Biden leading in Wisconsin by 17 points!

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DrLove

DrLove

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These polls are going to be exposed for what they are in t- 5 days. I will eat dogshit in bowl if Biden wins by even 10 in Wisconsin. It’s just not going to happen. The only thing polls have been useful for is reading trends. How much weight to give those trends is a different story. The trend in polls is Biden is rapidly loosing ground even with their dogshit methodologies and sampling’s. Trump on the other hand is gaining due to his last debate performance and the hunter Biden emails. Rasmussen now has trump over Biden 48-47 overall nationally. On top of that it was already known that if Biden doesn’t win by over 4pts overall nationally, trump most likely wins the election. It’s starting to look like a blowout for trump. This past week I’ve seen article after article in leftist publications preparing their readers for a possible trump win, questioning the polls, etc.

Now, the worst possible thing (maybe the 2nd worse outside of Biden emails) with the worst possible timing, in the worst possible place that could happen to Biden has happened in philly. Another out of control riot. Over a completely legit shooting. I live in the burbs of Philly. Rioters shooting rioters. Looters shooting looters. Police told to stand down. People are not happy about it all. Biden’s PA stronghold walls are crumbling. He’ll probably win most of the Philly collar counties still, but it’s going to depress dem vote even more. You couldn’t plan and coordinate a more perfect storm for Biden than the laptop, Bobulinski, and a riot in the most important area of the most important state in the election even if you tried.
Boy, you talk about crap polls - Rasmussen qualifies.
You seem confident that Dear Leader will pull off another inside straight. I take nothing for granted but he has MAYBE a 20% chance of doing THAT again.
And nobody cares about Bobulinski or Hunter Biden. But hey man, you're a good little Trumpette regardless. ;)
 
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DrLove

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I provided an entire article with multiple links to decades of scientific studies of RTCs & other papers showing masks have never been proven tp have any significant effect on the transmission of an airborne virus. You provided a google page.
As we have already established with your avatar, you are a piece of sh!t. Now we know you may be the dumbest turd on the planet.
CDC May 2020: "In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks"
"None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group"
"There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."
"Proper use of face masks is essential because improper use might increase the risk for transmission"
Like I said, knock yourself out but nobody will force me to wear a face diaper.

Dumbest turd on the planet? Sorry, those are Trump supporters such as yourself who believe renowned virologist Dotard J Drumpf.
But you did earn yourself a ticket to IGsville with that. Be well Trumptard. :bye1:
 

Bootney Lee Farnsworth

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I provided an entire article with multiple links to decades of scientific studies of RTCs & other papers showing masks have never been proven tp have any significant effect on the transmission of an airborne virus. You provided a google page.
As we have already established with your avatar, you are a piece of sh!t. Now we know you may be the dumbest turd on the planet.
CDC May 2020: "In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks"
"None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group"
"There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."
"Proper use of face masks is essential because improper use might increase the risk for transmission"
Like I said, knock yourself out but nobody will force me to wear a face diaper.

Dumbest turd on the planet? Sorry, those are Trump supporters such as yourself who believe renowned virologist Dotard J Drumpf.
But you did earn yourself a ticket to IGsville with that. Be well Trumptard. :bye1:
You're going to kill yourself on November 4, aren't you?

:laughing0301:
 
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DrLove

DrLove

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If it’s true lol, then it’s a Biden blow out
It CAN'T be true, ya SCHMUCK. What IS ya, ignorant?
Ignorant? NO - Just under a spell of come sort Bluz,

There IS hope!

Personally, I think MAYBE we should deport you in underground/ abandoned Walmart bunkers and utilize to fix your cultism & fealty.
Dr Love
Even though we disagree , we can at least be cordial !
I can tell you’re an older JFK Democrat
I was 6 years old when JFK was assassinated. I suppose I might have been a JFK Democrat if 6 year olds had been allowed to vote in 1963 ;)

Truth be told, my first vote was for a second term for Ronald Reagan. He was one of the last decent Republicans. GHWB was a decent feller too. Since then, your party has sucked. At this point, it's completely over the cliff.

