Are u nuts?
Jobs that were paying minimum wage are being offered at $17.50 an hour up here, and still have openings! Cashiers starting at $17.50 and no one to fill the jobs!
It's a part of our country's inflation problem....wage increases, to find workers.
Bingo.
September’s nonfarm payrolls number was good news for the economy but bad news for the Federal Reserve and markets. Let’s summarize the current
*counterintuitive* situation below.
The Fed is trying to
bring down inflation, and a tight labor market makes doing that extremely hard. Many jobs and few available workers create an environment where labor has the upper hand. As a result, workers can bargain for higher pay and more incentives.
While this is great in theory, especially given the current wealth gap in society, it creates upward inflation pressure. Companies’ input costs go up, so they raise the prices of the goods/services they sell. And on the demand side, higher wages for workers mean more demand, which also pushes up prices.
That is the opposite of what the Fed is trying to do. Its policies are attempting to crush demand enough that unemployment increases and the prices of homes and other major goods decrease.
So while the White House is happy about
September nonfarm payrolls rising 263k and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5%, the Fed and the stock market are not.
How does this all tie back to the stock market and today’s decline?
Well, upward inflationary pressure means the Fed will have to keep tightening financial conditions aggressively until it sees meaningful progress. Higher interest rates put pressure on the stock market because the risk-free rate of return (or discount rate) that’s used in every financial model goes up, reducing the value of most other assets.
This is why we saw tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fall almost 4% today, and companies like
$META make fresh year-to-date lows.
There are
still some signs the labor market is beginning to soften, but it’s doing so slowly. As a result, markets expect interest rates will have to stay higher for longer, and stocks don’t love that.