ScienceRocks
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Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100
9 hours ago
Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html
What a load of crap. Water vapor = more cloud formations. 2. We're about ready to start reducing our co2 emissions big time as the United states, Eu, and even china is getting in on it...3. 3-5 million years ago when we were 450 ppm global temperatures were only 2c warmer, 4. 550ppm 10-15 million years ago more like 3c or maybe 4c warmer...The upper end of this is more like within the next 500 years. 5. ENSO, PDO and aerosols have stalled this great and powerful beast for the past decade within the atmospheric temperature. How powerful can the positive forcing really be??? We're now on a trend to see about .08/decadex8.5 = is .68c of warming by 2100 and .14c is 1.2c of warming. I don't count the 90's as it had a huge volcano with rebound that made it look like .16-.2c of warming.
.7c + .8c = 1.5c of warming since 1880 by 2100
1.2c+.8c =2c of warming since 1880 by 2100
Let's say the forcing does speed warming up to .16c per decade by mid century??? Let's avg it at .16c for the next 8.5 decades..= 1.4c of warming
+.8c = 2.2c above 1880 levels.
So a likely range of 1.5 to 2.2c of total warming by 2100.
If this paper has any reality to it = something big is going to snap. AND IT BETTER BE FAST.
9 hours ago
Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4C by 2100
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.
The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.
"Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said lead author from the University of New South Wales' Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood.
"When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5°C to 5°C. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3°C to 5°C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."
The key to this narrower but much higher estimate can be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.
Observations show when water vapour is taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation, the updraughts can either rise to 15 km to form clouds that produce heavy rains or rise just a few kilometres before returning to the surface without forming rain clouds.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html
What a load of crap. Water vapor = more cloud formations. 2. We're about ready to start reducing our co2 emissions big time as the United states, Eu, and even china is getting in on it...3. 3-5 million years ago when we were 450 ppm global temperatures were only 2c warmer, 4. 550ppm 10-15 million years ago more like 3c or maybe 4c warmer...The upper end of this is more like within the next 500 years. 5. ENSO, PDO and aerosols have stalled this great and powerful beast for the past decade within the atmospheric temperature. How powerful can the positive forcing really be??? We're now on a trend to see about .08/decadex8.5 = is .68c of warming by 2100 and .14c is 1.2c of warming. I don't count the 90's as it had a huge volcano with rebound that made it look like .16-.2c of warming.
.7c + .8c = 1.5c of warming since 1880 by 2100
1.2c+.8c =2c of warming since 1880 by 2100
Let's say the forcing does speed warming up to .16c per decade by mid century??? Let's avg it at .16c for the next 8.5 decades..= 1.4c of warming
+.8c = 2.2c above 1880 levels.
So a likely range of 1.5 to 2.2c of total warming by 2100.
If this paper has any reality to it = something big is going to snap. AND IT BETTER BE FAST.