Crime, incarceration, politics, religion and education

[frigidweirdo]

Do all these things effect each other? Does crime rise because education is worse? Is education worse because of politics or is it worse because of religion or both?

A lot of nonsense gets banded around on forums like these. So I'm going to make some summaries, then present the statistics in a different post.

Here are some summaries.

Crime is higher Republican states, and it's higher in states with more religious people too.

Incarceration is higher in Republican states and it's higher in states which are religion, and lower in those that are Democrat and less religious

Religion is higher in Republican states and lower in Democrat states

Education is higher in Democrat states and it's higher in states with less religious people.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Here are the sources used

Mississippi Most Religious State, Vermont Least Religious
Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
State of the States: Political Party Affiliation
List of U.S. states by incarceration rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of U.S. states by educational attainment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
U. S. Crime and Imprisonment Statistics Total and by State 1960 - 2013

 

[frigidweirdo]

Here are some of the stats for crime


Average crime rates based on how many Republicans there are as Governor, State House and State Senate (except Nebraska which is unicamera, even though it's non-partisan, it's mostly Republican in reality).

States with 3 Reps = 3107

States with 2 Reps = 2788

States with 1 Rep = 2521

States with less than 1 Rep = 2777


Crime rates based on a Gallop poll about how the states leaned in the 2008 Presidential election

Top 10 Republican leaning states average crime rate = 2955.79

2nd 10 Republican leaning states average crime rate = 3405.1

3rd 10 Republican leaning states average crime rate = 2941.17

4th 10 Republican leaning states average crime rate = 2649.35

Bottom 10 Republican leaning states average crime rate = 2553.93


Crime rates based on a Gallop poll into how many people are "very religious" in each state

Top 10 religious states average crime rates = 3557

2nd 10 religious states average crime rates = 2689

3rd 10 religious states average crime rates = 2864

4th 10 religious states average crime rates =2757

Bottom 10 religious states average crime rates = 2636


Average crime rate of states based on how many times they voted Republican in Presidential elections in the last 4 Presidential elections

4 = 3109

3 = 2792

2 = 3053

1 = 3253

0 = 2582

 

[there4eyeM]

In cultures where people respect themselves and others, most social issues are eventually resolved amicably.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Here are some of the stats for incarceration


Average incarceration rates based on how many Republicans there are as Governor, State House and State Senate (except Nebraska which is unicamera, even though it's non-partisan, it's mostly Republican in reality).


States with 3 Reps = 911

States with 2 Reps = 745

States with 1 Rep = 586

States with less than 1 Rep = 607



Incarceration rates based on a Gallop poll about how the states leaned in the 2008 Presidential election

Top 10 Republican leaning states average incarceration rate = 882

2nd 10 Republican leaning states average incarceration rate = 1007

3rd 10 Republican leaning states average incarceration rate = 792

4th 10 Republican leaning states average incarceration rate = 610

Bottom 10 Republican leaning states average incarceration rate = 599



Incarceration rates based on a Gallop poll into how many people are "very religious" in each state


Top 10 religious states average incarceration rates = 1064

2nd 10 religious states average incarceration rates = 754

3rd 10 religious states average incarceration rates =737

4th 10 religious states average incarceration rates =798

Bottom 10 religious states average incarceration rates = 537



Average incarceration rate of states based on how many times they voted Republican in Presidential elections in the last 4 Presidential elections


4 = 942

3 = 700

2 =716

1 = 755

0 = 609

 

[The Great Goose]

Do all these things effect each other? Does crime rise because education is worse? Is education worse because of politics or is it worse because of religion or both?

A lot of nonsense gets banded around on forums like these. So I'm going to make some summaries, then present the statistics in a different post.

Here are some summaries.

Crime is higher Republican states, and it's higher in states with more religious people too.

Incarceration is higher in Republican states and it's higher in states which are religion, and lower in those that are Democrat and less religious

Religion is higher in Republican states and lower in Democrat states

Education is higher in Democrat states and it's higher in states with less religious people.

It's "bandied about"

 

[there4eyeM]

Is that necessary?

 

[frigidweirdo]

Here are some of the stats for high school graduation rates


Average high school graduation rates based on how many Republicans there are as Governor, State House and State Senate (except Nebraska which is unicamera, even though it's non-partisan, it's mostly Republican in reality).



