December jobs report misses expectations by more than 50%

[MarcATL]

"The US added 199,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, far lower than the 450,000 median forecast estimated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg."

US stocks slip after the December jobs report badly misses expectations

The US added 199,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, far lower than the 450,000 median estimate. Hiring faltered in December as Omicron cases surged.

markets.businessinsider.com

Afghanistan withdrawal: fail
Securing the border: fail
Covid19 reduction: fail
Economy: fail


Let's go Brandon!

Unemployment at a record 3.9%, salaries and wages rising, more and more Americans are able to seek greener pastures, stock markets soaring to new heights.

What planet are you on bucko?

Sleepy Joe Biden is kicking ass and taking names right now.

#LOLGOP #TooFunny #CLASSIC

 

[jbrownson0831]

Omicron.

Clueless Poopeypants.

 

[Missourian]

I got it from the financial and articles like these:
View attachment 584980

This is why it pays to be a part of the tribe that doesn't trust the media.

Let's say that is accurate...8.5% increase over last year.

That is based on the US Retail Spending Report...a report calculated in dollars spent...not merchandise sold... That's important.

According to the Consumer Price Index... inflation in November was government reported at 6.8% over last year. We don't have December's number yet...but if the trend for the year continues, 7.4% seems likely.

And that's the government's number, well known to be underreporting actual inflation...a number which alone nearly wipes out the 8.5% "increase" in spending.

At BEST we're left with a 1.1% increase... hardly anything to crow about...but if real inflation is 10%+...that makes it at minimum a 1.5% loss.

Now... I'll tell you right now... I'm not an economist... and macro-economic theory isn't my bailiwick...but I am a business man... And this is the way I'm looking at it...

If money is worth 10% less and spending only increased 8.5%... that's means actual spending went down...not up.

Did retailers do that great? I doubt it. I suspect many cut into their margins to avoid sticker shock for their customers.

See a flaw in my rationale here?

 

[White 6]

This is why it pays to be a part of the tribe that doesn't trust the media.

Let's say that is accurate...8.5% increase over last year.

That is based on the US Retail Spending Report...a report calculated in dollars spent...not merchandise sold... That's important.

According to the Consumer Price Index... inflation in November was government reported at 6.8% over last year. We don't have December's number yet...but if the trend for the year continues, 7.4% seems likely.

And that's the government's number, well known to be underreporting actual inflation...a number which alone nearly wipes out the 8.5% "increase" in spending.

At BEST we're left with a 1.1% increase... hardly anything to crow about...but if real inflation is 10%+...that makes it at minimum a 1.5% loss.

Now... I'll tell you right now... I'm not an economist... and macro-economic theory isn't my bailiwick...but I am a business man... And this is the way I'm looking at it...

If money is worth 10% less and spending only increased 8.5%... that's means actual spending went down...not up.

Did retailers do that great? I doubt it. I suspect many cut into their margins to avoid sticker shock for their customers.

See a flaw in my rationale here?

I understand your logic, cannot say if businesses cut margin to avoid sticker shock, but was in the mall, and specialty stores and in the traffic and parking at retail. My general impression is that a good business was being done by all. I have cut price and increased sales enough to make more money to the bottom line and so have you and still had a good season or year. How did you do? Planning on closing up shop or have you got this?

 

[Missourian]

How did you do? Planning on closing up shop or have you got this?

I made a pile of money during peak shipping season.

I lease my trucks (tractors) to FedEx and UPS. Drive one myself.

Ran 100+ loads in December.

Only 20 of them were loaded.

Several times I hauled the same set of empty trailers back and forth between terminals. My guys experienced the same to a greater or lesser degree. The operations personnel at the terminal I worked out of were legitimately shaken.

That's why I'm somewhat skeptical of a soaring economy in December... and today.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Where did you get this information.

Holiday sales soared, with e-commerce notching huge gains, a report says. (Published 2021)

Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed an 8.5 percent jump in total sales, with online ordering up 11 percent from last year.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Missourian]

Holiday sales soared, with e-commerce notching huge gains, a report says. (Published 2021)

Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed an 8.5 percent jump in total sales, with online ordering up 11 percent from last year.

www.nytimes.com

See post 23.

If you see a flaw in my reasoning, let me know.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Let's say that is accurate...8.5% increase over last year.

That is based on the US Retail Spending Report...a report calculated in dollars spent...not merchandise sold... That's important.

According to the Consumer Price Index... inflation in November was government reported at 6.8% over last year. We don't have December's number yet...but if the trend for the year continues, 7.4% seems likely.

And that's the government's number, well known to be underreporting actual inflation...a number which alone nearly wipes out the 8.5% "increase" in spending.

You are forgetting that by and away the largest part of inflation right now is energy cost, those are not included in what people spend for Christmas. The next biggest is food, which most people do not buy as presents for Christmas.

Take out food and energy and inflation for things like presents is under 5%

 

[Missourian]

You are forgetting that by and away the largest part of inflation right now is energy cost, those are not included in what people spend for Christmas. The next biggest is food, which most people do not buy as presents for Christmas.

Take out food and energy and inflation for things like presents is under 5%

That has not been my experience.

When I look up things I've bought last year, the price have increased sometimes as much as 30%.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That has not been my experience.

