Col. Richard Black: U.S. Leading World to Nuclear War

[ESay]

No. Russia has already taken most of the Donbas. Do you not know this?

Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Bahmut, Avdeevka. And now try to find these cities on a map and get to know what is going on there.

 

[gipper]

Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Bahmut, Avdeevka. And now try to find these cities on a map and get to know what is going on there.

If this can be believed, it looks like Russia has taken much of the Donbass.

Institute for the Study of War

 

[ESay]

If this can be believed, it looks like Russia has taken much of the Donbass.

Institute for the Study of War

Don't change the talking points. Russia is heavily shelling cities in Donbas which it is trying to take. The names of them I already provided.

 

[para bellum]

The UK is offering to provide M270 tracked launchers to go with the HIMARS from the US. They use the same pods but double stacked so they carry 12 rockets vs. HIMARS 6.

Reuters is reporting the MQ-1C drone is coming. This is a high endurance package with a lot of SIGINT and image processing capability plus 8 x hellfire missile. These would be significant force multipliers for the GPS guided artillery because they can collect precise targeting data over a huge area.

EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources

The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.

www.reuters.com

 

[para bellum]

Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Bahmut, Avdeevka. And now try to find these cities on a map and get to know what is going on there.

The Ukraine General staff has followed a "bend but don't break" strategy, and they're sticking to it. It's hard, but they can give ground and shorten their defensive lines right now. The Russia side isn't getting anything for free.

It was clear in the start that the immediate need was the WarPac equipment and ammunition. It was also known that there was no supply for new ammunition, and the switchover was going to take a few months to gain some steam.

The ammunition for the soviet era stuff is basically expended except for a little bit that trickles in from eastern European countries. That's prevented the Ukrainians from hitting back like they otherwise could.

The NATO standard stuff starting to get rolling now, and the pace is the training pace.

Back when the US agreed to eliminate intermediate range missiles, we needed to fill the gap. We poured a huge amount of resources into modernizing our artillery. What's entering the fight in the coming weeks, each piece can cover a large area of land. There's going to be at least a dozen of the long range M30/M31 GMRLS launchers, and much better military-grade drones to work with them. Plus a whole bunch of Self propelled howitzers with GPS guided munitions.

These are long range sniper systems- 98% first shot hits within 3m at any range. That's going to make all those massed Russian artillery positions completely untenable, and put the northern and southern MSR's in range.

It's as you ask- how far will the Russians get? That's the big question- it's all about how fast the Ukrainian crews can be trained up. I like the change in tone from Germany, but I am cautious. We'll see if it translates to deliveries, there is still a lot of fear of 'too-much Ukrainian success' among the surrender caucus...

 

[ESay]

The Ukraine General staff has followed a "bend but don't break" strategy, and they're sticking to it. It's hard, but they can give ground and shorten their defensive lines right now. The Russia side isn't getting anything for free.

It was clear in the start that the immediate need was the WarPac equipment and ammunition. It was also known that there was no supply for new ammunition, and the switchover was going to take a few months to gain some steam.

The ammunition for the soviet era stuff is basically expended except for a little bit that trickles in from eastern European countries. That's prevented the Ukrainians from hitting back like they otherwise could.

The NATO standard stuff starting to get rolling now, and the pace is the training pace.

Back when the US agreed to eliminate intermediate range missiles, we needed to fill the gap. We poured a huge amount of resources into modernizing our artillery. What's entering the fight in the coming weeks, each piece can cover a large area of land. There's going to be at least a dozen of the long range M30/M31 GMRLS launchers, and much better military-grade drones to work with them. Plus a whole bunch of Self propelled howitzers with GPS guided munitions.

These are long range sniper systems- 98% first shot hits within 3m at any range. That's going to make all those massed Russian artillery positions completely untenable, and put the northern and southern MSR's in range.

It's as you ask- how far will the Russians get? That's the big question- it's all about how fast the Ukrainian crews can be trained up. I like the change in tone from Germany, but I am cautious. We'll see if it translates to deliveries, there is still a lot fear of 'too-much Ukrainian success' among the surrender caucus...

Yes, MLR systems have been approved to be delivered. At the first stage, four MLRS will be delivered as a some sort of training devices for Ukrainian army. Maybe, in the coming month the first results will present themselves.

 

[gipper]

Don't change the talking points. Russia is heavily shelling cities in Donbas which it is trying to take. The names of them I already provided.

Got any proof to back that statement?

 

[ESay]

Got any proof to back that statement?

Are you kidding me, dude? Just use Google search.