I do wish Republicans well however post Trump. We need at least two healthy parties.
 

sakinago

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These polls are going to be exposed for what they are in t- 5 days. I will eat dogshit in bowl if Biden wins by even 10 in Wisconsin. It’s just not going to happen. The only thing polls have been useful for is reading trends. How much weight to give those trends is a different story. The trend in polls is Biden is rapidly loosing ground even with their dogshit methodologies and sampling’s. Trump on the other hand is gaining due to his last debate performance and the hunter Biden emails. Rasmussen now has trump over Biden 48-47 overall nationally. On top of that it was already known that if Biden doesn’t win by over 4pts overall nationally, trump most likely wins the election. It’s starting to look like a blowout for trump. This past week I’ve seen article after article in leftist publications preparing their readers for a possible trump win, questioning the polls, etc.

Now, the worst possible thing (maybe the 2nd worse outside of Biden emails) with the worst possible timing, in the worst possible place that could happen to Biden has happened in philly. Another out of control riot. Over a completely legit shooting. I live in the burbs of Philly. Rioters shooting rioters. Looters shooting looters. Police told to stand down. People are not happy about it all. Biden’s PA stronghold walls are crumbling. He’ll probably win most of the Philly collar counties still, but it’s going to depress dem vote even more. You couldn’t plan and coordinate a more perfect storm for Biden than the laptop, Bobulinski, and a riot in the most important area of the most important state in the election even if you tried.
Boy, you talk about crap polls - Rasmussen qualifies.
You seem confident that Dear Leader will pull off another inside straight. I take nothing for granted but he has MAYBE a 20% chance of doing THAT again.
And nobody cares about Bobulinski or Hunter Biden. But hey man, you're a good little Trumpette regardless. ;)
Google searches prove otherwise seeing how they’re the top searches out there. Turns out that people do kind of care whether or not they’re voting for a guy whose entire family is involved in making money off of outrageous deals with the worst geopolitical actors in the world. Sorry Charlie.

And y’all were quick to love up on Rasmussen a couple of weeks ago, in fact you can find a couple of threads on it. Outside of trafalger, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2016 and 2018. Trafalger is the only one that has adapted to a world where only a ratio 1-5 gop answers the phone (up from 1-4 in 2016) vs dem ratio 1-1. They also frame questions in order to account for social desirability bias considering everybody lies when they self report to scientific questionnaires, doctors, and more relevantly pollsters. On top of that they make sure their cross-tab data matches the demographics of the actual county they are polling unlike basically every poll out there. The fact you created the thread you did with the abc Wisconsin polls that even the most ardent trump haters with half a brain agree is complete shit shows you don’t know jack shit about polls.

I’ve said it many times before on here. The problems with polling in 2016 have been turned up to 11 in 2020. They’re massively over sampling young people, who generally lean left, who are the most unreliable voters, as well as the most susceptible to social desirability bias since the older you get the less you care about what other people think of you. Bad news for Biden, young people are severely underperforming in early voting in mail-in and early voting. They’re massively undersampling Republicans because of the 1-5 ratio, and only a fool would pretend that they’re gonna fuck with their profit margin by spending 5 times the amount of time, money, and effort it takes to accurately poll republicans in a particular county. Some polls have actually opted to use “opt-in” polling in hopes to combat the 1-5 ratio, which is completely insane and makes the data completely useless. On top of that even the best of polls, Monmouth, Rasmussen, are massively undersampling independents (who fell for trump around 4 pts) by almost 20 POINTS. In 2016 they made up 27-28% of the vote, and they’re polling them at 10% this year in cross-tabs. Absolutely insane, but they can get away with it because dumb people like you don’t pay attention to that sort of thing. independents are once again going trump. In 2016 they saw the worst character flaws of trump the dems are basically running on. 2020 trump actually has a pretty good record to run on. In 2016 trump got 4 out of 10 people who’ve never voted before. I expect that to go up by at least one.

