely voter” screens.) Her outreach to GOP women such as Cheney may be paying dividends.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/04/trump-women-abortion-election-polls/
The voting trends discussed below regarding women voters vs male voters suggests that Harris is headed towards a resounding victory.
The polls are just wrong. This election is not going to be that close. The polling models did not predict that women voters would comprise 55% or more of the total vote in battleground states like PA, MI, GA, and NC.
I predict that Harris will be the first Democrat to win the white women vote since Harry Truman in 1948.
From the Washington Post --
Tom Bonier, a senior adviser at market research firm TargetSmart, has identified a few trends suggesting that a female backlash against Trump is already underway. In particular, senior women (who would have memories of pre-Roe America) are turning out in stronger numbers, especially in Pennsylvania, than in 2020. Early voters, including in key states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, are disproportionately women — in some cases, more so than in 2020.
In addition, since Harris became the nominee, women lead men among new registrants. (This has been true in many states ever since Dobbs.) Bonier found that in the past few months, there has been a four-point gender gap in favor of women among new registrants — a five-point margin swing from the same period in 2020. New voter registrations among Black women are up three points over the same period in 2020. In Georgia, the gender gap has increased nine points since 2020. And in North Carolina, the share of new registrations among women leads that of men by seven points, a six-point increase over the same period in 2020. (One reason Harris might overperform polls is that more young women have registered since Dobbs, taking them outside the “likely voter” screens.) Her outreach to GOP women such as Cheney may be paying dividends.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/04/trump-women-abortion-election-polls/