Arctic Ice Off on Good Start this Season.

[Augustine_]

Watching the mad Canadian truckers defy death in their coast to coast protest -- it looks like a frozen tundra from Vancouver to Ottawa. And our low tonight in Middle Tenn is about the same as Saskatchewan, -- I decided to take a quick look at the Arctic Sea Ice extent at NSIDC (Nat Snow/Ice Data Center)

They buried the lead as usual on the MONTHLY chart -- said it was a good start -- but pulling up the chart that compares it to past years -- there's tiny bit MORE that COULD have been said.

View attachment 594148

Not ONLY did it have the highest Minimum pt this fall in 10 years, it's STILL ahead of the other 10 years as it builds to a peak. At this point in the curve, even ONE warm day can spoil it in SOME areas. But you generally dont get a warm day around the ENTIRE Arctic Ocean.

I guess all those sea routes opening up there and causing a huge military build up are just figments of the imagination

 

[skookerasbil]

Rocks graph stops at 2010!!

Ever see the satellite images from 2013? I have....massive increase in ice extent!!

Hey Old Rocks....want me to post up the 2012 photos and then the 2013 ones?

 

[ding]

Watching the mad Canadian truckers defy death in their coast to coast protest -- it looks like a frozen tundra from Vancouver to Ottawa. And our low tonight in Middle Tenn is about the same as Saskatchewan, -- I decided to take a quick look at the Arctic Sea Ice extent at NSIDC (Nat Snow/Ice Data Center)

They buried the lead as usual on the MONTHLY chart -- said it was a good start -- but pulling up the chart that compares it to past years -- there's tiny bit MORE that COULD have been said.

View attachment 594148

Not ONLY did it have the highest Minimum pt this fall in 10 years, it's STILL ahead of the other 10 years as it builds to a peak. At this point in the curve, even ONE warm day can spoil it in SOME areas. But you generally dont get a warm day around the ENTIRE Arctic Ocean.

It's only a matter of time before colder temperatures prove AGW to be false. We are in the middle of an ice age which has been trending colder. Man won't be changing that trend. They'd know that if they actually studied the earth's climate instead of computer models which are uncalibrated to past climate changes.

 

[ding]

EVERYthing runs in cycles that not a completely stable system. INCLUDING climate. And including probably Arctic sea ice.

We can only VERIFY sea ice on any accurate scale since satellites in 1979. HISTORICAL anecdotal evidence says that 1978 or so was a "relative high" for maybe 100 years.

You only need to look at the FOUR in a row Ice Ages in relatively recent climate history. They look like a classic "oscillating system". Maybe and quite probably, that's the NORM and our bleak future.

The big picture does show an ever increasing colder planet.

 

[ding]

Funny how a lying little ass like you posts that and ignores this;
View attachment 594549

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Climate fluctuations are hallmarks of our bipolar glaciated world, dummy. It has to do with the temperature threshold fr extensive continental glaciation of the northern hemisphere.

 

[ding]

I guess all those sea routes opening up there and causing a huge military build up are just figments of the imagination

We're in an interglacial cycle, dummy. What were you expecting?

 

[elektra]

Whats the deal there? You cant get ASSAULT glaciers banned or something in Norway? You can tell an assault glacier just by it's evil looks.

Sea ice can not be accurately measured by satellite.

There are all kinds of problems. If I had the time I would dig up the information.

People think satellites give exact facts, accurate data, but that is very far from the truth.

 

[skookerasbil]

It's only a matter of time before colder temperatures prove AGW to be false. We are in the middle of an ice age which has been trending colder. Man won't be changing that trend. They'd know that if they actually studied the earth's climate instead of computer models which are uncalibrated to past climate changes.

Correct.....but here's the thing....

The warmers think there is a debate going on at the policy-making level. No such thing exists....or has ever existed.
If the science does not transcend to energy policy, it's nothing more than a hobby to debate about.

The prevailing social dogma is....AGW is happening. Been that way for 15 years in the public concsiousness.

But the material ? is.....so what? In the real world, where is it mattering? It's a talking point for folks obsessed with symbolic shit....the rubes win on ENVIRONMENT internet message boards....but nowhere else!

