Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

[ScienceRocks]

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

9 hours ago

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.

The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.

"Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales' Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.

"When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."

The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.

Observations show when water vapour is taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation, the updraughts can either rise to 15 km to form clouds that produce heavy rains or rise just a few kilometres before returning to the surface without forming rain clouds.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html

What a load of crap. Water vapor = more cloud formations. 2. We're about ready to start reducing our co2 emissions big time as the United states, Eu, and even china is getting in on it...3. 3-5 million years ago when we were 450 ppm global temperatures were only 2c warmer, 4. 550ppm 10-15 million years ago more like 3c or maybe 4c warmer...The upper end of this is more like within the next 500 years. 5. ENSO, PDO and aerosols have stalled this great and powerful beast for the past decade within the atmospheric temperature. How powerful can the positive forcing really be??? We're now on a trend to see about .08/decadex8.5 = is .68c of warming by 2100 and .14c is 1.2c of warming. I don't count the 90's as it had a huge volcano with rebound that made it look like .16-.2c of warming.

.7c + .8c = 1.5c of warming since 1880 by 2100
1.2c+.8c =2c of warming since 1880 by 2100

Let's say the forcing does speed warming up to .16c per decade by mid century??? Let's avg it at .16c for the next 8.5 decades..= 1.4c of warming
+.8c = 2.2c above 1880 levels.

So a likely range of 1.5 to 2.2c of total warming by 2100.

If this paper has any reality to it = something big is going to snap. AND IT BETTER BE FAST.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

9 hours ago

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.

The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.

"Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales' Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.

"When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."

The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.

Observations show when water vapour is taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation, the updraughts can either rise to 15 km to form clouds that produce heavy rains or rise just a few kilometres before returning to the surface without forming rain clouds.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html

What a load of crap. Water vapor = more cloud formations. 2. We're about ready to start reducing our co2 emissions big time as the United states, Eu, and even china is getting in on it...3. 3-5 million years ago when we were 450 ppm global temperatures were only 2c warmer, 4. 550ppm 10-15 million years ago more like 3c or maybe 4c warmer...The upper end of this is more like within the next 500 years. 5. ENSO, PDO and aerosols have stalled this great and powerful beast for the past decade within the atmospheric temperature. How powerful can the positive forcing really be??? We're now on a trend to see about .08/decadex8.5 = is .68c of warming by 2100 and .14c is 1.2c of warming. I don't count the 90's as it had a huge volcano with rebound that made it look like .16-.2c of warming.

.7c + .8c = 1.5c of warming since 1880 by 2100
1.2c+.8c =2c of warming since 1880 by 2100

Let's say the forcing does speed warming up to .16c per decade by mid century??? Let's avg it at .16c for the next 8.5 decades..= 1.4c of warming
+.8c = 2.2c above 1880 levels.

So a likely range of 1.5 to 2.2c of total warming by 2100.

If this paper has any reality to it = something big is going to snap. AND IT BETTER BE FAST.

Still waiting for that reproducible experiment that shows CO2 does any of what is claimed.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

9 hours ago

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100

Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.

The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.

"Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales' Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.

"When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."

The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.

Observations show when water vapour is taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation, the updraughts can either rise to 15 km to form clouds that produce heavy rains or rise just a few kilometres before returning to the surface without forming rain clouds.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html

What a load of crap. Water vapor = more cloud formations. 2. We're about ready to start reducing our co2 emissions big time as the United states, Eu, and even china is getting in on it...3. 3-5 million years ago when we were 450 ppm global temperatures were only 2c warmer, 4. 550ppm 10-15 million years ago more like 3c or maybe 4c warmer...The upper end of this is more like within the next 500 years. 5. ENSO, PDO and aerosols have stalled this great and powerful beast for the past decade within the atmospheric temperature. How powerful can the positive forcing really be??? We're now on a trend to see about .08/decadex8.5 = is .68c of warming by 2100 and .14c is 1.2c of warming. I don't count the 90's as it had a huge volcano with rebound that made it look like .16-.2c of warming.

