The Recent Changes in CBOs Baseline Reflect Trends That Have Developed Over the Past Few Years
In recent years, health care spending has grown much more slowly both nationally and for federal programs than historical rates would have indicated. For example, in 2012, federal spending for Medicare and Medicaid was about 5 percent below the amount that CBO had projected in March 2010.
In response to that slowdown, over the past several years CBO has made a series of downward adjustments to its projections of spending for Medicaid and Medicare. For example, from the March 2010 baseline to the current baseline, technical revisionsmostly reflecting the slower growth in the programs spending in recent yearshave lowered CBOs estimates of federal spending for the two programs in 2020 by about $200 billionby $126 billion for Medicare and by $78 billion for Medicaid, or by roughly 15 percent for each program.