Busy Hurricane Season is predicted for 2024

[Crick]

A climate in equilibrium neither warms nor cools.

I think you are intentionally being obtuse.

Obtuse? Your first attempt to explain what you meant by "native state of the planet" clearly and repeatedly said it was at equilibrium. Your second attempt clearly and repeatedly stated it was warming. The two conditions are not compatible. I am not being obtuse in the slightest. I am pointing out your numerous, fundamental errors.

There is an equilibrium temperature that is based upon the current landmass distribution for glacial periods and interglacial periods.

And you are claiming that every 28 miles of tectonic motion drives the Earth from glacial to interglacial or vice versa. How can it be that you do not comprehend what utter nonsense that is?

Absent NH glaciation the equilibrium temperature for interglacial periods would be warmer if ocean currents continued circulating heat from the Atlantic to the Arctic. But since ocean currents switch on and off based upon density changes (i.e. salinity and thermal)

You just told us that changes to equilibrium temperatures are due to tectonic movement. Now, in the very next sentence, you claim they are due to changes in ocean density. Tectonic movement has neither the speed nor any periodicity with which to produce the observed glacial-interglacial cycles. And you make no attempt to identify what might be changing seawater density.

interglacial temperatures which would have been warmer without NH glaciation are never reached because the ocean currents change because of temperature which affects salinity and thermal expansion.

For christ's sake just try reading your own words for once. "Interglacial temperatures... are never reached because... currents change because of temperature..."

This is nothing but pure, meaningless gobbledygook.

ANOTHER ding mistake.

 

[ding]

Obtuse? Your first attempt to explain what you meant by "native state of the planet" clearly and repeatedly said it was at equilibrium. Your second attempt clearly and repeatedly stated it was warming. The two conditions are not compatible. I am not being obtuse in the slightest. I am pointing out your numerous, fundamental errors.

Yes, obtuse. If you don't want to believe the ocean contains 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere because it is an excellent conductor of heat compared to air or that the ocean's distribution of that heat is what determines climate, then don't. I know better.

If you want to pretend there's no credible evidence or credible science behind the ocean driving glacial cycles or warming and cooling trends within glacial cycles, then don't. I know better.

 

[ding]

And you are claiming that every 28 miles of tectonic motion drives the Earth from glacial to interglacial or vice versa. How can it be that you do not comprehend what utter nonsense that is?

I never made such a claim. I have no idea what you are talking about. I am claiming that if it weren't for density changes in the Atlantic the planet would keep warming naturally. But since the warming produces density changes in the Atlantic, ocean currents change and that results in climate changes.

You are doing you very best to try to muddy the waters with your obtuseness.

 

[ding]

You just told us that changes to equilibrium temperatures are due to tectonic movement. Now, in the very next sentence, you claim they are due to changes in ocean density. Tectonic movement has neither the speed nor any periodicity with which to produce the observed glacial-interglacial cycles. And you make no attempt to identify what might be changing seawater density.

Nope. No such thing was ever said. I think you are losing your shit.

 

[ding]

It is found that the global salinity variations associated with the thermohaline circulation may have a tendency to make the circulation increasingly asymmetric with respect to the equator. As a consequence the salinity difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean may be slowly increasing. Such a process could have a time scale long enough to be comparable with the time span between major glaciations. A speculative glaciation cycle is proposed which involves the above mentioned property of the thermohaline circulation. In this cycle the role of a Northern Hemisphere glaciation is to bring excess freshwater from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0031018285800201

 

[ding]

