Busy Hurricane Season is predicted for 2024

[Sunsettommy]

Meanwhile it is still off to a slow start:

2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]​

Basin​	Current YTD​	Normal YTD​	% of Normal YTD​	Yearly Climo*​	2023**​
Northern Hemisphere​	52.2300	108	48%​	575​	648​
Western N Pacific​	12.7075​	63​	20%​	298​	275​
Eastern + Cent N Pac​	.245​	31​	0%​	132​	165​
North Atlantic​	36.99	6	616%​	122​	146​
North Indian​	2.2875​	7​	32%​	23​	60​
Southern Hemisphere​	169.958	209	81%​	205​	244​
Global​	185.3230​	280​	66%​	780​	881 ​

Meanwhile Hurricanes were more common in the 1980s and 1990's than now:

The 1990's was by far the stormiest decade since 1970:

LINK

 

[Crick]

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Contents Summary Statement Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency Analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics Model simulations of greenhouse warming...

www.gfdl.noaa.gov

 

[Captain Caveman]

There is a much more obvious solution: you're contentions concerning what drives glacial cycles and what is the cause of the current warming are all completely incorrect.

Why does every climate Alarmist prediction fail?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Why does every climate Alarmist prediction fail?

We literally just showed you how theyare accurate, in this case. You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[ding]

View attachment 981695

View attachment 981697

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity

View attachment 981698

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity

View attachment 981700

Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!

View attachment 981701

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Contents Summary Statement Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency Analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics Model simulations of greenhouse warming...

www.gfdl.noaa.gov

Do you think it would have been any different in the previous interglacial period which was 2C warmer than today with 26ft higher seas than today?

 

[Captain Caveman]

We literally just showed you how theyare accurate, in this case. You're embarrassing yourself.

Every alarmist prediction fails.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Every alarmist prediction fails.

You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[Captain Caveman]

You're embarrassing yourself.

Every alarmist prediction fails, that's why they're embarrassing.

The predictions you think you get right are, "I predict tomorrow, a black car will drive past me at a junction".

But predict a heat dome etc.. always fails. Just like Germany found out.

 

[Crick]

Every alarmist prediction fails, that's why they're embarrassing.

Prediction: Continued use of fossil fuels will see continued increases in atmospheric CO2. TRUE
Prediction: Increasing atmospheric CO2 will see continued increases in the average global temperature. TRUE
Prediction: Increasing temperatures will see ever increasing ice melt from Greenland and the poles. TRUE
Prediction: Increasing temperatures will see an accelerating rise in sea level. TRUE
The IPCC's predictions since AR1 have been quite accurate.

The predictions you think you get right are, "I predict tomorrow, a black car will drive past me at a junction".

What you could use is a greater familiarity with the sort of predictions that any competent scientists would actually make.

But predict a heat dome etc.. always fails. Just like Germany found out.

I think you're talking about your weatherman. If not, show us an actual prediction by an actual climate scientists that you think has failed. And, of course, I will bring up the numerous denier 'predictions' that warming would stop or had already stopped.

 

[ding]

Prediction: Continued use of fossil fuels will see continued increases in atmospheric CO2. TRUE
Prediction: Increasing atmospheric CO2 will see continued increases in the average global temperature. TRUE
Prediction: Increasing temperatures will see ever increasing ice melt from Greenland and the poles. TRUE
Prediction: Increasing temperatures will see an accelerating rise in sea level. TRUE

All true although the incremental theoretical surface temperature is only 1C per doubling of atmospheric CO2. In other words it's not significant enough to drive planetary climate change. For that you have to look at how the ocean distributes heat which is where the majority of earth's heat is stored. The ocean has 1000 times the heat of the atmosphere.

 

[Crick]

All true although the incremental theoretical surface temperature is only 1C per doubling of atmospheric CO2. In other words it's not significant enough to drive planetary climate change. For that you have to look at how the ocean distributes heat which is where the majority of earth's heat is stored. The ocean has 1000 times the heat of the atmosphere.

You are unable to even suggest how the ocean moving heat around causes the planet as a whole to warm or cool. Your contention fails. Period.

And, again, the word incremental does not mean what you think it means.

And, still waiting for you to explain what you intend by "the native state of the planet".

 

[ding]

You are unable to even suggest how the ocean moving heat around causes the planet as a whole to warm or cool. Your contention fails. Period.

And, again, the word incremental does not mean what you think it means.

And, still waiting for you to explain what you intend by "the native state of the planet".

Extensive NH continental glaciation.