 

[gipper]

Are you kidding me, dude? Just use Google search.

Uh no. The msm has proven itself entirely unreliable and promotes propaganda on this war. Nearly everything they report is lies.

 

[ESay]

Uh no. The msm has proven itself entirely unreliable and promotes propaganda on this war. Nearly everything they report is lies.

Sure, mate. Try RT. It will suit you better.

 

[gipper]

Sure, mate. Try RT. It will suit you better.

Lol. Sure thing.

 

[para bellum]

Yes, MLR systems have been approved to be delivered. At the first stage, four MLRS will be delivered as a some sort of training devices for Ukrainian army. Maybe, in the coming month the first results will present themselves.

What's coming online now are the self propelled howitzers and GPS guided munitions. 40km, not 70km like the missiles, but they are deadly accurate. There are M109's in Ukraine from the US that aren't on any list. The ammunition is also compatible with the towed M777's that have the digital fire control computers.

None of that was there a month ago.

The recently announced MRLS:

4 ea. M142 HIMARS from the US. 4 ea. M270 from the UK. 4 ea. MARS II (improved M270) from Germany. Training and acquisition/sustainment for HIMARS was funded in the Lend-Lease bill. The USMC went to all HIMARS so there are 200 more M270's available in US inventory.

They all use the same missile pack. The M270 tracked launcher carry two packs of 6, the HIMARS wheeled launcher carries one pack. They all have self-loaders, so reloading is just changing the empty pack out for a full one.

Training on HIMARS takes one week (so they say, but that must be pretty rudimentary) and should be underway in Poland already. I know that the follow-on missiles for the MRLS systems will probably have to be pulled from Lockheed's production allocated to Poland and/or Australia. With all that, the first HIMARS should be deployable in June. (Germany's 4 pcs. will take longer than that...)

plus:

4 ea. MQ-1C Drones that can carry 4 ea, Hellfire or 8 ea. Stinger missile. Organic ELINT and ECM/EW capability, laser designator, and can geolocate any electronic emitter in it's area of regard. Kills tanks and helicopters and drones, ID's targets and can stay aloft for ~30 hours. Not confirmed, but it was written specifically into the bill so it should not be a problem in the Congress. These will take a little time to train the Ukrainian pilots and handlers, but not months if they already know how to fly TB2's.

The other eastern European countries take years, even decades to switch over to NATO standard- we're trying to do this in Ukraine practically overnite. Everything is different, and the whole thing is a logistical nightmare.

I think people in the west are seeing what the delays have meant for Ukraine, and there is a doubling down on the effort. Ukraine's success in March made some people complacent (and others frightened).

 

[para bellum]

Yes, MLR systems have been approved to be delivered. At the first stage, four MLRS will be delivered as a some sort of training devices for Ukrainian army. Maybe, in the coming month the first results will present themselves.

Just saw this tweet from an ABC reporter Esay. Saying the training is already underway at an "undisclosed location" outside the USA (likely Poland).

 

[ESay]

What's coming online now are the self propelled howitzers and GPS guided munitions. 40km, not 70km like the missiles, but they are deadly accurate. There are M109's in Ukraine from the US that aren't on any list. The ammunition is also compatible with the towed M777's that have the digital fire control computers.

None of that was there a month ago.

The recently announced MRLS:

4 ea. M142 HIMARS from the US. 4 ea. M270 from the UK. 4 ea. MARS II (improved M270) from Germany. Training and acquisition/sustainment for HIMARS was funded in the Lend-Lease bill. The USMC went to all HIMARS so there are 200 more M270's available in US inventory.

They all use the same missile pack. The M270 tracked launcher carry two packs of 6, the HIMARS wheeled launcher carries one pack. They all have self-loaders, so reloading is just changing the empty pack out for a full one.

Training on HIMARS takes one week (so they say, but that must be pretty rudimentary) and should be underway in Poland already. I know that the follow-on missiles for the MRLS systems will probably have to be pulled from Lockheed's production allocated to Poland and/or Australia. With all that, the first HIMARS should be deployable in June. (Germany's 4 pcs. will take longer than that...)

plus:

4 ea. MQ-1C Drones that can carry 4 ea, Hellfire or 8 ea. Stinger missile. Organic ELINT and ECM/EW capability, laser designator, and can geolocate any electronic emitter in it's area of regard. Kills tanks and helicopters and drones, ID's targets and can stay aloft for ~30 hours. Not confirmed, but it was written specifically into the bill so it should not be a problem in the Congress. These will take a little time to train the Ukrainian pilots and handlers, but not months if they already know how to fly TB2's.

