"Estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observed climate change, climate models and feedback analysis, as well as paleoclimate evidence indicate that ECS is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C with high confidence, extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence) and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence). The transient climate response (TCR) is likely in the range 1°C to 2.5ºC and
extremely unlikely greater than 3°C, based on observed climate change and climate models."
--- IPCC report AR5, 1WG, page 1033 (link to
Chapter 12, long term projections ...
[Emphasis mine] ...
This is only true since 1980 ... temperatures were falling between 1940 and 1980 even though CO
2 was rising ... you know, the
opposite of the consensus ...
For you liberals who are math-challenged ... I'll walk you through this ... temperatures were 8ºC below 20th Century average, and carbon dioxide was at 180 ppm, at the beginning of the Holocene ... let's double the carbon dioxide to 360 ppm, we should see temperatures at 5ºC below ... and double again to 720 ppm and we're 2ºC below 20th Century average ... doubling yet again to 1440 ppm (0.144%) to get to current temperatures ... that's maximum global warming, and
extremely unlikely per IPCC ... like foolishly betting on the Dodgers to win the World Series ...
Kitchen counter physics ... 1,000,000 ppm only gives us 8ºC over 20th Century average ... now curve-fit that to a natural logarithm
(or fourth root it you want to get technical) ...
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Universities that offer Climatology as a degree program start their curriculum in the junior year, the students need to complete two years coursework in calculus first, and the better school now require concurrence with LinAlgebra and Differential Equations courses ... a fair part of the scientific literature is expressed as solutions to the stress tensor, where one meets the true horrors of Analytic Geometry ...
That's over my paygrade ... but I know none of it trumps fundamentals ... force is always equal to mass times acceleration ... that makes power and energy proportional to mass ... if I may hyperbolize, we need
exo-tonnes of carbon to raise temperatures enough to read on our Walmart thermometers ..