Atlantic Ocean Circulation During the Last Ice Age​

There is strong evidence that the circulation of the deep Atlantic during the peak of the last Ice Age, or the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~22,000 to 19,000 years ago) was different from the modern circulation (Boyle & Keigwin 1987, Duplessy et al. 1988, Marchal & Curry 2008). Compilations of deepwater δ13C and CdW for the LGM (Figure 5) show several features that contrast with their modern distributions. Whereas much of the modern deep western Atlantic has similar δ13C values because it is filled with NADW, during the LGM, the range of δ13C values was larger than today, with higher values in NADW and lower values in AABW. The main core of high-δ13C, low-CdW NADW was at least 1000 meters shallower than today, probably because the density difference between surface waters and deep water was reduced — surface salinity may have decreased as a result of less evaporation due to colder glacial temperatures, and as a result of input of freshwater from glaciers surrounding the North Atlantic (Boyle & Keigwin 1987). In the western Atlantic, depths below ~2 km were filled with AABW. Radiocarbon data suggest that deepwater was older (Keigwin & Schlegel 2002), consistent with less NADW and more AABW as indicated by the δ13C and CdW of benthic foraminifera. Glacial δ13C data from the eastern Atlantic suggest that the boundary between glacial AABW and glacial NADW may have been shallower than in the western Atlantic (Sarnthein et al. 1994), although the difference may be the result of local effects caused by increased glacial productivity and higher rates of remineralization of low-δ13C organic carbon in the eastern basin. Inferences using other kinds of proxy data of deep Atlantic circulation are consistent with the changes inferred from δ13C, Cd/Ca and 14C of benthic foraminifera (Lynch-Steiglitz et al. 2007).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation​

 

[ding]

As shown by the work of Dansgaard and his colleagues, climate oscillations of one or so millennia duration punctuate much of glacial section of the Greenland ice cores. These oscillations are characterized by 5°C air temperature changes, severalfold dust content changes and 50 ppm CO2 changes. Both the temperature and CO2 change are best explained by changes in the mode of operation of the ocean. In this paper we provide evidence which suggests that oscillations in surface water conditions of similar duration are present in the record from a deep sea core at 50°N. Based on this finding, we suggest that the Greenland climate changes are driven by oscillations in the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean which modulate the strength of the Atlantic's conveyor circulation.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/PA005i004p00469

 

[ding]

Water Masses in the Deep Atlantic Ocean​

The Atlantic Ocean is the only ocean basin that features the transformation of surface-to-deepwater near both poles. Warm salty tropical surface waters flowing northward in the western Atlantic cool in transit to and within the high-latitude North Atlantic, releasing heat to the overlying atmosphere and increasing seawater density. Once dense enough, these waters sink and flow southward between ~ 1000 and 4000m. This North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), as it is called, flows from the Atlantic to the Southern Ocean where much of it upwells — or rises to the surface — around Antarctica, and some of it circulates Antarctica before entering the rest of the world's deep oceans. Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which is formed close to Antarctica, is denser than NADW, and flows northward in the Atlantic below NADW. AABW is confined to water depths below 4000 meters in the tropical and North Atlantic. Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows northward above NADW. The presence of these three water masses in the Atlantic Ocean is evident in cross-sections of many water properties, including salinity, phosphate concentration and carbon isotope ratios (Figure 2). The residence time of deepwater in the western Atlantic is approximately 100 years (Broecker 1979), meaning that the average water parcel spends about a century in the deep Atlantic.

Why is Deep Water Formed in the Atlantic and not the Pacific?​

Warren (1983) first noted that the difference in salinity between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (Figure 1) was the principal reason deep water formation occurs today only in the North Atlantic. Salty water, when cooled, achieves a higher density and is thus able to sink to greater depth in the water column. Wintertime cooling occurs in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, but since the surface waters of the North Atlantic are much closer in salinity to the mean of the ocean's deep water, they achieve a density high enough to sink to great water depths. Warren (1983) noted that the salinity of the North Pacific was low because of relatively low evaporation, little exchange with salty tropical waters, and an influx of fresh water from precipitation and river runoff. Emile-Geay et al.(2003) reevaluated the Warren (1983) results and fundamentally confirmed his thesis, noting that atmospheric moisture transport from the Asian monsoon was also an important source of fresh water to the North Pacific not originally considered by Warren. Interestingly, Warren also noted that the North Atlantic had much greater river runoff than the North Pacific, so its higher surface salinities must be the result of greater evaporation in the Atlantic basin.

Broecker et al. (1990a) noted that higher Atlantic salinities are the result of a net transfer of water vapor from the Atlantic to the Pacific over the Isthmus of Panama, equivalent to approximately 0.35 Sverdrup (106 m3 per second). In the absence of other processes, this would raise the salinity of the Atlantic by about 1 salinity unit each 1000 years. If the Atlantic salinity is in balance, then it must be exporting the excess salt (enough to compensate for the lost fresh water) through ocean circulation processes. Today this is occurring through the production and export of North Atlantic Deep Water.
At times in the past, rapid melting of ice sheets surrounding the North Atlantic was great enough to alter surface salinities, likely reducing the density of deep water formed, and slowing the export of deep water from the North Atlantic. Broecker et al. (1990b) hypothesized that natural oscillations in the rate of water vapor exchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific during the last glacial period were responsible for the rapid, short term fluctuation ocean circulation linked to the abrupt millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger Events seen in the Greenland ice cores (Figure 9).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation​

