Busy Hurricane Season is predicted for 2024

[ReinyDays]

How accurate, historically speaking, are these hurricane “predictions?”

Well ... let's start with the actual statement from the NHC ...

... NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

-- Citation from NOAA

As you can see, it doesn't matter what kind of hurricane season this will be ... NOAA's prediction will be correct ... 5% chance of below-average activity means NOAA's right even if there's no hurricanes at all ... aren't statistics wonderful? ...

You just got to love that last comment ... "70% confidence" ... and yet you folks are peeing your pants ... too funny ... so, historically speaking, NOAA is always spot-on correct by always predicting a chance for anything ... 2024 will be between 0 and a million named storms ... and this is always correct ... too easy ...

 

[Crick]

Well ... let's start with the actual statement from the NHC ...



-- Citation from NOAA

As you can see, it doesn't matter what kind of hurricane season this will be ... NOAA's prediction will be correct ... 5% chance of below-average activity means NOAA's right even if there's no hurricanes at all ... aren't statistics wonderful? ...

I thought you had some sort of science education.

You just got to love that last comment ... "70% confidence" ... and yet you folks are peeing your pants ... too funny ... so, historically speaking, NOAA is always spot-on correct by always predicting a chance for anything ... 2024 will be between 0 and a million named storms ... and this is always correct ... too easy ...

They didn't predict "anything". Would you have preferred they give some absolute prediction so you can whine about their failures next year? Do YOU give absolute predictions about the behavior of chaotic systems months in advance? You've become disappointing.

 

[ReinyDays]

I thought you had some sort of science education.

They didn't predict "anything". Would you have preferred they give some absolute prediction so you can whine about their failures next year? Do YOU give absolute predictions about the behavior of chaotic systems months in advance? You've become disappointing.

The word adults use here is "forecast" ... which is strictly defined as "A statement of prediction." ... {Cite from NWS} ... must suck to be you ...

Your tiny lil' girl brain must have forgotten I'm an uneducated construction laborer ... just I look things up before I post ... and can provide a proper link to my information ... scientific-like ...

You, on the other paw, can't read a thermometer ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

NOAA is predicting a probability distribution of the likely number of storms versus historic averages, not whether there will no storms or some storms. The confidence level is not stellar, but it's no random guess either and arguably bold given how far out the weather events they predict are.

 

[ReinyDays]

Let me be quick to point out that we've seen a total of ...

... zero ...

... tropical cyclones so far this season, which starts May 15th in the Eastern Pacific ... anyone booking this at 20 to 1 for a below average season? ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[BackAgain]

Well ... let's start with the actual statement from the NHC ...



-- Citation from NOAA

As you can see, it doesn't matter what kind of hurricane season this will be ... NOAA's prediction will be correct ... 5% chance of below-average activity means NOAA's right even if there's no hurricanes at all ... aren't statistics wonderful? ...

You just got to love that last comment ... "70% confidence" ... and yet you folks are peeing your pants ... too funny ... so, historically speaking, NOAA is always spot-on correct by always predicting a chance for anything ... 2024 will be between 0 and a million named storms ... and this is always correct ... too easy ...

There are liars, damn liars and then there are statisticians, someone once said.

 

[Failzero]

Which ones do you think?

Nevada , New Mexico Colorado

 

[Woodznutz]

Nevada , New Mexico Colorado

Interesting.

 

[ReinyDays]

There are liars, damn liars and then there are statisticians, someone once said.

Benjamin Disraeli ...

Specifically, we're reducing our sample pool to drive up percentages, c.f. The Monty Hall Problem ... the other common lie we're using is cherry-picking the data and only using what fits our claims ... the wise watch for these techniques ...

Why do we want this forecast? ... why bother? ... is there a reason we've even read the fool thing? ... if you want us to run the material through a computer, we'll get a distribution ... of which 5% lies below average ... so what? ... it's just statistics ...

It's weather ... use a dart board or ask a monkey ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Let me be quick to point out that we've seen a total of ...

... zero ...

... tropical cyclones so far this season, which starts May 15th in the Eastern Pacific ... anyone booking this at 20 to 1 for a below average season? ...

It is below average all across the board as of this date, which is 65% of average year to date here is the Link to the website that covers it in real time:

2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy​

LINK

 

[ReinyDays]

It is below average all across the board as of this date, which is 65% of average year to date here is the Link to the website that covers it in real time:

2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy​

LINK

I'd bet a dollar ... in a Las Vegas second ...

 

[EMH]

Bad time to live in a Red State

Why is the record decade for canes still the 1940s?

 

[dudmuck]

Let me be quick to point out that we've seen a total of ...

... zero ...

... tropical cyclones so far this season, which starts May 15th in the Eastern Pacific ... anyone booking this at 20 to 1 for a below average season? ...

 

[ReinyDays]

Hurricane season is officially upon us across the three major basins ...

Still zero activity ... not even a tropical low ... anyone booking NOAA odds? ...

 

[Crick]

Hurricane season is officially upon us across the three major basins ...

Still zero activity ... not even a tropical low ... anyone booking NOAA odds? ...

Are you predicting a quieter than average season?

 

[ding]

Yet it is Red States that block climate change legislation

Do you really believe the planet's climate can be legislated by Congress?

 

[ding]

The Atlantic Ocean basin continues to see a largely unfavorable environment continue to persist across much of the region as the open ocean of the North Atlantic continues to see dry air linger across much of the region, with only small pockets of enhanced moisture levels. However, the passage of strong non-tropical lows entering the region from North America will continue to lead to strong wind shear across much of the region. Meanwhile, the sub-tropical jet remains strong between 15N and 20N, providing a hinderance to northern motion of any prospective lows moving through the Main Development Region to the south, where conditions remain favorable with warm seas, abundant moisture and low shear. Meanwhile, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico currently remain unfavorable; however, seas remain warm in these regions (26-29C) with abundant moisture over the Caribbean. Moisture levels are forecast to rise near the end of the forecast period, raising
favorability there as well. The primary factor currently keeping the favorability low in these regions is strong wind shear. Near the end of the forecast period, a decrease in shear combined with a cold front entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to lead to a rise in favorability and the chance for a cut-off low pressure system to develop. While this is expected to remain sub-tropical, it wil remain monitored due to the risks for widespread storm activity and the chance for some strong winds to accompany it. Overall, minimal tropical activity is expected in the next seven days.

NOTE: NO WHERE IN THIS EXPLANATION IS THE PHRASE "CLIMATE CHANGE" MENTIONED.

 

[rightwinger]

Do you really believe the planet's climate can be legislated by Congress?

Yes
We can regulate what we have control of

 

[ding]

Yes
We can regulate what we have control of

Please do share with me how Congress has control of global CO2 emissions? I'm assuming of course you believe that that is the problem, right?