We also have actual hard data in the battleground states to back up what I’ve been saying. GOP voter registration has been putting to shame Dem voter registration in the key battleground states. You can actually use this data to accurately track the historical data where it’s showing causation, not correlation. that data all shows trump up in most of the key battleground states. Biden is in real trouble.

So, would you care to explain to me how Rasmussen last week, in the own words, declared “trump hit the holy grail election number at 52% approval rating”, yet still had Biden +7 ??? There’s your social desirability bias. Obama 2012 won with a 43% rate which is pretty damn high for an incumbent. Last week I would’ve told you it’s going to be close. This week, not so much. Close in some states, but I can easily see trump getting over 330 EC.
 
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DrLove

DrLove

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These polls are going to be exposed for what they are in t- 5 days. I will eat dogshit in bowl if Biden wins by even 10 in Wisconsin. It’s just not going to happen. The only thing polls have been useful for is reading trends. How much weight to give those trends is a different story. The trend in polls is Biden is rapidly loosing ground even with their dogshit methodologies and sampling’s. Trump on the other hand is gaining due to his last debate performance and the hunter Biden emails. Rasmussen now has trump over Biden 48-47 overall nationally. On top of that it was already known that if Biden doesn’t win by over 4pts overall nationally, trump most likely wins the election. It’s starting to look like a blowout for trump. This past week I’ve seen article after article in leftist publications preparing their readers for a possible trump win, questioning the polls, etc.

Now, the worst possible thing (maybe the 2nd worse outside of Biden emails) with the worst possible timing, in the worst possible place that could happen to Biden has happened in philly. Another out of control riot. Over a completely legit shooting. I live in the burbs of Philly. Rioters shooting rioters. Looters shooting looters. Police told to stand down. People are not happy about it all. Biden’s PA stronghold walls are crumbling. He’ll probably win most of the Philly collar counties still, but it’s going to depress dem vote even more. You couldn’t plan and coordinate a more perfect storm for Biden than the laptop, Bobulinski, and a riot in the most important area of the most important state in the election even if you tried.
Boy, you talk about crap polls - Rasmussen qualifies.
You seem confident that Dear Leader will pull off another inside straight. I take nothing for granted but he has MAYBE a 20% chance of doing THAT again.
And nobody cares about Bobulinski or Hunter Biden. But hey man, you're a good little Trumpette regardless. ;)
Google searches prove otherwise seeing how they’re the top searches out there. Turns out that people do kind of care whether or not they’re voting for a guy whose entire family is involved in making money off of outrageous deals with the worst geopolitical actors in the world. Sorry Charlie.

And y’all were quick to love up on Rasmussen a couple of weeks ago, in fact you can find a couple of threads on it. Outside of trafalger, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2016 and 2018. Trafalger is the only one that has adapted to a world where only a ratio 1-5 gop answers the phone (up from 1-4 in 2016) vs dem ratio 1-1. They also frame questions in order to account for social desirability bias considering everybody lies when they self report to scientific questionnaires, doctors, and more relevantly pollsters. On top of that they make sure their cross-tab data matches the demographics of the actual county they are polling unlike basically every poll out there. The fact you created the thread you did with the abc Wisconsin polls that even the most ardent trump haters with half a brain agree is complete shit shows you don’t know jack shit about polls.