.7c + .8c = 1.5c of warming since 1880 by 2100
1.2c+.8c =2c of warming since 1880 by 2100

Let's say the forcing does speed warming up to .16c per decade by mid century??? Let's avg it at .16c for the next 8.5 decades..= 1.4c of warming
+.8c = 2.2c above 1880 levels.

So a likely range of 1.5 to 2.2c of total warming by 2100.

If this paper has any reality to it = something big is going to snap. AND IT BETTER BE FAST.

Still waiting for that reproducible experiment that shows CO2 does any of what is claimed.

The history of the climate on this planet is that experiment. Snowball earth 600 million years ago = that, 50 million years ago during the hottest period in history = that...and lastly the last 30 million years glaciation also = that. The levels want below 400ppm 3 million years ago ====the current ice age.

 

[Abraham3]

Still waiting for that reproducible experiment that shows CO2 does any of what is claimed.

I'm still waiting for you to show us that fools don't make it to Gunny Sgt.

Thousands of experiments have been done and the vast, vast majority of them show that CO2 is the primary driver of global warming and that virtually every molecule of excess CO2 came from the combustion of fossil fuels.

Your continued whine about experiments does nothing but show that you seem unwilling to face reality.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Yawn.

 

[SwimExpert]

The history of the climate on this planet is that experiment. Snowball earth 600 million years ago = that, 50 million years ago during the hottest period in history = that...and lastly the last 30 million years glaciation also = that. The levels want below 400ppm 3 million years ago ====the current ice age.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI0RoJz7Tno]Billy Madison - Best insult ever! I award you no points - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Mr. H.]

Black cock?

 

[ScienceRocks]

I don't know how your love of BLACK COCK has anything to do with this thread, mr.h. BUT what do I know.

I don't believe 4c is possible either....Maybe half that at most.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

carbon dioxide if food for plants, which feed animals, which in turn feed other animals.
It's a nasty fact warmers hate.

 

[Politico]

I don't know how your love of BLACK COCK has anything to do with this thread, mr.h. BUT what do I know.

I don't believe 4c is possible either....Maybe half that at most.

Which is not much.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I am just repeating what most of the worlds scientist. say I am sorry that you conservative fucks are clueless...

Every school
College course
and major research office on earth

all agree.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

I am just repeating what most of the worlds scientist. say I am sorry that you conservative fucks are clueless...

Every school
College course
and major research office on earth

all agree.

The world scientist have been directed to cover up their findings, NOW WHAT SCHMUCK?

 

[Politico]

I am just repeating what most of the worlds scientist. say I am sorry that you conservative fucks are clueless...

Every school
College course
and major research office on earth

all agree.

That's all you do is repeat other people's stuff. And for the 100th time. Did you just call me a conservative? Don't worry I know you will avoid the question.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Yes I sure did, asshole. Also I've brought more of my own thoughts then you certainly have.

Fact.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I am just repeating what most of the worlds scientist. say I am sorry that you conservative fucks are clueless...

Every school
College course
and major research office on earth

all agree.

The world scientist have been directed to cover up their findings, NOW WHAT SCHMUCK?

So says the one with no back ground within the field. Are you still going to tell me that conservatives aren't anti-science?

 

[Politico]

Well then by all means rep request granted.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

I am just repeating what most of the worlds scientist. say I am sorry that you conservative fucks are clueless...

Every school
College course
and major research office on earth

all agree.

The world scientist have been directed to cover up their findings, NOW WHAT SCHMUCK?

So says the one with no back ground within the field. Are you still going to tell me that conservatives aren't anti-science?

I may not have a degree in the field, however I can read

Climate scientists urged to cover up slow in global warming, it is claimed - Telegraph

Govts tried to cover up data showing lack of global warming | The Daily Caller

Climate scientists told to 'cover up' the fact that the Earth's temperature hasn't risen for the last 15 years | Mail Online

EDITORIAL: The global-cooling cover-up - Washington Times

 

[Abraham3]

Climate scientists urged to cover up slow in global warming, it is claimed - Telegraph

Govts tried to cover up data showing lack of global warming | The Daily Caller

Climate scientists told to 'cover up' the fact that the Earth's temperature hasn't risen for the last 15 years | Mail Online

EDITORIAL: The global-cooling cover-up - Washington Times

Your sources, to a man, are pathetic. But, given that we've been asking for some evidence for over a week without response, we should be grateful with this. Let's see what we've got.

