I wonder if you understand anything about how the price is set in the market.
Have you ever heard of Oil Futures before?
Do you understand that projections for drilling go several years out....and when someone cuts off new drilling permits it effects the price of Oil Futures. But it doesn't matter how much oil production there is if the feds make the permit and production costs skyrocket on purpose.....which is what Biden has done.
Discover the process of energy production and learn how long it typically takes to move an oil and gas well from the drawing board to production.
www.investopedia.com
Developing New Oil and Gas Fields
While new wells in developed reservoirs can be drilled and brought online in a matter of months, timelines for production from new fields stretch for years because they have complex permitting requirements and require the construction of infrastructure such as pipelines and storage facilities.
One study found the world's largest oil and gas fields averaged 5.5 years from discovery to first production and took 17 years of production on average to reach peak output.10 Chevron Corporation's (
CVX) Gorgon natural gas development project off the coast of Australia took 30 years to progress from discovery to construction and nearly six more years to start producing liquefied natural gas.11
Growth Constraints on Oil and Gas Production
Even the shorter timelines for adding oil and gas production from developed fields assume the availability of inputs such as labor and equipment. That availability became increasingly constrained amid supply chain disruptions and tight labor markets in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the Permian Basin, the top U.S. production reservoir, delivery delays for materials including pipes and sand were slowing production growth in March 2022, according to Occidental Petroleum Corporation (
OXY) Chief Executive Vicki Hollub.12
The tight labor market pushed up annual wage inflation for oil & gas support workers to nearly 11% as of December 2021.2
Because oil and gas drilling is so
capital intensive the availability of capital is another constraint on output. That's especially true for shale, in part because production from shale wells slows faster than from conventional ones. That means more wells must be drilled constantly just to offset the production declines from those already on line.13
In the wake of abrupt energy price declines in 2014 and 2020, investors turned skeptical of
capital spending beyond that needed to keep production steady, rewarding companies that returned excess
cash flow in dividends or
share repurchases. That preference persisted even as oil and gas prices soared in early 2022.14
The limited inventory of sufficiently lucrative drilling locations serves as another constraint on oil and gas production growth, and was already evident in the Permian in 2022.15
The Bottom Line
Producing oil and gas is a complex, long and costly process. As a result, supply is slow to respond to price signals. U.S. drillers face additional production growth constraints because production from shale wells declines more rapidly.