I’ve said it many times before on here. The problems with polling in 2016 have been turned up to 11 in 2020. They’re massively over sampling young people, who generally lean left, who are the most unreliable voters, as well as the most susceptible to social desirability bias since the older you get the less you care about what other people think of you. Bad news for Biden, young people are severely underperforming in early voting in mail-in and early voting. They’re massively undersampling Republicans because of the 1-5 ratio, and only a fool would pretend that they’re gonna fuck with their profit margin by spending 5 times the amount of time, money, and effort it takes to accurately poll republicans in a particular county. Some polls have actually opted to use “opt-in” polling in hopes to combat the 1-5 ratio, which is completely insane and makes the data completely useless. On top of that even the best of polls, Monmouth, Rasmussen, are massively undersampling independents (who fell for trump around 4 pts) by almost 20 POINTS. In 2016 they made up 27-28% of the vote, and they’re polling them at 10% this year in cross-tabs. Absolutely insane, but they can get away with it because dumb people like you don’t pay attention to that sort of thing. independents are once again going trump. In 2016 they saw the worst character flaws of trump the dems are basically running on. 2020 trump actually has a pretty good record to run on. In 2016 trump got 4 out of 10 people who’ve never voted before. I expect that to go up by at least one.

We also have actual hard data in the battleground states to back up what I’ve been saying. GOP voter registration has been putting to shame Dem voter registration in the key battleground states. You can actually use this data to accurately track the historical data where it’s showing causation, not correlation. that data all shows trump up in most of the key battleground states. Biden is in real trouble.

So, would you care to explain to me how Rasmussen last week, in the own words, declared “trump hit the holy grail election number at 52% approval rating”, yet still had Biden +7 ??? There’s your social desirability bias. Obama 2012 won with a 43% rate which is pretty damn high for an incumbent. Last week I would’ve told you it’s going to be close. This week, not so much. Close in some states, but I can easily see trump getting over 330 EC.
Rasmussen robocalls landlines. That means old people with too much time on their hands who sit through their push-poll nonsense.
In fairness however, the ABC/WaPo poll was probably an outlier. Marquette had one yesterday that showed a 5 point Biden lead. That one may be an outlier too.

Poll AVERAGES are the best indicator, and they don't look good for your Orange-atan.
*Side note, Republican pollster Trafalgar Group is not to be believed either ;-)


RCP Average10/16 - 10/26----50.343.9Biden +6.4
Trafalgar Group (R)*10/24 - 10/251082 LV2.94847Biden +1
Marquette*10/21 - 10/25749 LV4.44843Biden +5
Reuters/Ipsos10/20 - 10/26664 LV4.05344Biden +9
ABC News/Wash Post*10/20 - 10/25789 LV4.05740Biden +17
FOX News*10/17 - 10/201037 LV3.04944Biden +5
Susquehanna*10/16 - 10/19500 LV4.34545Tie
CNBC/Change Research (D)10/16 - 10/19LV--5244Biden +8
 

sakinago

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These polls are going to be exposed for what they are in t- 5 days. I will eat dogshit in bowl if Biden wins by even 10 in Wisconsin. It’s just not going to happen. The only thing polls have been useful for is reading trends. How much weight to give those trends is a different story. The trend in polls is Biden is rapidly loosing ground even with their dogshit methodologies and sampling’s. Trump on the other hand is gaining due to his last debate performance and the hunter Biden emails. Rasmussen now has trump over Biden 48-47 overall nationally. On top of that it was already known that if Biden doesn’t win by over 4pts overall nationally, trump most likely wins the election. It’s starting to look like a blowout for trump. This past week I’ve seen article after article in leftist publications preparing their readers for a possible trump win, questioning the polls, etc.

Now, the worst possible thing (maybe the 2nd worse outside of Biden emails) with the worst possible timing, in the worst possible place that could happen to Biden has happened in philly. Another out of control riot. Over a completely legit shooting. I live in the burbs of Philly. Rioters shooting rioters. Looters shooting looters. Police told to stand down. People are not happy about it all. Biden’s PA stronghold walls are crumbling. He’ll probably win most of the Philly collar counties still, but it’s going to depress dem vote even more. You couldn’t plan and coordinate a more perfect storm for Biden than the laptop, Bobulinski, and a riot in the most important area of the most important state in the election even if you tried.
Boy, you talk about crap polls - Rasmussen qualifies.
You seem confident that Dear Leader will pull off another inside straight. I take nothing for granted but he has MAYBE a 20% chance of doing THAT again.
And nobody cares about Bobulinski or Hunter Biden. But hey man, you're a good little Trumpette regardless. ;)
Google searches prove otherwise seeing how they’re the top searches out there. Turns out that people do kind of care whether or not they’re voting for a guy whose entire family is involved in making money off of outrageous deals with the worst geopolitical actors in the world. Sorry Charlie.

