Bad Economy? Give Us More Numbers Like This!

[Annie]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=alsHrL2EsggE&refer=home

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in January to a six-month high after the economy added more jobs and incomes grew, raising the odds that spending will spur the economy.

The Conference Board's index increased to 103.4 from a revised 102.7 in December that was higher than first reported, the New York-based research group said today. Optimism about the current economic situation rose to the highest since May 2002, helping fuel gains in stock prices and the dollar.

Consumer purchases probably rose at the fastest pace in more than four years from July through December, and weekly retail surveys suggest shoppers haven't let up this month. Last year was the best on record for sales of previously owned homes, the National Association of Realtors said today.

``Consumer spending has been stellar for the past two quarters, so that these levels of consumer optimism are evidently consistent with robust demand,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Previously owned homes sold at a 6.69 million annual rate in December after 6.92 million a month earlier, the Washington-based Realtors group said. Existing home sales totaled 6.675 million in 2004, a 9.4 percent rise from a year earlier.

Economists forecast the confidence index would fall to 101 this month, based on the median of 65 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, from December's previously reported reading of 102.3. Estimates ranged from 98 to 107.5, and just nine of the economists surveyed forecast an increase.

Stocks Rise

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 10 points, or 0.9 percent, at 11:23 a.m. in New York. The dollar rose to 104.02 yen, from 102.63 yesterday, and extended its gain against the euro, rising to $1.2963 from $1.3060 yesterday. The Treasury's 4 1/4 percent note maturing in November 2014 fell 11/32, pushing up the yield 4 basis points to 4.17 percent.

Next week, Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to raise interest rates a sixth time since June to keep inflation from accelerating, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Central bankers on Dec. 14 raised their target rate by a quarter point to 2.25 percent.

``We're optimistic for another strong year this year,'' said David Ratcliffe, chief executive officer at Southern Co., in an interview. Southern is Georgia's largest utility owner. ``The economy is strong and usage is up. It seems like a good indication of the economy being strong.''

Michigan Sentiment

The rise in Conference Board's confidence index runs counter to declines in other measures of consumer attitudes. The University of Michigan's preliminary index of sentiment for January fell to 95.8 from 97.1, the university reported last week.

The Conference Board's measure tends to better reflect changes in the job market, while the university's gauge captures changes in financial conditions such as stock market prices, according to Stanley and other economists.

Recent lows for both indexes occurred in March 2003, with the Conference Board's measure falling to 61.4 and the University of Michigan's dropping to 77.6. Since then, the Conference Board's index has increased 42 points, while the university's gauge has gained about 18 points through this month.

The Conference Board surveys 5,000 households on general economic conditions, their employment prospects and spending plans. The university's preliminary index is based on a phone survey of about 300 households and the final report for the month reflects about 500 responses.

Wage Growth

Wages and salaries rose 4.8 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter after a 5.7 percent increase in the previous three months, according to the latest Commerce Department data.

A gauge of optimism about the present situation rose to 110.9 this month from 105.7 in December. The component of the confidence index that tracks consumers' expectations for the next six months fell to 98.4 from 100.7.

``The consumer is feeling OK about the present economy, but there is nervousness,'' said Delos Smith, a Conference Board economist, in an interview. ``There is no question there is a lot of nervousness out there. Consumers aren't worried about the stock prices. It is energy.'' Consumers ``are very sensitive about gasoline prices.''

The percentage of consumers who saw jobs as hard to get decreased to 24.7 percent, the lowest since August 2002, from 26.4 percent. The percentage who saw jobs as plentiful rose to 20.7 percent this month, the highest since May 2002, compared with 19.4 percent in December.

Spending Plans

The Conference Board survey found consumers had mixed spending plans during the coming six months. More people said they were planning a vacation and buy a used car, while plans to purchase homes and appliances declined.

A gain of 157,000 in December payrolls capped the best year for hiring since 1999, the government reported earlier this month. Workers' weekly earnings, when adjusted for inflation, rose 0.5 percent in December, the most in five months.

Job growth and 30-year mortgage rates averaging less than 6 percent in 2004 helped underpin home sales. Existing home sales fell in two of four regions, declining 4.2 percent in the South and 7.2 percent in the West, today's report showed. Sales rose in the Northeast and Midwest.

For all of 2004, the median price rose 8.3 percent to $184,100, the biggest annual increase since almost 12 percent in 1980. The inventory of houses for sale fell to a record low of 3.9 months in December from 4.3 months.

Fourth Quarter

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, probably rose at a 4.1 percent annul pace last quarter after growing 5.1 percent from July through September, according the median estimate in a separate survey of economists before the Jan. 28 government report on gross domestic product. The back-to- back gains would be the strongest since the six months that ended in March 2000.

The economy is projected to have grown at a 3.5 percent annual rate last quarter, restrained by a record trade deficit, after expanding 4 percent the previous three months, the survey showed. For all 2004, the world's largest economy probably grew 4.4 percent, the most in five years.

Chain-store sales through Jan. 22 were 3.2 percent stronger than the comparable period the prior month, according to a report last week from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Sales were 1.1 percent higher, according to a separate survey by Redbook Research.

Whether confidence is falling or rising may depend on your income, a separate report yesterday showed. Wealthier Americans regained some confidence in the U.S. economy as the year began, according to a report from the McDonald Financial Group.

The percentage of affluent Americans, in a survey taken Dec. 18 to Jan. 7, who were positive about the economy rose to 55 from 48 in October. That's one-point shy of last January's 56 percent and compares with the 2004 high of 61 percent in July.

 

[Polystyrate]

These are six-month comparisons, your saying look this pile of shit isnt as big as was six months ago, but im sorry to burst your bubble...its still a pile of shit.

 

[Polystyrate]

LoL, no im not a bush hater. Why does it seem that every contradictory veiw seems to get labeled a left, liberal, or bush hater in this forum?. I just have some strong feelings about most of these topics and nothing to do tonight.

 

[Mr. P]

These are six-month comparisons, your saying look this pile of shit isnt as big as was six months ago, but im sorry to burst your bubble...its still a pile of shit.

Not really...My 401k took a $65K dive in 1999. It's been somewhat
slow to grow since, and 9/11 didn't help a bit. I just received my end of year statement
and am pleased to see an $11k increase. That's 12 months not 6. Things are better, not perfect, but better and improving.

 

[sealybobo]

These are six-month comparisons, your saying look this pile of shit isnt as big as was six months ago, but im sorry to burst your bubble...its still a pile of shit.

Not really...My 401k took a $65K dive in 1999. It's been somewhat
slow to grow since, and 9/11 didn't help a bit. I just received my end of year statement
and am pleased to see an $11k increase. That's 12 months not 6. Things are better, not perfect, but better and improving.

So let's take a look at a 2005 Republican claiming everything was fine as we were heading towards a great recession. 4 years after 9-11 still using 9-11 as an excuse why things were getting worse for poorly educated blue collar workers. Their jobs going overseas, the cost of healthcare skyrocketing.

Just remember this is what Republicans will do for trump. They will lower the bar and defend everything and then criticize how fast Obama got us out of Bush's great recession