CCP may be desperate enough to start a war to save itself

[Hector12]

The world would never stand for that kind of open ethnic cleansing.

If they would, the Zionists would have done it decades ago.

The Israelis have gradually pushed the Palestinians out. Now they are working on the Palestinians in Gaza.

 

[JoeB131]

The situation isn't static in Taiwan and it will be greatly influenced by China's/America's fortunes.

Perhaps. I don't think China has the military resources to pull off a successful invasion right now and they aren't likely to any time soon. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be a lot more complicated than the D-Day invasion, and that took years of planning and hundreds of ships. The Taiwan straight is wider and unlike the Allied invasion, subterfuge is probably not an option.

I think it more likely that Taiwan will simply go into a demographic death spiral (they have a very low birth rate) and eventually, China will just sweep them up.

Wars between major world powers have become prohibitive due to MAD. America can only win/lose Taiwan in the same manner as its attempting to win the Ukraine.

Who are we Joe to be able to pick a winner in either case?

My best guess is dependent on the success/failure of the Brics. I would suggest that Iran is now safely in the Brics' bag.

In the immortal words of Tonto, "Who's 'we', Paleface?"

The BRICs are a joke.

Now, given Trump is determined to sell out Ukraine, even after Putin had been thoroughly beaten, is a problem in weak leadership.

I don't see Trump selling out Taiwan, but I think our legal case there is much weaker, since we already acknowledge Taiwan as part of China. (As opposed to Ukraine, where we promised to protect their borders if they gave up their nukes. They should have kept their nukes.)

 

[JoeB131]

The Israelis have gradually pushed the Palestinians out. Now they are working on the Palestinians in Gaza.

I think your map is about as misleading as those election maps that show the US being mostly "red".

Most of those areas that changed hands are parts where almost no one lives.

 

[Unkotare]

Taiwan just needs to hang in there long enough for that Communist nonsense in mainland China to finally collapse and they are ready to meet at Taiwan's democracy.

 

[JoeB131]

Taiwan just needs to hang in there long enough for that Communist nonsense in mainland China to finally collapse and they are ready to meet at Taiwan's democracy.

Right, because they've been predicting that for 70 years.

Here's the reality. China pretty much stopped being Communist after Deng Xiaoping pushed Hu Guofeng out of the way.

The difference between China and America is not Capitalism vs. Communism. We have a lot more socialism than we care to admit if 36% of our GDP is government spending. They have a lot more capitalism than they care to admit if there are 814 Chinese Billionaires. .

No, the difference between China and America is that America has Democracy, and China has a Technocracy.

So while we elect the Game Show Host because he can appeal to the most stupid people, the Chinese have a system where the smarest rise to the the top.

Doesn't match our ideals, of course. We want to think the people get it right... but they really don't. We elect these clowns and we turn on them, eventually.

 

[Unkotare]

Right, because they've been predicting that for 70 years.
...

Like the CCP has been predicting their conquest of Taiwan for 70 years?

 

[Unkotare]

....

Here's the reality. China pretty much stopped being Communist after Deng Xiaoping pushed Hu Guofeng out of the way.
...

How long have you lived in China?

 

[Unkotare]

...

So while we elect the ....

While we "what"? What was that verb?

 

[JoeB131]

While we "what"? What was that verb?

Wow, you teach school; that's scary. (The verb in that sentence was "elect". )

How long have you lived in China?

I haven't. My wife lived there for 55 years and retired early with a pretty generous nest egg.

Like the CCP has been predicting their conquest of Taiwan for 70 years?

Not sure what your point is here, Poop-san.

China is a 4000-year-old civilization. They can wait things out.

Take Hong Kong. They could have declared the Unequal Treaties of the Opium War null and void and just rolled right in. It wasn't like the UK would do much about it, and the US had its hands full.

Instead, they waited. Just like they'll wait out the Trump stupidity.

 

[Unkotare]

Wow, you teach school; that's scary. (The verb in that sentence was "elect". )
....

Oh, "elect"! Who do the people of China ELECT to their national government?

 

[Unkotare]

...



I haven't. ...

No, you haven't.

 

[JoeB131]

Oh, "elect"! Who do the people of China ELECT to their national government?

Um, I was referring to America, not China. China selects the best people through merit.

We elect the clown who is willing to tell the most lies.

Democracy has failed in America. I'm sorry you can't see that.

But again- Public Education.

No, you haven't.

Nor do I have any desire to. (My wife would like us to retire there, I doubt I could adapt. Then I think about how much work she does to adapt to living here.)

 

[Unkotare]

Um, I was referring to America, not China. China selects the best people through merit.
...

The question was: "Oh, 'elect'! Who do the people of China ELECT to their national government?"

 

[Unkotare]

...

Democracy has failed in America. ...

Maybe YOU have failed in America. Democracy is doing just fine.

 

[JoeB131]

The question was: "Oh, 'elect'! Who do the people of China ELECT to their national government?"

No, that was your question. Anyone with a lick of sense could tell what I'm saying, that in a meritocracy, the best and brightest are selected.

Of course, the Chinese are already very bright people, compared to Americans who are dumb, dumb, dumb.

And your profession is keeping them that way.

 

[Unkotare]

...


Nor do I have any desire to. ....

No, you'd rather just continue talking out your ass based on ZERO personal experience.

 

[Unkotare]

No, that was your question. ...

Which you are still afraid to answer.

 

[Unkotare]

...the best and brightest are selected.
...

"Selected." You'd make a fine servant. Might as well move to China.

 

[Unkotare]

...Americans who are dumb, dumb, dumb.
....

It's clear you are talking about yourself, just as it's clear you lack the courage of your convictions.

 

[JoeB131]

No, you'd rather just continue talking out your ass based on ZERO personal experience.

Or I realize that some people just have different cultures and values.

Now, for those playing along at home, I am opposed to the death penalty in principle. The government should not have the right to take your life, because they might get it wrong. But I was watching a video with Mrs. B131 (She has several apps on her phone to watch Chinese media) where some drug dealers were caught in China and were sentenced to death. To me, as an American, this is unacceptable. But given China's history with opium addiction, you can see how they would take a much harder line on this.

Which you are still afraid to answer.

I gave you an answer, just not one you'd like to hear.

"Selected." You'd make a fine servant. Might as well move to China.

Not at all. Elections give you Trump, AOC, MTG, Tulsi Gabbard, and some real fucking idiots because we don't treat the vote very seriously. Only 35% of Americans can name their congressman.

It's clear you are talking about yourself, just as it's clear you lack the courage of your convictions.

Again, only one of us has a DD214, and I've taken more risks in life than you ever will working a sad, public sector job it's impossible to fire you from.