And y’all were quick to love up on Rasmussen a couple of weeks ago, in fact you can find a couple of threads on it. Outside of trafalger, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2016 and 2018. Trafalger is the only one that has adapted to a world where only a ratio 1-5 gop answers the phone (up from 1-4 in 2016) vs dem ratio 1-1. They also frame questions in order to account for social desirability bias considering everybody lies when they self report to scientific questionnaires, doctors, and more relevantly pollsters. On top of that they make sure their cross-tab data matches the demographics of the actual county they are polling unlike basically every poll out there. The fact you created the thread you did with the abc Wisconsin polls that even the most ardent trump haters with half a brain agree is complete shit shows you don’t know jack shit about polls.

I’ve said it many times before on here. The problems with polling in 2016 have been turned up to 11 in 2020. They’re massively over sampling young people, who generally lean left, who are the most unreliable voters, as well as the most susceptible to social desirability bias since the older you get the less you care about what other people think of you. Bad news for Biden, young people are severely underperforming in early voting in mail-in and early voting. They’re massively undersampling Republicans because of the 1-5 ratio, and only a fool would pretend that they’re gonna fuck with their profit margin by spending 5 times the amount of time, money, and effort it takes to accurately poll republicans in a particular county. Some polls have actually opted to use “opt-in” polling in hopes to combat the 1-5 ratio, which is completely insane and makes the data completely useless. On top of that even the best of polls, Monmouth, Rasmussen, are massively undersampling independents (who fell for trump around 4 pts) by almost 20 POINTS. In 2016 they made up 27-28% of the vote, and they’re polling them at 10% this year in cross-tabs. Absolutely insane, but they can get away with it because dumb people like you don’t pay attention to that sort of thing. independents are once again going trump. In 2016 they saw the worst character flaws of trump the dems are basically running on. 2020 trump actually has a pretty good record to run on. In 2016 trump got 4 out of 10 people who’ve never voted before. I expect that to go up by at least one.

We also have actual hard data in the battleground states to back up what I’ve been saying. GOP voter registration has been putting to shame Dem voter registration in the key battleground states. You can actually use this data to accurately track the historical data where it’s showing causation, not correlation. that data all shows trump up in most of the key battleground states. Biden is in real trouble.

So, would you care to explain to me how Rasmussen last week, in the own words, declared “trump hit the holy grail election number at 52% approval rating”, yet still had Biden +7 ??? There’s your social desirability bias. Obama 2012 won with a 43% rate which is pretty damn high for an incumbent. Last week I would’ve told you it’s going to be close. This week, not so much. Close in some states, but I can easily see trump getting over 330 EC.
Rasmussen robocalls landlines. That means old people with too much time on their hands who sit through their push-poll nonsense.
In fairness however, the ABC/WaPo poll was probably an outlier. Marquette had one yesterday that showed a 5 point Biden lead. That one may be an outlier too.

Poll AVERAGES are the best indicator, and they don't look good for your Orange-atan.
*Side note, Republican pollster Trafalgar Group is not to be believed either ;-)


RCP Average10/16 - 10/26----50.343.9Biden +6.4
Trafalgar Group (R)*10/24 - 10/251082 LV2.94847Biden +1
Marquette*10/21 - 10/25749 LV4.44843Biden +5
Reuters/Ipsos10/20 - 10/26664 LV4.05344Biden +9
ABC News/Wash Post*10/20 - 10/25789 LV4.05740Biden +17
FOX News*10/17 - 10/201037 LV3.04944Biden +5
Susquehanna*10/16 - 10/19500 LV4.34545Tie
CNBC/Change Research (D)10/16 - 10/19LV--5244Biden +8
Poll averages??? What is this 2012. RCP hasn’t been right in 8 years. The RCP method is probably fine if your data is fairly accurate. But the data close accurate isn’t for all the reasons I laid out. Adam Silver hasn’t been right in any election since 2012. 2018 for instance, yes a win for democrats, but we all expected that as it happens for every midterm in favor against the incumbents party, but Guillim up 2-3 over desantis....how did that turn out? Oh yeah desantis won +8. Double digit swing.