The other eastern European countries take years, even decades to switch over to NATO standard- we're trying to do this in Ukraine practically overnite. Everything is different, and the whole thing is a logistical nightmare.

I think people in the west are seeing what the delays have meant for Ukraine, and there is a doubling down on the effort. Ukraine's success in March made some people complacent (and others frightened).

Yeah, thanks for explanation. I have read about the British MLRS and about the drones. I am a bit sceptical about the German ones, though. Also, it is hard for me to distinguish between the Western types of hardware, I am more used to the Soviet ones.

 

[para bellum]

Yeah, thanks for explanation. I have read about the British MLRS and about the drones. I am a bit sceptical about the German ones, though. Also, it is hard for me to distinguish between the Western types of hardware, I am more used to the Soviet ones.

You have every reason to be skeptical wrt Germany. I think that Scholz and Macron came away from their call with Putin disappointed- The other day Scholz went out of his way to emphasize the "heavy" in heavy weapons for Ukraine, so maybe the message has finally made it through his thick skull. Hope springs eternal...

I forgot about the Polish SPH's. AHS Krab uses a British 155mm turret on a South Korean chassis. 18 of those in Ukraine and something like 60 more on order. 12 x PzH2000 from the Netherlands and Germany (training is completed on those), 12 x Caesar from France (6 already in theater, 6 on the way), 20 x M109's from Norway plus unknown qty from the US.

These all have different fire control systems, but they are interoperable through a NATO standard called ASCA. That allows them to pass targeting information digitally and coordinate fires. The drones tie this all together into a cohesive network.

Partner nations evaluate digital call-for-fires at Bold Quest - USAASC

By Mrs. Nancy Jones-Bonbrest FORT BLISS, Texas (Oct. 13, 2015) -- The thunder of artillery echoed across the New Mexico desert, but this was not a normal Army training mission. Instead artillery units representing seven countries were participating in a live-fire event. For the first time...

asc.army.mil

The MQ-1C drones were developed specifically to embed with artillery divisions and are tailored to that role. In addition to the tactical strike, they can jam enemy radars and communications, perform precise target mapping and show changes in terrain. They can flyover one day, then do another flyover the next day, and by comparing the images they can detect recent activity. They can locate buried mines and IED's, spot vehicle tracks, etc. Very useful for advancing forces and BDA on high-value targets.

I have been very impressed with Ukraine's artillery forces- they are really, really good. The weapons they are receiving are light years ahead of the soviet era stuff. They may look the same on paper, but in effectiveness the NATO stuff is way out front.

When the Ukrainians get dialed in on these new systems it's going to be a wild ride for the Russian side.

*** There are 4 HIMARS sitting on the ramp at Joint Base Lewis-McChord this morning....

 

[para bellum]

Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Bahmut, Avdeevka. And now try to find these cities on a map and get to know what is going on there.

Esay, it seems your side isn't going to walk away from SDonetsk without extracting a pound of flesh.

 

[ESay]

Esay, it seems your side isn't going to walk away from SDonetsk without extracting a pound of flesh.

Yes, I have read about that. Of course, I wish them further successes. Another good information comes from the Kherson direction. Ukrainian troops have made some advances there on the right bank of the Dnieper.

 

[the other mike]

Except if Russia strikes first giving you no warning then gone New York for about 500 years and gone most cities in the US and Nuclear bunkers or wherever you keep them.

Very eye-opening ....thank you for posting.

 

[gipper]

Good column here 'Not A Justification But A Provocation': Chomsky On Root Causes Of The Russia-Ukraine War | ZeroHedge

It includes the reasons why most Americans know nothing about the reasons and causes of this war. As always in war, our government is lying to us. They are playing nuclear brinkmanship with Russia, but the American people don’t know it.

 

[the other mike]

Putin may have screwed up. Had he waited a little longer and Ukraine‘s army invaded Donbass then Putin goes in, the world might look at this a bit differently.

However most Americans know nothing about the coup by Obama, Biden, and Nuland in 2014 and the murdering of 14,000 ethnic Russians in the Donbass by Ukraine since the coup. So it’s likely the western media would twist any action by Putin as bad.

Most Americans are kept in the dark by a well-controlled media about the entire history of the world , especially the Middle East going back to Iran in 1953.

Afghanistan is technically Southeast Asia and then we have troops in 150 some odd other countries in Africa and everywhere else.
Libya was the richest African nation until we f***** them up