 

[ReinyDays]

Now silly little dumb fuck. it is only the last 42 years in which we have had good satellite data. However, from historic records, here are some conclusions;

View attachment 594908
Results from the newly created 110-year record of Arctic sea ice volume show an unexplained slight decline (black line) in the early 20th century. The current drop (red line), caused by warming temperatures due to climate change, is more than six times as steep.Axel Schweiger/University of Washington

More than 100 years of Arctic sea ice volume reconstructed with help from historic ships’ logbooks

A new study provides a 110-year record of the total volume of Arctic sea ice, using early U.S. ships' voyages to verify the earlier part of the record. The longer record puts the recent loss into...

www.washington.edu

But we do have good temperature data ... and this temperature data confirms that we saw increasing ice pack between 1940-1980 ... due to global cooling ... that's your lie, you refuse to acknowledge decreasing temperatures within our own lifetimes ... but you do know this, and that's why your first graph started at 1980, like a good little liar ...

Thank you for providing the data to prove my point ... shows how little you know of the material at hand ... you did get lucky though, the 42 years of satellite data isn't enough to make any broad predictions about the next 42 years ... not with how little is known about the entire climate system ... did Axel Schweiger explain this to his local student newspaper? ... you also didn't explain the straight lines when both Newton's Law of Gravity and Coulomb's's Law follow inverse squared curves ...

Here we can find Dr Schweiger's explanation of why sea ice extent, as measured by satellites, is such a piss-poor proxy for energy content ... and why only liars would use this as a proxy ... enjoy ...

 

[ReinyDays]

Sea ice can not be accurately measured by satellite.

There are all kinds of problems. If I had the time I would dig up the information.

People think satellites give exact facts, accurate data, but that is very far from the truth.

Satellites only give us 2-Dimensional pictures of what is in fact a 3-Dimensional structure ... each successive generation of GOES satellites improve our resolution of spacial positions and the hydrodynamics going on there ... but we're still only as advanced as "high, middle and low" ...

Satellites do not replace radiosonde data ... which give a continuous trace of all the meteorological parameters from surface into the stratosphere ... and we all wish we had more radiosondes going up on weather balloons every six hours ...

Basically, the satellite images tell us where the clouds are, but not why they are there ... and the "why" is far more important that the "where" whether weather forecasting 48 hours or ... [giggle] ... 100 years ... [chorkle] ...

 

[elektra]

Satellites only give us 2-Dimensional pictures of what is in fact a 3-Dimensional structure ... each successive generation of GOES satellites improve our resolution of spacial positions and the hydrodynamics going on there ... but we're still only as advanced as "high, middle and low" ...

Satellites do not replace radiosonde data ... which give a continuous trace of all the meteorological parameters from surface into the stratosphere ... and we all wish we had more radiosondes going up on weather balloons every six hours ...

Basically, the satellite images tell us where the clouds are, but not why they are there ... and the "why" is far more important that the "where" whether weather forecasting 48 hours or ... [giggle] ... 100 years ... [chorkle] ...

It is guess work when it comes to ice

 

[whitehall]

The unstated purpose of a bureaucracy, especially a federal bureaucracy, is to get bigger and receive more funding. The NSIDC is a bureaucracy and if it's mission is to calculate the alleged loss of Arctic ice they will most likely pursue the mission by fudging just a little data to please the G.W. activists in the administration.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Now silly little dumb fuck. it is only the last 42 years in which we have had good satellite data. However, from historic records, here are some conclusions;

View attachment 594908
Results from the newly created 110-year record of Arctic sea ice volume show an unexplained slight decline (black line) in the early 20th century. The current drop (red line), caused by warming temperatures due to climate change, is more than six times as steep.Axel Schweiger/University of Washington

More than 100 years of Arctic sea ice volume reconstructed with help from historic ships’ logbooks

A new study provides a 110-year record of the total volume of Arctic sea ice, using early U.S. ships' voyages to verify the earlier part of the record. The longer record puts the recent loss into...

www.washington.edu

PIOMAS is a MODELING construct as explained by the Polar Science Center where the model set up dominates the results when it should be the other way around as it is with SII and MASIE.

Your chart is very misleading and dishonest as it mixes proxy and satellite data into a single chart with different resolutions.

That is dumb as shit!

Excerpt:

Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) developed at APL/PSC. Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 -2020 period for that day of the year to remove the annual cycle. The model mean annual cycle of sea ice volume over this period ranges from 28,000 km3 in April to 11,500 km3 in September. The blue line represents the trend calculated from January 1 1979 to the most recent date indicated on the figure. Shaded areas represent one and two standard deviations of the residuals of the anomaly from the trend in Fig 1 and standard deviations about the daily 1979-2017 mean in Fig 2.