IF YOU WANT A POLL TO BE ACCURATE YOUR CROSS-TABS HAVE TO REFLECT THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTY. I cannot emphasize that enough. No poll is coming even close to that...except trafalgar. Not only do they match, they also make sure they have a large enough data pool to sample from aiming for over 1000 people polled per county. Silver is a good data analyst on one hand, but an idiot on the other for continuing to use a method that was off by double digit swings in many states. Obviously there’s a big fucking problem and Silver has his blinders on.
 
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DrLove

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Poll averages??? What is this 2012. RCP hasn’t been right in 8 years. The RCP method is probably fine if your data is fairly accurate. But the data close accurate isn’t for all the reasons I laid out. Adam Silver hasn’t been right in any election since 2012. 2018 for instance, yes a win for democrats, but we all expected that as it happens for every midterm in favor against the incumbents party, but Guillim up 2-3 over desantis....how did that turn out? Oh yeah desantis won +8. Double digit swing.

IF YOU WANT A POLL TO BE ACCURATE YOUR CROSS-TABS HAVE TO REFLECT THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTY. I cannot emphasize that enough. No poll is coming even close to that...except trafalgar. Not only do they match, they also make sure they have a large enough data pool to sample from aiming for over 1000 people polled per county. Silver is a good data analyst on one hand, but an idiot on the other for continuing to use a method that was off by double digit swings in many states. Obviously there’s a big fucking problem and Silver has his blinders on.
I'll still take Nate Silver's word over that of any Trump supporter.

 

easyt65

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Recent Campaign Ad For Biden In Wisconsin...

Joe Biden memes - China loves Joe Biden | Facebook

"I endorse this candidate and
approve
of the fine job Joe is doing."
- Chinese Leader Xi

(This ad was paid for by the 'Biden for China's Bitch' Soros-Xi-funded Super Pact)




.
 

sakinago

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Poll averages??? What is this 2012. RCP hasn’t been right in 8 years. The RCP method is probably fine if your data is fairly accurate. But the data close accurate isn’t for all the reasons I laid out. Adam Silver hasn’t been right in any election since 2012. 2018 for instance, yes a win for democrats, but we all expected that as it happens for every midterm in favor against the incumbents party, but Guillim up 2-3 over desantis....how did that turn out? Oh yeah desantis won +8. Double digit swing.

IF YOU WANT A POLL TO BE ACCURATE YOUR CROSS-TABS HAVE TO REFLECT THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTY. I cannot emphasize that enough. No poll is coming even close to that...except trafalgar. Not only do they match, they also make sure they have a large enough data pool to sample from aiming for over 1000 people polled per county. Silver is a good data analyst on one hand, but an idiot on the other for continuing to use a method that was off by double digit swings in many states. Obviously there’s a big fucking problem and Silver has his blinders on.
I'll still take Nate Silver's word over that of any Trump supporter.

Right...ignore the actual data, and the fact RCP has been just as wrong as the polls it uses...because it’s not good for Biden and therefore must be Trump propaganda. Yeah let’s ignore the fundamentals of data analysis and statistics. Sounds like a great idea.
 
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DrLove

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Right...ignore the actual data, and the fact RCP has been just as wrong as the polls it uses...because it’s not good for Biden and therefore must be Trump propaganda. Yeah let’s ignore the fundamentals of data analysis and statistics. Sounds like a great idea.
Frankly, I'm not seeing much bad news for Biden.

