Busy Hurricane Season is predicted for 2024

[Harpy Eagle]

I think it's perfectly normal for an interglacial period that is still warming up to its pre-glacial temperature. You think the planet has never been in this position before?

View attachment 973147

how was humanity doing the last time temps were this high...

 

[ding]

how was humanity doing the last time temps were this high...

View attachment 973614

Life thrives at warmer temps. Colder temps not so much.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Life thrives at warmer temps. Colder temps not so much.

You did not answer the question.

 

[ding]

You did not answer the question.

It’s a dumb question. But please feel free to answer your own question if you disagree with it being a dumb question.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It’s a dumb question. But please feel free to answer your own question if you disagree with it being a dumb question.

No need, you just exposed yourself, my work here is done.

 

[ding]

No need, you just exposed yourself, my work here is done.

Only in your mind. Everyone else sees a dumb question that you can’t explain what it actually exposed.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Only in your mind. Everyone else sees a dumb question that you can’t explain what it actually exposed.

 

[Sunsettommy]

I have read your Wikipedia article on barrier layers. They do not even suggest that barrier layers are responsible for rapid hurricane development and acceleration. So, do you have another source that does or are you just pulling this out of your ass?

I mentioned it because it is well known in the field of Meteorology for a few years now as this more recent research from 2018 attests:

How does a river plume influence hurricanes in the Caribbean?​

LINK


And this older paper from 2012, from PNAS:

Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification​

Abstract​

Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

LINK

 

[ding]

Your surrender has been duly noted.

 

[justoffal]

Colorado State University

LINK


==================

Watch the climate Cultists scream over them as they normally do despite this is being normal weather.

What the hell do they mean by busy? That's a pretty nebulous term.

 

[Crick]

I'll refute it how I wish.

Hottest temp ever recorded was in 1913, sorry that hurts your feelings and goes against the junk science you worship.

From the Journal of the American Meteorological Society

Google Image Result for x-raw-image:///70c79e99ddbe91dfd2cc603d7b0f9c161cf4e8b48bd67d29bd9c2da3d647b204

Answering the question "why is Death Valley so hot?" is more difficult. There are several plausible reasons, but little research has been undertaken to determine the exact causes of extremely high temperatures in Death Valley. One important consideration is that temperature records are only available from inhabited places with weather stations. Furnace Creek in Death Valley is one of the few inhabited places in the world below sea level that maintains an official weather station (and unlike other places below sea level such as the Imperial Valley in California or the Dead Sea, Death Valley is far removed from large bodies of water that moderate extreme temperatures). There are likely places in the world with more extreme temperatures than Furnace Creek, but they are undocumented.

Several factors most likely lead to the occurrence of very high air temperatures in Death Valley (e.g.,Lamb 1958):

i) Clear, dry air, and dark, sparsely vegetated land surfaces enhance the absorption of the sun's heat, which in turn heats the near-surface air. This is especially strong in the summer when the sun is nearly directly overhead.
ii) Air masses subsiding into the below sea level valley are warmed adiabatically.
iii) Subsiding air masses also inhibit vertical convection, keeping heated air trapped near ground level.
iv) The deep trench-like nature of Death Valley and its north-south orientation in an area where winds often blow west to east also acts to keep warm air trapped in the valley.
v) Warm desert regions surrounding Death Valley, especially to the south and east, often heat the air before it arrives in Death Valley (warm-air advection).
vi) Air masses forced over mountain ranges are progressively warmed (the foehn effect). As air masses rise over mountains, adiabatic cooling and condensation releases latent heat that directly warms the air; during subsequent descent, the air is warmed further by adiabatic compression. Death Valley is surrounded by mountain ranges; each time air is forced over mountains, it becomes warmer on the downwind side for a given elevation due to the foehn effect.
So, the conditions that produce extreme temperatures in Death Valley, that are only the hottest temperatures we know of, are unique to Death Valley - they are the product of regional topography and surface albedo. Thus, Death Valley is not representative of the planet and forcing factors controlling what is happening in the rest of the planet neither affect nor are affected by what is happening in Death Valley.
You can see from the graph above that the 1913 reading was indeed a severe outlier and there is also some debate over the validity of its claim. This from https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/what-is-hottest-temperature-in-death-valley-18254957.php
On July 10, 1913, Oscar Denton, a U.S. Weather Bureau observer stationed at Greenland Ranch, in Death Valley, California, claimed the mercury hit an astonishing 134 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever recorded in the United States. In 2012, Denton’s record was officially recognized as the world heat record by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization, the international arbiter of weather records.