=====

Sea Ice Index and MASIE use satellite data for their charts and have similar results:

LINK
===

LINK

===

From the NOAA,

SII is from NSIDC

MASIE is from NSIDC

 

[Sunsettommy]

It is guess work when it comes to ice

Satellites lack the resolution to see all of the ice which is why it can only be a ballpark number, but it still has some value when applied over the years consistently.

 

[flacaltenn]

Sea ice can not be accurately measured by satellite.

There are all kinds of problems. If I had the time I would dig up the information.

People think satellites give exact facts, accurate data, but that is very far from the truth.

The problem could be that the satellites are ACTUALLY too accurate. You see that when they changed from shorebased tide gauges and a handful of buoys to the satellite record. The sats now measure ALL of the ocean the oceans are NOT FLAT.

The sat accuracy is just about sub-millimeter. The MEAN flatness of the oceans varies by maybe 2 or 5 millimeters. And CURRENTS and WINDS are largely responsible for that. And they WILL change with weather.

So when measure the AVG rise in Sea level across the oceans for the entire SAT record -- MOST of the sea level rise is in these SAME AREAS where the oceans are traditionally higher than the rest of world.

Could find a "mean sea level" pic showing the higher spots. But it's roughly the SAME as this chart showing the "anomaly" of measured SLevel rise over the satellite record.

NOTE: that the VAST MAJORITY of "sea level rise" attributed to global warming is NO WHERE NEAR COASTLINES !!!!!! And wouldn't have been measured AT ALL by the tide qauge systems.

 

[flacaltenn]

That BTW -- is a prime example of the STUPIDITY of GW when they simply focus on WHOLE EARTH averages to boil up a SINGLE SCARY NUMBER to make weak minds shit their panties.

Reducing COMPLEX problems like these to a SINGLE scary number is the dumbest way to UNDERSTAND the "climate".

 

[Sunsettommy]

That BTW -- is a prime example of the STUPIDITY of GW when they simply focus on WHOLE EARTH averages to boil up a SINGLE SCARY NUMBER to make weak minds shit their panties.

Reducing COMPLEX problems like these to a SINGLE scary number is the dumbest way to UNDERSTAND the "climate".

The same when they scream GLOBAL warming when 99% of it is actually Northern Hemisphere warming.

Let's move to the Southern Hemisphere where we will be spared of the devilish slight warming trend then we will be saved!

LOL

 

[toobfreak]

You only need to look at the FOUR in a row Ice Ages in relatively recent climate history. They look like a classic "oscillating system". Maybe and quite probably, that's the NORM and our bleak future.

That HAS been the system for at least since the Cryogenian ice age starting about 700 million years ago likely triggering the Avalon Explosion which set forth all life on Earth, whose presence is now likely part and parcel of these oscillations by adding positiove feedback into the oscillations.

 

[Old Rocks]

Rocks graph stops at 2010!!





View attachment 594983



Ever see the satellite images from 2013? I have....massive increase in ice extent!!

Hey Old Rocks....want me to post up the 2012 photos and then the 2013 ones?

LOL But you don't dare show them, do you. Because they show your massive increase 2 million square kilometers less than the starting amount in 1979. You silly ass deniers are such losers.

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum | NASA Global Climate Change

Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Current news and data streams about global warming and climate change from NASA.

climate.nasa.gov

Video: Annual Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 1979-2022 with Area Graph - NASA Science

Video: A visualization of the annual Arctic sea ice "minimum" for each year from 1979 through 2022.

climate.nasa.gov

 

[Old Rocks]

PIOMAS is a MODELING construct as explained by the Polar Science Center where the model set up dominates the results when it should be the other way around as it is with SII and MASIE.

Your chart is very misleading and dishonest as it mixes proxy and satellite data into a single chart with different resolutions.

That is dumb as shit!

Excerpt:

Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) developed at APL/PSC. Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 -2020 period for that day of the year to remove the annual cycle. The model mean annual cycle of sea ice volume over this period ranges from 28,000 km3 in April to 11,500 km3 in September. The blue line represents the trend calculated from January 1 1979 to the most recent date indicated on the figure. Shaded areas represent one and two standard deviations of the residuals of the anomaly from the trend in Fig 1 and standard deviations about the daily 1979-2017 mean in Fig 2.

=====

Sea Ice Index and MASIE use satellite data for their charts and have similar results:

View attachment 595235

LINK
===

View attachment 595238

LINK

===

From the NOAA,

SII is from NSIDC

MASIE is from NSIDC

September turning | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis