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- Mar 3, 2006
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SunsetMommy doesn't mention WHY they expect a busy hurricane season.
Besides La Nina, there is the RECORD WARM SOUTHERN ATANTIC OCEAN.
More Evidence of AGW.
The Hurricane Zone water is astonishingly near 3 degrees warmer in June than in past early seasons.
""Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.
About 67% of the tropical Atlantic experienced record or near-record warm sea surface temperature anomalies in late May 2005 using 1981-2024 records, a notably smaller extent than May 2024.
The Atlantic Main Development Region (area outlined by the black boxes above) is the Warmest on record (since 1981) going into a hurricane season.
Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.
Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.
yaleclimateconnections.org
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Besides La Nina, there is the RECORD WARM SOUTHERN ATANTIC OCEAN.
More Evidence of AGW.
The Hurricane Zone water is astonishingly near 3 degrees warmer in June than in past early seasons.
""Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.
About 67% of the tropical Atlantic experienced record or near-record warm sea surface temperature anomalies in late May 2005 using 1981-2024 records, a notably smaller extent than May 2024.
The Atlantic Main Development Region (area outlined by the black boxes above) is the Warmest on record (since 1981) going into a hurricane season.
Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.
Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.
What’s behind the record-breaking Atlantic heat?
The exceptional warm-up of the North Atlantic began in earnest last spring and continued through the 2023 hurricane season. Despite one of the strongest El Niño events on record, which would typically deter hurricane activity, the Atlantic churned out 20 named storms last season, the fourth-highest number since 1950, according to NOAA. Forecasters largely credited the record-warm tropical Atlantic for counteracting the heavy hand of El Niño.".."
What you need to know about record-breaking heat in the Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections
The ocean heat could fuel an unusually active hurricane season.
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