3 Republicans average high school graduation rates = 86.25

2 Republicans average high school graduation rates = 87.15

1 Republicans average high school graduation rates = 88.63

Less than 1 Republicans average high school graduation rates = 86.63




High school graduation rates based on a Gallop poll about how the states leaned in the 2008 Presidential election


Top 10 religious states average high school graduation rates = 83.94

2nd 10 religious states average high school graduation rates = 86.95

3rd 10 religious states average high school graduation rates =87.36

4th 10 religious states average high school graduation rates =87.74

Bottom 10 religious states average high school graduation rates = 88.14




High school graduation rates based on a Gallop poll into how many people are "very religious" in each state



Top 10 religious states average high school graduation rates = 83.94

2nd 10 religious states average high school graduation rates = 86.95

3rd 10 religious states average high school graduation rates =87.36

4th 10 religious states average high school graduation rates =87.74

Bottom 10 religious states average high school graduation rates = 88.14




Average high school graduation rate of states based on how many times they voted Republican in Presidential elections in the last 4 Presidential elections


4 = 86

3 = 87.4

2 = 86.9

1 = 87.1

0 = 87.66

 

[frigidweirdo]

Here are some of the stats for bachelor's graduation rates


Average bachelor's rates based on how many Republicans there are as Governor, State House and State Senate (except Nebraska which is unicamera, even though it's non-partisan, it's mostly Republican in reality).



3 Republicans average bachelor’s graduation rates = 25.41

2 Republicans average bachelor’s graduation rates = 25.71

1 Republicans average bachelor’s graduation rates = 34.4

Less than 1 Republicans average bachelor’s graduation rates = 30.87





Bachelor's graduation rates based on a Gallop poll about how the states leaned in the 2008 Presidential election



Top 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates = 23.22

2nd 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates = 25.99

3rd 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates =28.91

4th 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates =29.05

Bottom 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates = 30.58





Bachelor's graduation rates based on a Gallop poll into how many people are "very religious" in each state




Top 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates = 23.22

2nd 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates = 25.99

3rd 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates =28.91

4th 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates =29.05

Bottom 10 religious states average bachelor’s graduation rates = 30.58





Average Bachelor's graduation rate of states based on how many times they voted Republican in Presidential elections in the last 4 Presidential elections


4 = 24

3 = 27

2 = 32.86

1 = 25.2

0 = 30.66

 

[NightFox]

Do all these things effect each other? Does crime rise because education is worse? Is education worse because of politics or is it worse because of religion or both?

Of course education affects crime, a less educated population is less economically productive and will tend to attract less capital investment and thus is more vulnerable to criminality among it's population. As far as religions effect on education, that is highly variable depending on the specifics of the religious practices of the population involved.

A lot of nonsense gets banded around on forums like these. So I'm going to make some summaries, then present the statistics in a different post.

Here are some summaries.

Crime is higher Republican states, and it's higher in states with more religious people too.

Incarceration is higher in Republican states and it's higher in states which are religion, and lower in those that are Democrat and less religious

Religion is higher in Republican states and lower in Democrat states

Education is higher in Democrat states and it's higher in states with less religious people.

Perhaps you need to reminded of the fact that correlation does not imply causation, the dynamics of state economies are far more complex than which of the two major political parties dominate a given states political structure. One could go through at a micro scale and tick off all the major cities whose crime and education are lackluster that have been dominated by Democrats and the list would be extremely lengthy, however that would imply that government policies are solely responsible for the economic status of a given geographic area, which is complete nonsense and doesn't do anything to determine the root cause of the problems.

 

[Rozman]

I'm guessing the point of the OP is....

Democrats are better then Republicans....
And White people are the devil
Blacks don't commit any crimes but yet there are more of them in jail....

Is this pretty much it?

 

[LoneLaugher]

I'm guessing the point of the OP is....

Democrats are better then Republicans....
And White people are the devil
Blacks don't commit any crimes but yet there are more of them in jail....

Is this pretty much it?

Let me help you. There are not more black people than white people in jail. What you want to discuss are percentages relative to overall population. The percentage of black people in jail is higher. We wouldn't want to get the impression that a visit to a jail would be an all black experience, would we?

Question for you. Black people make up about 13% of the US population.....but make up about 17% of the US military. Does that mean that black Americans are, by percentage, more patriotic than white Americans?

 

[Wyatt earp]

Do all these things effect each other? Does crime rise because education is worse? Is education worse because of politics or is it worse because of religion or both?

A lot of nonsense gets banded around on forums like these. So I'm going to make some summaries, then present the statistics in a different post.

