H
Busy Hurricane Season is predicted for 2024
- Thread starter Sunsettommy
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ReinyDays
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Shame the clip cuts out before my favorite lines ... yeah, lifetime Warriors fan ... boy I did NOT like Kareem ... but he was real good in this movie ...
1980 was a real bad time to be a Warriors fan ... [sigh] ...
Matted Joybeard
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Sunsettommy
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Yawnnnnn, they KNOW they live in a region that gets Tropical and occasional Hurricane storms NATURALLY thus they chose the risk to stay there.
LINK
You overrated it by whining it was unusually strong this early in the year which rapidly declines as soon as the storm moved off the Barrier Layer area of the ocean waters.
The storm weakened when it ran across the Yucatan peninsula.
There is a big difference between not rapidly intensifying and weaking.
And your selfless concern for others impresses the shit out of me.
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Agreed.
True but the conditions weren’t favorable for a strengthening until it got into the shallow, warmer waters. I don’t think it was ever going to spend back up to more than a 2.
It did strengthen. My point was that the absence of barrier layers may reduce the likelihood of rapid intensification but they do not weaken a storm. The storm's strength is ultimately dependent on SST values.
Sunsettommy
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Annnd you had a point there somewhere?
Yeah, but not by much. It's based upon SST, atmospheric moisture and wind shear.
ReinyDays
Platinum Member
... and pressure "shear" ... without high pressure aloft, we have no tropical cyclone ... the heat engine model works really well for this kind of system ... the energy comes from condensing water vapor ... higher SSTs makes for more evaporation, over land this ends and the storm dies or transitions to a cold core cyclone ...
abu afak
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SunsetMommy doesn't mention WHY they expect a busy hurricane season.
Besides La Nina, there is the RECORD WARM SOUTHERN ATANTIC OCEAN.
More Evidence of AGW.
The Hurricane Zone water is astonishingly near 3 degrees warmer in June than in past early seasons.
""Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.
About 67% of the tropical Atlantic experienced record or near-record warm sea surface temperature anomalies in late May 2005 using 1981-2024 records, a notably smaller extent than May 2024.
The Atlantic Main Development Region (area outlined by the black boxes above) is the Warmest on record (since 1981) going into a hurricane season.
Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.
Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.
yaleclimateconnections.org
`
Besides La Nina, there is the RECORD WARM SOUTHERN ATANTIC OCEAN.
More Evidence of AGW.
The Hurricane Zone water is astonishingly near 3 degrees warmer in June than in past early seasons.
""Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.
The Atlantic Main Development Region (area outlined by the black boxes above) is the Warmest on record (since 1981) going into a hurricane season.
Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.
Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.
What’s behind the record-breaking Atlantic heat?
The exceptional warm-up of the North Atlantic began in earnest last spring and continued through the 2023 hurricane season. Despite one of the strongest El Niño events on record, which would typically deter hurricane activity, the Atlantic churned out 20 named storms last season, the fourth-highest number since 1950, according to NOAA. Forecasters largely credited the record-warm tropical Atlantic for counteracting the heavy hand of El Niño.".."
What you need to know about record-breaking heat in the Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections
The ocean heat could fuel an unusually active hurricane season.
yaleclimateconnections.org
`
Do you think it was any different in previous interglacial periods which were warmer than today?SunsetMommy doesn't mention WHY they expect a busy hurricane season.
Besides La Nina, there is the RECORD WARM SOUTHERN ATANTIC OCEAN.
More Evidence of AGW.
The Hurricane Zone water is astonishingly near 3 degrees warmer in June than in past early seasons.
""Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.
About 67% of the tropical Atlantic experienced record or near-record warm sea surface temperature anomalies in late May 2005 using 1981-2024 records, a notably smaller extent than May 2024.
The Atlantic Main Development Region (area outlined by the black boxes above) is the Warmest on record (since 1981) going into a hurricane season.
Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.
Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.
What’s behind the record-breaking Atlantic heat?
The exceptional warm-up of the North Atlantic began in earnest last spring and continued through the 2023 hurricane season. Despite one of the strongest El Niño events on record, which would typically deter hurricane activity, the Atlantic churned out 20 named storms last season, the fourth-highest number since 1950, according to NOAA. Forecasters largely credited the record-warm tropical Atlantic for counteracting the heavy hand of El Niño.".."
What you need to know about record-breaking heat in the Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections
The ocean heat could fuel an unusually active hurricane season.
`
abu afak
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Yes. Warmer or colder but not near as Fast. (100-200x on CO2 and also unnatural Temp spike)
I have demonstrated this to your Dishonest and OCD persona many times.
ding has DISHONESTLY used "normal interglacial" Hundreds of times.
We were going along quite Naturally UNTIL the Industrial Revolution Emissions of man SPIKED it.
11,800 Natural years. 200 not so much.. and accelerating.
``
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Incorrect. D-O events were 5C swings over the period of a few decades. Try again.
Sunsettommy
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He is so ignorant that he doesn't realize there have been published papers on it and the Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years (LINK)
book which cites over 100 published research goes into detail which I have in my climate related library.
Do either of you believe we are currently going through a D-O Event? Yes or no, please.
Sunsettommy
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- #198
NO
Then are they a pertinent point here?
Sunsettommy
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Post 195 will help you while Abu's chart is a pile of garbage for obvious reasons.
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