Legitimate pollsters (aka not Rasmussen and Trafalgar) use perfectly sound fundamentals of data analysis and statistics. Ditto with Nate Silver. I'm struggling to find a path for your Donald and I just don't see it.

But like I said, there's a 20% chance Trump pulls another inside straight and a 65% chance he tries to steal the election by coup with the assistance of his stolen SCOTUS seats.

I've got a Senate flip at around 70%.
 

Quasar44

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Right...ignore the actual data, and the fact RCP has been just as wrong as the polls it uses...because it’s not good for Biden and therefore must be Trump propaganda. Yeah let’s ignore the fundamentals of data analysis and statistics. Sounds like a great idea.
Frankly, I'm not seeing much bad news for Biden.

Legitimate pollsters (aka not Rasmussen and Trafalgar) use perfectly sound fundamentals of data analysis and statistics. Ditto with Nate Silver. I'm struggling to find a path for your Donald and I just don't see it.

But like I said, there's a 20% chance Trump pulls another inside straight and a 65% chance he tries to steal the election by coup with the assistance of his stolen SCOTUS seats.

I've got a Senate flip at around 70%.
Your party has become anti American, Anti - Christian , Anti white , you censure the real news to fit your narrative
You support domestic terrorist groups
You want to flood the nation with tens of millions of more 5 th world illegals
You stand for the end of America and your grandchildren will pay the price
 

justoffal

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17 points? Who did they poll :auiqs.jpg:
Yeah i've seen some of their polls....dunno about Wi but Ma I do...

Do you agree that Donald Trump

1.) Worst POTUS ever
2.) Second worst POTUS ever or.....
3.) Third worst POTUS ever

Possible responses...

Yes, affirmative, Of course, Hell yeah!, That's a Big yeppers, All of the above. ( Those who respond in the negative should be aware that many Human resources Managers often review these results online )....

DNC POLLING CENTRAL
 

airplanemechanic

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These polls are going to be exposed for what they are in t- 5 days. I will eat dogshit in bowl if Biden wins by even 10 in Wisconsin. It’s just not going to happen. The only thing polls have been useful for is reading trends. How much weight to give those trends is a different story. The trend in polls is Biden is rapidly loosing ground even with their dogshit methodologies and sampling’s. Trump on the other hand is gaining due to his last debate performance and the hunter Biden emails. Rasmussen now has trump over Biden 48-47 overall nationally. On top of that it was already known that if Biden doesn’t win by over 4pts overall nationally, trump most likely wins the election. It’s starting to look like a blowout for trump. This past week I’ve seen article after article in leftist publications preparing their readers for a possible trump win, questioning the polls, etc.

Now, the worst possible thing (maybe the 2nd worse outside of Biden emails) with the worst possible timing, in the worst possible place that could happen to Biden has happened in philly. Another out of control riot. Over a completely legit shooting. I live in the burbs of Philly. Rioters shooting rioters. Looters shooting looters. Police told to stand down. People are not happy about it all. Biden’s PA stronghold walls are crumbling. He’ll probably win most of the Philly collar counties still, but it’s going to depress dem vote even more. You couldn’t plan and coordinate a more perfect storm for Biden than the laptop, Bobulinski, and a riot in the most important area of the most important state in the election even if you tried.
Boy, you talk about crap polls - Rasmussen qualifies.
You seem confident that Dear Leader will pull off another inside straight. I take nothing for granted but he has MAYBE a 20% chance of doing THAT again.
And nobody cares about Bobulinski or Hunter Biden. But hey man, you're a good little Trumpette regardless. ;)
Google searches prove otherwise seeing how they’re the top searches out there. Turns out that people do kind of care whether or not they’re voting for a guy whose entire family is involved in making money off of outrageous deals with the worst geopolitical actors in the world. Sorry Charlie.

