Research on crime rates indicates that undocumented immigrants (illegal aliens) are, on average, less likely to commit crimes or be incarcerated than native-born U.S. citizens. Numerous studies, including analyses of data from Texas and national surveys, show that undocumented immigrants have lower rates of conviction and arrest for violent, property, and drug offenses compared to their native-born counterparts.
A 2023 analysis of Census data found that illegal immigrants are roughly half as likely to be incarcerated as native-born Americans.
In 2023, the estimated incarceration rate was 1,221 per 100,000 for native-born Americans, compared to 613 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants.
So my example was a vast underestimation of the decrease in the crime rate.