 

[ding]

What Replaces the Deep Water that Leaves the Atlantic?​

There are three main pathways for water to return to the North Atlantic and renew NADW, a warm-water route and two cold water routes (Figure 3). The "warm-water route" begins with the flow of surface and thermocline water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Seas. Both colder return flows involve Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), described above. AAIW enters the southern South Atlantic through the Drake Passage between Antarctica and South America, with some flowing into the Atlantic and some flowing into the Indian Ocean. AAIW also enters the Indian Ocean from south of Tasmania and flows westward towards Africa, where it joins the warm-water flow and the other branch of AAIW before rounding southern Africa, entering the South Atlantic, and flowing northward (Gordon 1985, Speich et al. 2002). Along its transit to the North Atlantic, AAIW from the Drake Passage, flowing above Tasman AAIW, mixes with overlying water and contributes to the "warm-water route" (Gordon 1986). These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes. Together, southward flow of water in the deep Atlantic and its shallower return flows are a large component of what is known as the global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation​

 

[Crick]

What Replaces the Deep Water that Leaves the Atlantic?​

There are three main pathways for water to return to the North Atlantic and renew NADW, a warm-water route and two cold water routes (Figure 3). The "warm-water route" begins with the flow of surface and thermocline water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Seas. Both colder return flows involve Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), described above. AAIW enters the southern South Atlantic through the Drake Passage between Antarctica and South America, with some flowing into the Atlantic and some flowing into the Indian Ocean. AAIW also enters the Indian Ocean from south of Tasmania and flows westward towards Africa, where it joins the warm-water flow and the other branch of AAIW before rounding southern Africa, entering the South Atlantic, and flowing northward (Gordon 1985, Speich et al. 2002). Along its transit to the North Atlantic, AAIW from the Drake Passage, flowing above Tasman AAIW, mixes with overlying water and contributes to the "warm-water route" (Gordon 1986). These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes. Together, southward flow of water in the deep Atlantic and its shallower return flows are a large component of what is known as the global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation​

I don't even have to read this to know that it in no way supports your arguments.

 

[ding]

I don't even have to read this to know that it in no way supports your arguments.

1. The ocean stores the majority of heat from the sun
2. The ocean holds 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere
3. The ocean distributes that heat to the rest of the globe
4. Without ocean currents the polar regions would be colder and the equator would be hotter such that much of the planet would be inhospitable for life
5. Ocean currents are affected by density (salinity and thermal expansion) and wind.
6. Wind patterns are affected by the sun
7. If heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic were disrupted it would lead to catastrophic cooling

These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes.

There is strong evidence that the circulation of the deep Atlantic during the peak of the last Ice Age, or the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~22,000 to 19,000 years ago) was different from the modern circulation (Boyle & Keigwin 1987, Duplessy et al. 1988, Marchal & Curry 2008).

...the Greenland climate changes are driven by oscillations in the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean which modulate the strength of the Atlantic's conveyor circulation.

At times in the past, rapid melting of ice sheets surrounding the North Atlantic was great enough to alter surface salinities, likely reducing the density of deep water formed, and slowing the export of deep water from the North Atlantic. Broecker et al. (1990b) hypothesized that natural oscillations in the rate of water vapor exchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific during the last glacial period were responsible for the rapid, short term fluctuation ocean circulation linked to the abrupt millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger Events seen in the Greenland ice cores.

 

[Crick]

1. The ocean stores the majority of heat from the sun
2. The ocean holds 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere
3. The ocean distributes that heat to the rest of the globe
4. Without ocean currents the polar regions would be colder and the equator would be hotter such that much of the planet would be inhospitable for life
5. Ocean currents are affected by density (salinity and thermal expansion) and wind.
6. Wind patterns are affected by the sun
7. If heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic were disrupted it would lead to catastrophic cooling

View attachment 982839

These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes.

There is strong evidence that the circulation of the deep Atlantic during the peak of the last Ice Age, or the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~22,000 to 19,000 years ago) was different from the modern circulation (Boyle & Keigwin 1987, Duplessy et al. 1988, Marchal & Curry 2008).