When I look up things I've bought last year, the price have increased sometimes as much as 30%.

I cannot argue against your personal experiences, but you asked for a flaw in your logic and I showed you on....how about we stick to the data and not anecdotes.

 

[Missourian]

I cannot argue against your personal experiences, but you asked for a flaw in your logic and I showed you on....how about we stick to the data and not anecdotes.

Have you had the same experience I have?

Check some things you bought last year and compare the price today.

 

[White 6]

I made a pile of money during peak shipping season.

I lease my trucks (tractors) to FedEx and UPS. Drive one myself.

Ran 100+ loads in December.

Only 20 of them were loaded.

Several times I hauled the same set of empty trailers back and forth between terminals. My guys experienced the same to a greater or lesser degree. The operations personnel at the terminal I worked out of were legitimately shaken.

That's why I'm somewhat skeptical of a soaring economy in December... and today.

Wow! I've sent drivers and rolling stock with some light loads that didn't pay, just to honor commitments to schedule, knowing our commitment would be repaid in trade down the road, but nothing like that.
If you're for real, that's spooky. It is definitely not like that here. I saw them up and down the street here, usually packed, of course that is the delivery trucks. They probably do send some non-paying loads to support their business model and delivery promises, like we did, and you did too, but if I only had enough for a pickup truck, I sent a pickup truck with CDL priced driver.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Have you had the same experience I have?

Check some things you bought last year and compare the price today.

At least for Christmas I cannot say I bought anything that was the same.

And outside of gas, I really do not pay that close attention to the individual prices of things I buy to remember them from one year to the next

 

[Missourian]

Wow! I've sent drivers and rolling stock with some light loads that didn't pay, just to honor commitments to schedule, knowing our commitment would be repaid in trade down the road, but nothing like that.
If you're for real, that's spooky. It is definitely not like that here. I saw them up and down the street here, usually packed, of course that is the delivery trucks. They probably do send some non-paying loads to support their business model and delivery promises, like we did, and you did too, but if I only had enough for a pickup truck, I sent a pickup truck with CDL priced driver.

It was definitely strange.

I do this every year at peak... Either FedEx or UPS.

Last year I had the exact same type of run...two turns a night between a hub and a terminal in the same state I worked in this year. It was ALWAYS two loaded pups out and usually at least one loaded pup on the return, twice a night. Hauling two empties on the return wasn't unheard of...but it was rare.

This year, same company, I swear, almost every night I hauled the same empty trailers at least three legs. The most loaded trailers I did in one night was three. Empties in, a loaded set out, empties back and a loaded and an empty out.

Only a couple of nights like that... the rest of the nights it was empties out, empties back, empties out, a loaded and an empty back.

It was freaky.

I'm was the only one doing the double turn so for me the lack of freight was more pronounced. It's seven nights a week for 30 days away from home all night driving. My guys are used to running flatbed which is typically daytime running...so they do single turns that are a little longer.

Their experience tended to consist of one loaded/one empty out and a set of empties back with a loaded set out salted in for variety but not the norm... Not quite as bad...but significantly different from last year.

But like Golfing Gator said... anecdotes ain't data...

We'll know more when the Post Peak Shipping Report is released whether this was regional or nationwide.

 

[Missourian]

At least for Christmas I cannot say I bought anything that was the same.

And outside of gas, I really do not pay that close attention to the individual prices of things I buy to remember them from one year to the next

While we might be pretty close in age...my folks had me late. They were both born during the depression...so pinching pennies was instilled in me at an early age...and a lot of diy to boot. My Old Man has a PhD... But never hesitated to build sheds, lay bricks, shovel gravel to make walking paths, clean the gutters...I honestly don't ever remember them paying anyone to do anything but electrical wiring.

My Dad's favorite saying.

If it's broke, try to fix it.
If you can't fix it, we didn't need it anyway.

Anyhow... It's a hard habit to break...to the point that my wife says if I worked the days I took off to fix things or build things I could pay someone else to do it and still come out way ahead...

...but where's the fun in that?

 

[candycorn]

"The US added 199,000 nonfarm payrolls last month,

We added jobs last month. Cool.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Unemployment at a record 3.9%, salaries and wages rising, more and more Americans are able to seek greener pastures, stock markets soaring to new heights.

What planet are you on bucko?

Sleepy Joe Biden is kicking ass and taking names right now.

#LOLGOP #TooFunny #CLASSIC

Even you are not this stupid.
Right now. There are 4.2 million less people employed than there was January 2020 pre-covid.
Labor participation is 6% less.
The 3.9% is what it is due to 6% less people being counted as unemployed... that had a job Jan 2020,,, but have been unemployed so long - they are no longer counted.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

but have been unemployed so long - they are no longer counted.

That is not how it works.

If they are seeking work, they are still counted

 

[FireFly]

Unemployment at a record 3.9%, salaries and wages rising, more and more Americans are able to seek greener pastures, stock markets soaring to new heights.

What planet are you on bucko?

Sleepy Joe Biden is kicking ass and taking names right now.

#LOLGOP #TooFunny #CLASSIC

Yup! Plus the revisions add almost as much as the headline number, so Biden met expectations.

 

[citygator]

On Monday if Alabama wins by 1 point… half the spread, they will still win. We had a great jobs report in December.