The native state is that the planet will continue to warm naturally until changes to ocean currents disrupts heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic and a glacial period is triggered. Absent glaciation in the NH, the planet would continue to warm naturally.

 

[Crick]

Extensive NH continental glaciation.

Bullshit. Glaciation doesn't take place till the planet cools. It doesn't happen by itself. The thing you've been searching for: a periodic external function to drive planetary climate changes has a name: Milankovitch Orbital Forcing.

The native state is that the planet will continue to warm naturally until changes to ocean currents disrupts heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic and a glacial period is triggered. Absent glaciation in the NH, the planet would continue to warm naturally.

That's funny, you JUST said something just a wee bit different.

The equilibrium climate for the current landmass and ocean current configuration absent NH glaciation. It's native state.

A climate in equilibrium neither warms nor cools.

Another couple of ding mistakes.

How many does it take before you consider the possibility that you may have gotten both AGW and glacial cycles wrong and find the testicular fortitude to admit it?

 

[skookerasbil]

View attachment 981695

View attachment 981697

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity

View attachment 981698

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity

View attachment 981700

Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!

View attachment 981701

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Contents Summary Statement Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency Analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics Model simulations of greenhouse warming...

www.gfdl.noaa.gov

lol.....but we remember last summer when the big ass hurricane ramped up to a Cat 5 real fast and you were all giddy spiking footballs. 24 hours later, it was a total dud.

Whoooops

 

[Crick]

lol.....but we remember last summer when the big ass hurricane ramped up to a Cat 5 real fast and you were all giddy spiking footballs. 24 hours later, it was a total dud.

Whoooops

Perhaps you never noticed this since you care so little what is going on around you, but all hurricanes come to an end.

 

[ding]

Bullshit. Glaciation doesn't take place till the planet cools. It doesn't happen by itself. The thing you've been searching for: a periodic external function to drive planetary climate changes has a name: Milankovitch Orbital Forcing.

Glaciation occurs when the temperature in the Arctic reaches a threshold temperature which AMOC switch off accomplishes and orbital cycles do not. Then as the Arctic glaciates the negative feedback amplifies it and glaciation spreads. Maybe look at how many glacial cycles have occurred over the last 3 million years.

 

[ding]

That's funny, you JUST said something just a wee bit different.

That's usually how it works when someone asks for clarification. Stop playing dumb.

 

[ding]

A climate in equilibrium neither warms nor cools.

Another couple of ding mistakes.

How many does it take before you consider the possibility that you may have gotten both AGW and glacial cycles wrong and find the testicular fortitude to admit it?

I think you are intentionally being obtuse.

There is an equilibrium temperature that is based upon the current landmass distribution for glacial periods and interglacial periods. Absent NH glaciation the equilibrium temperature for interglacial periods would be warmer if ocean currents continued circulating heat from the Atlantic to the Arctic. But since ocean currents switch on and off based upon density changes (i.e. salinity and thermal) interglacial temperatures which would have been warmer without NH glaciation are never reached because the ocean currents change because of temperature which affects salinity and thermal expansion.

 

[Crick]

Glaciation occurs when the temperature in the Arctic reaches a threshold temperature which AMOC switch off accomplishes

And what causes the AMOC to switch off?

and orbital cycles do not.

Orbital cycles reinforced by CO2 going in and out of solution do. Every scientists I can find says exactly that. No scientist you can find supports your claim. None. How is that doesn't bother you?

Then as the Arctic glaciates the negative feedback amplifies it and glaciation spreads.

And what stops it? Why do we ever warm up?

Maybe look at how many glacial cycles have occurred over the last 3 million years.

Approximately 30. Do you think the world has gone through thirty, different, PERIODIC, landmass configurations in the last 3 million years? That's a new configuration every 100,000 years. In 100,000 year, tectonic plates move about 28.4 miles. And they are not moving back and forth. How does tectonic movement produce a pattern that looks like this:

Three Million Years of Climate Change

Using reconstructions of global temperature based on oxygen isotope ratio analyses of ocean sediment cores and polar glacial ice cores we can look back at the Earth’s climate for about 800,00…

oz4caster.wordpress.com

When are you going to stop embarrassing yourself with this?

 

[Crick]

That's usually how it works when someone asks for clarification. Stop playing dumb.

No, it's not. It occurs when someone asks for clarification and you never actually had a coherent thought in your head. You made up and used the term "native state" because you thought it sounded impressive, because you thought it would sound as if you knew what you were talking about. Didn't work, did it.