What we've got are government comments attached to the leaked draft AR5 report of the IPCC. Below is a slightly more concise paraphrase of what may be found in the leaked, draft report and are from another exceedingly biased blog: World?s temperature hasn?t risen for the last 15 years

Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.

Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change.

Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for statistics, as it was exceptionally warm and makes the graph look flat – and suggested using 1999 or 2000 instead to give a more upward-pointing curve.

The United States delegation even weighed in, urging the authors of the report to explain away the lack of warming using the ‘leading hypothesis’ among scientists that the lower warming is down to more heat being absorbed by the ocean – which has got hotter.


So, these were comments made to the IPCC resulting from a review of a draft of the AR5 report. These comments were NOT made to the scientists who conducted the research on which the report was based. If this 'news' report is to be believed, Germany was the only nation actually suggesting information be removed from the report. Hungary expressed a "worry" and Belgium asked that an arbitrary, statistical endpoint be changed by one or two years. One or two years... now THAT'S SUPPRESSION!.

The US, for its part, was actually asking that MORE research results be ADDED to the report.

And, of course, you will note that in the final report, there was no suppression of information; no suppression of discussion of the surface temperature trend of the last 15 years. And the conclusion of that report - even taking the last 15 years into consideration - is that the world's climate scientists are even MORE certain that global warming is still underway and they are even MORE certain its primary cause has been human GHG emissions.

Just a point to make some things clear. The IPCC employs no researchers and conducts no research. The IPCC funds no research. It simply compiles the research conducted by others. Urgings of any sort made to the IPCC do not affect research or its publication - it can only affect what appears in the next analysis report.

In our point of view, in the point of view of folks who accept AGW and believe global warming is a threat to humanity which requires a committed response; from our point of view, the urgings of deniers such as you bunch are a real threat to all of us, particularly to our children and grand children. If you think fairness would have all our hands tied and prevent us from resisting your efforts, you are sorely mistaken. If you want to continue to press for a course of action that the majority of the world's scientists believe to be ignorant, irresponsible and dangerous, you need to be prepared to face some stiff resistance. If you get this upset at something as trivial as these draft review comments, you can't be particularly confident in the validity of your own position.

So quit your whining and grow a pair.

 

[Spiderman]

Every other climate prediction has been wrong so why should this one be believed?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Climate scientists urged to cover up slow in global warming, it is claimed - Telegraph

Govts tried to cover up data showing lack of global warming | The Daily Caller

Climate scientists told to 'cover up' the fact that the Earth's temperature hasn't risen for the last 15 years | Mail Online

EDITORIAL: The global-cooling cover-up - Washington Times

Your source, to a man, are pathetic. But, given that we've been asking for some evidence for over a week without response, we should be grateful with this. Let's see what we've got.

What we've got are government comments attached to the leaked draft AR5 report of the IPCC. These are from another exceedingly biased blog: World?s temperature hasn?t risen for the last 15 years

Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.

Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change.

Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for statistics, as it was exceptionally warm and makes the graph look flat – and suggested using 1999 or 2000 instead to give a more upward-pointing curve.

The United States delegation even weighed in, urging the authors of the report to explain away the lack of warming using the ‘leading hypothesis’ among scientists that the lower warming is down to more heat being absorbed by the ocean – which has got hotter.


So, these were comments made to the IPCC resulting from a review of a draft of the AR5 report. These comments were NOT made to the scientists who conducted the research on which the report is based. If this report is to be believed, Germany was the only nation actually suggesting information be removed from the report.

The US, for its part, was actually asking that information be ADDED to the report. Hungary and Belgium were asking for changes in presentation - changes that could be justified on objective grounds.

And, of course, you will note that in the final report, there was no suppression of information or discussion of the surface temperature trend of the last 15 years. And the conclusion of that report - even taking the last 15 years into consideration - is that we are even MORE certain that global warming is still underway and even MORE certain that it has been primarily caused by human GHG emissions.

Bullshit. Time for you to disprove it. You can't use the covered up data either.