Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Those of us who said Trump's refusal at the debate to acknowledge he would accept the election results would cost him any possible chance he may have still had to win this election were correct.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

 

[konradv]

Can't wait until, this election is over and Trump can go back to being a reality star on one network instead of a lying demagogue on every network.

Trump's bullsh*t: Why his supporters don't care that he's lying

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Those of us who said Trump's refusal at the debate to acknowledge he would accept the election results would cost him any possible chance he may have still had to win this election were correct.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

From the link, the most important section down at the bottom.

Methodology

"a random national sample of 874 likely voters"

"Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

So a small sample of people, 874 and a 9% oversampling of Democrats, 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans is again of course going to result in Hillary leading another poll.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Those of us who said Trump's refusal at the debate to acknowledge he would accept the election results would cost him any possible chance he may have still had to win this election were correct.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

From the link, the most important section down at the bottom.

Methodology

"a random national sample of 874 likely voters"

"Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

So a small sample of people, 874 and a 9% oversampling of Democrats, 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans is again of course going to result in Hillary leading another poll.

There isn't a 9% over sampling of Democrats. Turn out among Democrats in a presidential election is typically higher than turn out among Republicans. It might be slightly over sampled, but in the last two presidential elections turn out among Democrats was roughly 7% higher than Republicans.

Furthermore, 874 people is not a small sample. It's very typical of most polling and more than enough for a scientific poll.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Those of us who said Trump's refusal at the debate to acknowledge he would accept the election results would cost him any possible chance he may have still had to win this election were correct.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

From the link, the most important section down at the bottom.

Methodology

"a random national sample of 874 likely voters"

"Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

So a small sample of people, 874 and a 9% oversampling of Democrats, 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans is again of course going to result in Hillary leading another poll.

There isn't a 9% over sampling of Democrats. Turn out among Democrats in a presidential election is typically higher than turn out among Republicans. It might be slightly over sampled, but in the last two presidential elections turn out among Democrats was roughly 7% higher than Republicans.

Furthermore, 874 people is not a small sample. It's very typical of most polling and more than enough for a scientific poll.

"It might be slightly over sampled, but in the last two presidential elections turn out among Democrats was roughly 7% higher than Republicans."

This election you have is very different than your previous elections.

What you have are the Trump voters, who include not only Republicans, but also Conservative Independents and Constitutional Conservatives etc. The Trump voters think that if Hillary wins then this is going to be the last election, no more elections, a consolidation of power from the Hillary side.

Then you have the section, who might not like Donald Trump, however they're concerned about the Supreme Court situation, that in the next four years, three Judges might have to be replaced, and lifetime positions, so the Second Amendment at huge risk, possibly also the First Amendment and maybe others.

So these things combined, suggest that the Trump voters and what we'll refer to as the Anti-Hillary voters, in significantly higher numbers are going to vote, which is why I think that previous elections, where the Democratic turnout was a little higher cannot be included this time.

There is no precedent or parallel to this election, at least in contemporary times, perhaps if I read there might be one pre-American Civil War or post-American Civil War or something, I'm not sure I'll have to read some things.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Those of us who said Trump's refusal at the debate to acknowledge he would accept the election results would cost him any possible chance he may have still had to win this election were correct.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead

From the link, the most important section down at the bottom.

Methodology

"a random national sample of 874 likely voters"

"Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

So a small sample of people, 874 and a 9% oversampling of Democrats, 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans is again of course going to result in Hillary leading another poll.

Wrong.

The notion of an “oversampling of Democrats” is a myth – just because one is a Democrat doesn’t mean he’ll vote for the Democratic nominee.

Indeed, Democrats are notorious for not supporting a given Democratic nominee; political scientists refer to these Democrats as ‘weak’ Democrats, or more recently, ‘Reagan’ Democrats.

In fact, because there are more registered Democrats, and more Democrats who come out to vote, weak Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents usually determine the outcome of presidential elections – particularly in traditionally blue states.

Consequently, Republicans should want more Democrats sampled, to see if indeed weak Democrats are abandoning the Democratic nominee, as we saw in 1988 and 2004.

 

[Pop23]

IBD/Tiff has trump up by 2.

It is the gold standard and top rated poll.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

IBD/Tiff has trump up by 2.

It is the gold standard and top rated poll.

It's the state by state polls that matter. That is how the president gets elected.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

IBD/Tiff has trump up by 2.

It is the gold standard and top rated poll.

It's the state by state polls that matter. That is how the president gets elected.

You have an unusual election system, the Popular Vote and then this Electoral College vote. I'll have to read why this unusual election system was determined.

On some level it seems unfair, this because theoretically someone could win the Popular Vote 60%-40% and get 10 million more votes than the lesser candidate, yet the lesser candidate could win the election on the Electoral College vote, who are essentially the Delegates and Super Delegates who have pledged to support a particular candidate.

I think I've got this right?

 

[Iceweasel]

IBD/Tiff has trump up by 2.

It is the gold standard and top rated poll.

It's the state by state polls that matter. That is how the president gets elected.

You have an unusual election system, the Popular Vote and then this Electoral College vote. I'll have to read why this unusual election system was determined.

On some level it seems unfair, this because theoretically someone could win the Popular Vote 60%-40% and get 10 million more votes than the lesser candidate, yet the lesser candidate could win the election on the Electoral College vote, who are essentially the Delegates and Super Delegates who have pledged to support a particular candidate.

I think I've got this right?

The electoral college vote was designed to prevent populous states from completely drowning out sparse ones. Wyoming, for example would pretty much have no say in the outcome of a national election. Same with many states.

 

[Pop23]

IBD/Tiff has trump up by 2.

It is the gold standard and top rated poll.

It's the state by state polls that matter. That is how the president gets elected.

And if the national polls, for the most part, off by these large if margins, then the State polls would be off as well.

It will be interesting to see which polls are closest to correct. In 2012 IBD/tiff missed by an amazing .01%. Most others showed Romney by a comfortable margin. We know they were remarkably wrong.