Here are some summaries.

Crime is higher Republican states, and it's higher in states with more religious people too.

Incarceration is higher in Republican states and it's higher in states which are religion, and lower in those that are Democrat and less religious

Religion is higher in Republican states and lower in Democrat states

Education is higher in Democrat states and it's higher in states with less religious people.

This is the most meaningless thread ever. What is the basis for jail? You jaywalk down here and most counties you spend the night in jail and wait to see the magistrate in the morning , not like up north where you are out in a few hours.

 

[Wyatt earp]

I'm guessing the point of the OP is....

Democrats are better then Republicans....
And White people are the devil
Blacks don't commit any crimes but yet there are more of them in jail....

Is this pretty much it?

Let me help you. There are not more black people than white people in jail. What you want to discuss are percentages relative to overall population. The percentage of black people in jail is higher. We wouldn't want to get the impression that a visit to a jail would be an all black experience, would we?

Question for you. Black people make up about 13% of the US population.....but make up about 17% of the US military. Does that mean that black Americans are, by percentage, more patriotic than white Americans?

No it means they are poor and trying to get a free education.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I'm guessing the point of the OP is....

Democrats are better then Republicans....
And White people are the devil
Blacks don't commit any crimes but yet there are more of them in jail....

Is this pretty much it?

Let me help you. There are not more black people than white people in jail. What you want to discuss are percentages relative to overall population. The percentage of black people in jail is higher. We wouldn't want to get the impression that a visit to a jail would be an all black experience, would we?

Question for you. Black people make up about 13% of the US population.....but make up about 17% of the US military. Does that mean that black Americans are, by percentage, more patriotic than white Americans?

No it means they are poor and trying to get a free education.

Why do you hate our troops?

 

[frigidweirdo]

Do all these things effect each other? Does crime rise because education is worse? Is education worse because of politics or is it worse because of religion or both?

Of course education affects crime, a less educated population is less economically productive and will tend to attract less capital investment and thus is more vulnerable to criminality among it's population. As far as religions effect on education, that is highly variable depending on the specifics of the religious practices of the population involved.

A lot of nonsense gets banded around on forums like these. So I'm going to make some summaries, then present the statistics in a different post.

Here are some summaries.

Crime is higher Republican states, and it's higher in states with more religious people too.

Incarceration is higher in Republican states and it's higher in states which are religion, and lower in those that are Democrat and less religious

Religion is higher in Republican states and lower in Democrat states

Education is higher in Democrat states and it's higher in states with less religious people.

Perhaps you need to reminded of the fact that correlation does not imply causation, the dynamics of state economies are far more complex than which of the two major political parties dominate a given states political structure. One could go through at a micro scale and tick off all the major cities whose crime and education are lackluster that have been dominated by Democrats and the list would be extremely lengthy, however that would imply that government policies are solely responsible for the economic status of a given geographic area, which is complete nonsense and doesn't do anything to determine the root cause of the problems.

Education effects crime, Republican states are less likely to have such good education, at the level of getting kids through High School there isn't so much of a difference, maybe 2% more kids are going to fail compared with other states, when it comes to Bachelor's this goes up to maybe 10%. That's a lot.

So, education isn't as good in Republican states, crime is higher in Republican states. Could we say this is down to Republican policy?
Incarceration is also higher in these states, is this policy or because they're more crime? Well probably a bit of both.

No, I don't need reminding that sometimes correlation doesn't imply causation.

However when you see the same patterns over and over and over and over again, you have to wonder if policy is behind this.

I believe it is so to a certain extent.

 

[frigidweirdo]

I'm guessing the point of the OP is....

Democrats are better then Republicans....
And White people are the devil
Blacks don't commit any crimes but yet there are more of them in jail....

Is this pretty much it?

No, the point isn't that Democrats are better than Republicans at all.

The point of the OP is about whether there is a correlation between different factors. Also part of the point is to be able to use facts to defeat those people who continually spend their whole time slamming policies without ever understanding the impact of those policies.

At no point did I mention race. You did.

 

[NightFox]

So, education isn't as good in Republican states, crime is higher in Republican states. Could we say this is down to Republican policy?

You can say it all you want, however it won't change the fact that correlation doesn't imply causation. You're not even taking into account that "Republican policy" isn't a uniform (or an even sharply defined) thing, you would also be discounting the fact that many cities in those "Republican States" are run by Democrat dominated governments and poor education and crime tend to be bigger problems in heavy urban areas. The only thing you *might* be able to claim with any degree of accuracy is that certain common state policies have an effect, however I suspect that you don't have any idea what these states have in common with respect to exact policies implemented at the state level.