And y’all were quick to love up on Rasmussen a couple of weeks ago, in fact you can find a couple of threads on it. Outside of trafalger, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2016 and 2018. Trafalger is the only one that has adapted to a world where only a ratio 1-5 gop answers the phone (up from 1-4 in 2016) vs dem ratio 1-1. They also frame questions in order to account for social desirability bias considering everybody lies when they self report to scientific questionnaires, doctors, and more relevantly pollsters. On top of that they make sure their cross-tab data matches the demographics of the actual county they are polling unlike basically every poll out there. The fact you created the thread you did with the abc Wisconsin polls that even the most ardent trump haters with half a brain agree is complete shit shows you don’t know jack shit about polls.

I’ve said it many times before on here. The problems with polling in 2016 have been turned up to 11 in 2020. They’re massively over sampling young people, who generally lean left, who are the most unreliable voters, as well as the most susceptible to social desirability bias since the older you get the less you care about what other people think of you. Bad news for Biden, young people are severely underperforming in early voting in mail-in and early voting. They’re massively undersampling Republicans because of the 1-5 ratio, and only a fool would pretend that they’re gonna fuck with their profit margin by spending 5 times the amount of time, money, and effort it takes to accurately poll republicans in a particular county. Some polls have actually opted to use “opt-in” polling in hopes to combat the 1-5 ratio, which is completely insane and makes the data completely useless. On top of that even the best of polls, Monmouth, Rasmussen, are massively undersampling independents (who fell for trump around 4 pts) by almost 20 POINTS. In 2016 they made up 27-28% of the vote, and they’re polling them at 10% this year in cross-tabs. Absolutely insane, but they can get away with it because dumb people like you don’t pay attention to that sort of thing. independents are once again going trump. In 2016 they saw the worst character flaws of trump the dems are basically running on. 2020 trump actually has a pretty good record to run on. In 2016 trump got 4 out of 10 people who’ve never voted before. I expect that to go up by at least one.

We also have actual hard data in the battleground states to back up what I’ve been saying. GOP voter registration has been putting to shame Dem voter registration in the key battleground states. You can actually use this data to accurately track the historical data where it’s showing causation, not correlation. that data all shows trump up in most of the key battleground states. Biden is in real trouble.

So, would you care to explain to me how Rasmussen last week, in the own words, declared “trump hit the holy grail election number at 52% approval rating”, yet still had Biden +7 ??? There’s your social desirability bias. Obama 2012 won with a 43% rate which is pretty damn high for an incumbent. Last week I would’ve told you it’s going to be close. This week, not so much. Close in some states, but I can easily see trump getting over 330 EC.
Rasmussen robocalls landlines. That means old people with too much time on their hands who sit through their push-poll nonsense.
In fairness however, the ABC/WaPo poll was probably an outlier. Marquette had one yesterday that showed a 5 point Biden lead. That one may be an outlier too.

Poll AVERAGES are the best indicator, and they don't look good for your Orange-atan.
*Side note, Republican pollster Trafalgar Group is not to be believed either ;-)


RCP Average10/16 - 10/26----50.343.9Biden +6.4
Trafalgar Group (R)*10/24 - 10/251082 LV2.94847Biden +1
Marquette*10/21 - 10/25749 LV4.44843Biden +5
Reuters/Ipsos10/20 - 10/26664 LV4.05344Biden +9
ABC News/Wash Post*10/20 - 10/25789 LV4.05740Biden +17
FOX News*10/17 - 10/201037 LV3.04944Biden +5
Susquehanna*10/16 - 10/19500 LV4.34545Tie
CNBC/Change Research (D)10/16 - 10/19LV--5244Biden +8
If you take a bunch of junk polls and average them, you get the average of a bunch of junk polls.

You didn't learn from 2016 did you?
 

Markle

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Yes Donald - COVID COVID COVID!!
Uncle Joe by THIRTY points among women? :omg:
Rump should have realized by now that his maskless Super-Spreader events are costing him VOTES.

A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.​
Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.​


Yep, you've got this in the bag! Kick back and relax!

 
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basquebromance

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Biden would be the President of Layoffs, Lockdowns and Misery

Trump will be the president of Jobs, Life-Saving Vaccines, and Prosperity
 

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