For years, though, a small group of weather-watchers have called the legitimacy of Denton’s claim into question, citing the observer’s inexperience and the much less dramatic temperatures recorded at nearby stations that day. Now, as the world warms, more experts are beginning to look critically at the record — including UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, whose Twitter and YouTube coverage of California’s weather have made him a minor celebrity.

“There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that this reading is valid,” including the quality of Denton’s records, Swain wrote in an email to SFGATE. Indeed, when recently referring to the Death Valley temperature record in his blog, he didn’t refer to the 1913 record. Instead, he uses 130 degrees as the benchmark. Swain considers this “the highest reliable reading, i.e., with no known data quality issues,” he said in an email.

The World Meteorological Organization has investigated and overturned long-held records before. Indeed, until 2012, the world heat record was officially held by a small town in Libya, where an observer in 1922 claimed the temperature hit 58 degrees Celsius, or about 136 degrees Fahrenheit. The WMO put Denton’s record back on top in 2012, after a painstaking investigation by experts from nine countries found the Libyan record unreliable, citing five main issues including “problematical instrumentation” and “a likely inexperienced observer.”
Swain admits that questions about the Death Valley record could be dismissed as trivia, immaterial to modern climate science. But record-setting weather gets a lot of attention, and has dire consequences, including destroying natural ecosystems, damaging communities and causing death.

“Given how much play this number gets in the popular press and broadly in society, I’d say that it’s now probably worth the WMO committee’s time to take a formal look at whether it’s truly plausible given what has come to light through informal investigations over the past decade,” Swain wrote.

 

[bdtex]

We are getting hammered pretty good in the Houston area by Beryl wind gusts right now.

 

[Crick]

I mentioned it because it is well known in the field of Meteorology for a few years now as this more recent research from 2018 attests:

How does a river plume influence hurricanes in the Caribbean?​

LINK


And this older paper from 2012, from PNAS:

Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification​

Abstract​

Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

LINK

Impeccable reference. Alright, barrier layers enable rapid intensification. But they can only enable it as far as the surface layer energy allows. The warming of the SST is still responsible for the increase we've seen in rapid intensification; the barrier layers for where it is more likely to take place.

 

[Crick]

We are getting hammered pretty good in the Houston area by Beryl wind gusts right now.

Stay sharp and be careful.

 

[bdtex]

Stay sharp and be careful.

Rain is gone but we are still getting some pretty good wind gusts. Widespread power outages.

 

[DukeU]

“There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that this reading is valid,” including the quality of Denton’s records, Swain wrote in an email to SFGATE. Indeed, when recently referring to the Death Valley temperature record in his blog, he didn’t refer to the 1913 record. Instead, he uses 130 degrees as the benchmark. Swain considers this “the highest reliable reading, i.e., with no known data quality issues,” he said in an email.

I agree.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Now that overrated Beryl is history already a minimum depression while still in Texas, there is currently ZERO tropical activity in the Atlantic and in central and eastern pacific.

 

[Crick]

Now that overrated Beryl is history already a minimum depression while still in Texas, there is currently ZERO tropical activity in the Atlantic and in central and eastern pacific.

I don't think the people of Jamaica and the Yucatan think it was overrated. Neither do the loved ones of the four dead Texans or the million Texans without power.

 

[ReinyDays]

We had a Tropical Storm in the Pacific ... winds above 39 mph for about 12 hours ... and our THIRD NAMED STORM in the Atlantic ... again, 39 mph or higher for about 12 hours ...

I can see why Chick-e-poo is soiling her knickers ... first hurricane to ever roll across Jamaica this year ...

 

[ReinyDays]

No need, you just exposed yourself, my work here is done.

You like seeing a grown man naked? ... no offense but you can do better than ding ...