...the Greenland climate changes are driven by oscillations in the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean which modulate the strength of the Atlantic's conveyor circulation.

At times in the past, rapid melting of ice sheets surrounding the North Atlantic was great enough to alter surface salinities, likely reducing the density of deep water formed, and slowing the export of deep water from the North Atlantic. Broecker et al. (1990b) hypothesized that natural oscillations in the rate of water vapor exchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific during the last glacial period were responsible for the rapid, short term fluctuation ocean circulation linked to the abrupt millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger Events seen in the Greenland ice cores.

As I said, nothing here supports your contentions.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Tropical season still behind the average rate at this time:

LINK

 

[abu afak]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-22-atlantic-hurricane-season-wake-up-august

Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Wake From Its Current Slumber By Early August​

By Jonathan Erdman​

2 days ago​

The "Madden-Julian Oscillation"​

Video at weather channel link above.​

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[EMH]

Record decade for canes 1940s

second place 1890s

WHY does the CO2 FRAUD keep LYING about canes????

U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade

 

[ding]

As I said, nothing here supports your contentions.

Sure it does. You're dismissal of the ocean controlling climate is duly noted.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0031018285800201

 

[Crick]

Sure it does. You're dismissal of the ocean controlling climate is duly noted.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0031018285800201

From 1985 and cited by (0)?

The full text is not available. The abstract says:

"It is found that the global salinity variations associated with the thermohaline circulation may have a tendency to make the circulation increasingly asymmetric with respect to the equator. As a consequence the salinity difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean may be slowly increasing. Such a process could have a time scale long enough to be comparable with the time span between major glaciations. A speculative glaciation cycle is proposed which involves the above mentioned property of the thermohaline circulation. In this cycle the role of a Northern Hemisphere glaciation is to bring excess freshwater from the Pacific to the Atlantic."​

Could you point out where they say the changes in thermohaline properties drive the glacial-interglacial cycle?

 

[ding]

From 1985 and cited by (0)?

The full text is not available. The abstract says:

"It is found that the global salinity variations associated with the thermohaline circulation may have a tendency to make the circulation increasingly asymmetric with respect to the equator. As a consequence the salinity difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean may be slowly increasing. Such a process could have a time scale long enough to be comparable with the time span between major glaciations. A speculative glaciation cycle is proposed which involves the above mentioned property of the thermohaline circulation. In this cycle the role of a Northern Hemisphere glaciation is to bring excess freshwater from the Pacific to the Atlantic."​

Could you point out where they say the changes in thermohaline properties drive the glacial-interglacial cycle?

The part where it repeatedly mentions Northern Hemisphere glaciation, dumbass.

 

[Crick]

Fun fact. The planet's warmest mean temperature occurs when the northern hemisphere receives the most amount of sunlight. The planet's coldest mean temperature occurs when the northern hemisphere receives the least amount of sunlight.

Do you know why?

From 1985 and cited by (0)?

The full text is not available. The abstract says:

"It is found that the global salinity variations associated with the thermohaline circulation may have a tendency to make the circulation increasingly asymmetric with respect to the equator. As a consequence the salinity difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean may be slowly increasing. Such a process could have a time scale long enough to be comparable with the time span between major glaciations. A speculative glaciation cycle is proposed which involves the above mentioned property of the thermohaline circulation. In this cycle the role of a Northern Hemisphere glaciation is to bring excess freshwater from the Pacific to the Atlantic."​

Could you point out where they say the changes in thermohaline properties drive the glacial-interglacial cycle?

The part where it repeatedly mentions Northern Hemisphere glaciation, dumbass.

But that does NOT say that changes in thermohaline properties drive the glacial-interglacial cycle. It says that the salinity difference between the Atlantic and Pacific may be increasing, it says that such a process (with rather ill defined end points) might be taking place at the same time scale as the glacial cycle and suggests that this process might be bringing freshwater from the Pacific to the Atlantic. It says NOTHING about the cycle cause. Nothing.

Look, I can see that you're trying. But you need to give some real consideration as to why you're having such a hard time finding anything to support your ideas.

 

[BackAgain]

July is drawing to a close. I think we are up to one whole hurricane.

Very busy indeed.