Electoral votes: Clinton 209, Trump 154

[toomuchtime_]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

 

[kaz]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

I just wish the general would fix the screwup on the primary voters and reject them both

 

[GHook93]

Very interesting indeed:

Ohio (18)
Florida (29)
Michigan (16)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (16)
New Hampshire (4)
Missouri (10)
Maine CD2 (1)

Let's take a few off the board: AZ, MO, GA and NC are going red: Trump is at 206. There if Trump could management one of these scenarios he wins:
(1) FL, OH & PA
(2) FL, OH/PA, MI and VA/ME/WI/NVIW
(3) FL, IA, NV, WI & VA
(4) OH, PA, MI, VA

 

[SwimExpert]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

They also have Texas as barely Republican. So....

 

[toomuchtime_]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

They also have Texas as barely Republican. So....

Exactly, despite the best efforts of the Clinton campaign Texas is still in Trump's column but Michigan is no longer in Clinton's column. Do you think that's because after Trump's speech at the black church in Detroit African American voters, especially young one who haven't liked Clinton, are taking a fresh look at Trump?

 

[NYcarbineer]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

 

[toomuchtime_]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

 

[SwimExpert]

Exactly, despite the best efforts of the Clinton campaign Texas is still in Trump's column

Texas was never going to be anything but in Trump's column. Anyone believing Texas could turn blue is just as delusional as anyone New York could turn red.

 

[NYcarbineer]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

 

[toomuchtime_]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

So you believe RCP is part of the vast right wing conspiracy aka alt-right aka deplorables.

 

[NYcarbineer]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

So you believe RCP is part of the vast right wing conspiracy aka alt-right aka deplorables.

It's your link. Explain why Michigan is a toss up and South Carolina is leans Trump.

You can't. You fail.

 

[toomuchtime_]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

So you believe RCP is part of the vast right wing conspiracy aka alt-right aka deplorables.

It's your link. Explain why Michigan is a toss up and South Carolina is leans Trump.

You can't. You fail.

Michigan is trending down in the polls for Clinton and S. Carolina is trending up in the polls for Trump.

 

[NYcarbineer]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

So you believe RCP is part of the vast right wing conspiracy aka alt-right aka deplorables.

It's your link. Explain why Michigan is a toss up and South Carolina is leans Trump.

You can't. You fail.

Michigan is trending down in the polls for Clinton and S. Carolina is trending up in the polls for Trump.

You're just making shit up now. Show me where realclear uses that in its methodology.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

So you believe RCP is part of the vast right wing conspiracy aka alt-right aka deplorables.

It's your link. Explain why Michigan is a toss up and South Carolina is leans Trump.

You can't. You fail.

Michigan is trending down in the polls for Clinton and S. Carolina is trending up in the polls for Trump.

You're just making shit up now. Show me where realclear uses that in its methodology.

Nope, not making it up, but the RCP analysis is more complicated than simply following poll numbers. They break the state's population down into voter blocks, for example, white and non white, and then analyze each group's history of actually turning out at elections and then recombine the data for all the groups to get a picture of who is ahead of whom in terms of expected turnout on election day. For example, younger voters are historically less likely to vote than older voters, so if a candidate is winning because of support from younger voters, he or she may not be winning in terms of expected turnout on election day. You can get a more detailed explanation here:

RCP Demographic Interactive Map: Methodology | RealClearPolitics

 

[SwimExpert]

They moved Michigan into the tossup column with Clinton leading by 5.6 pts?

lol

Right, RCP must be part of the vast right wing conspiracy, or is it alt-right today or part of the deplorables?

They must be. They show South Carolina leaning Trump, where he's only up 3 in average,

and show Michigan as a toss up, when Hillary Clinton is up 6.5 in the average.

What else can it be, other than bias? Error?

They might be analyzing more than simple poll numbers. At +6 for Clinton, there is a greater chance that Michigan could still swing the other way, than there is of SC swinging. Don't get me wrong, I think Michigan will go blue, and I personally disagree with calling them a tossup. They haven't gone red since 1988, but SC hasn't gone blue since 1976.

Just pointing out that poll numbers aren't always the end-all-be-all to making predictions two months out.

 

[SwimExpert]

I predict Clinton in 300.

 

[GHook93]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

They also have Texas as barely Republican. So....

True. You can't always trust the polls

 

[GHook93]

I predict Clinton in 300.

I think your prediction is going to be spot on.

 

[candycorn]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

Michigan belongs to Ms. Clinton.

 

[GHook93]

RCP has just moved Michigan into the toss up column.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

Michigan belongs to Ms. Clinton.

First it is Mrs not Ms Clinton, she is still married to Slick Willie. Second not according to the polls. They have Republican governor so they show a Republican can win in a state wide election.

With Ford announcing all small car manufacturing is moving to Mexico, people in MI might like the fact that Trump wants to renegotiate NAFTA. You know the treaty Bill Clinton signed into law!