However when you see the same patterns over and over and over and over again, you have to wonder if policy is behind this.

You'd first have to know what polici(es) you're talking about since at the state level there is no such thing as a uniform "Republican Policy", frankly I believe your hypothesis is essentially worthless since the variables that effect these particular questions are many and the interactions of those variables are far more complex than simplistic partisanship.

 

[frigidweirdo]

So, education isn't as good in Republican states, crime is higher in Republican states. Could we say this is down to Republican policy?

You can say it all you want, however it won't change the fact that correlation doesn't imply causation. You're not even taking into account that "Republican policy" isn't a uniform (or an even sharply defined) thing, you would also be discounting the fact that many cities in those "Republican States" are run by Democrat dominated governments and poor education and crime tend to be bigger problems in heavy urban areas. The only thing you *might* be able to claim with any degree of accuracy is that certain common state policies have an effect, however I suspect that you don't have any idea what these states have in common with respect to exact policies implemented at the state level.

However when you see the same patterns over and over and over and over again, you have to wonder if policy is behind this.

You'd first have to know what polici(es) you're talking about since at the state level there is no such thing as a uniform "Republican Policy", frankly I believe your hypothesis is essentially worthless since the variables that effect these particular questions are many and the interactions of those variables are far more complex than simplistic partisanship.

How do you know what I am and am not taking into account?

While Republican policy isn't uniform, what we're looking at are averages. And when we're looking at averages, we're looking at the average of the Republican Party. Some Republican states, like North Dakota have low crime, low incarceration rates, high school graduation rates of 90%+ and 25% bachelor's degree rates.

There are plenty of factors to take in with North Dakota, like that it doesn't have a large city, 105,000 Fargo being the largest.

However, again, we're dealing with averages. For every North Dakota, there's a Vermont, low crime, high education standards, small largest city (Burlington at 42,000). And for every Louisiana there's a Delaware, high crime, lower education standards.

Also, I'm not saying that all Republicans are the same. I'm not saying that every Republican has the same policies. However I'd say on average you're going to see similar policies within the parties.

Yes, there are big cities, and the big cities tend to be Democrat based, and it is where a large amount of crime is. However when republicans are in charge of the state, what are they doing for the cities?

There are four cities over 2 million people on this list

List of United States cities by crime rate (2014) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Houston, in a Republican state, has the worst violent crime, second worst murder, 2nd worst rape, worst robbery, worst aggravated assault, worst property crime, worst burglary, worst larceny/theft, worst motor vehicle theft and worst arson. But they still have a Democratic Mayor, the city council is supposedly non-partisan.

Seven cities have between 1 million and 2 million. Three are in Democrat states, three are in Republican states, and one is in Nevada which is either Republican or 50/50 depending on how you look at it. For violent crime, murder, rape and robbery Philly is the worst, for the other factors it's Republican states.

I'm not saying Democrats have the answers here. They don't. What I'm saying is that on average Republicans don't make things better.

We get told that locking people up is the answer to dealing with crime. This is a Republican policy.

Top ten states for locking people up in order with their respective crime rate.
Louisiana 3973.5
Oklahoma 3396.7
Mississippi 3199.7
Alabama 3605
Georgia 3658.5
Texas 3425.3
Arizona 3597.4
Arkansas 3818.1
Florida 3956
New Mexico 4139.7

What do these states have in common? At least 2 of the three elected parts of state government are Republican, most have all three. The top eight voted Republican for the last 4 times in presidential elections, Florida twice and New Mexico once.

There are states that are more Republican leaning that aren't in the top 10, this isn't a "the more Republican you are, the more crime you have, the more you lock people up", however on average Republicans aren't doing a good job.

 

[frigidweirdo]

You'd first have to know what polici(es) you're talking about since at the state level there is no such thing as a uniform "Republican Policy", frankly I believe your hypothesis is essentially worthless since the variables that effect these particular questions are many and the interactions of those variables are far more complex than simplistic partisanship.

And I'd say this is exactly the problem with US politics. You're saying the facts are worthless.

Yes, what I've presented is only a basic. However it says a lot.

Do you think there is something wrong with general Republican policy?

Do you think that policies which put more emphasis on locking people up, rather than education, is the way forward? It's clear some Republican states do this, and it's clear it doesn't work. Louisiana is the PERFECT example.