Any Bond Investors in here

[Dr.Know]

been a day trader since 2008 but I realize that soon it may be time to jump into long term Treasuries and Im looking at the 30 yr bond. I am a noobie to bonds but have been studying the basics

My idea is to watch the Fed Prime rate until it PEAKS and then try to jump into a 30 yr T-Bond with a yield of 6% or greater.

Is this idea a possibility ???? I remember in 1980 when the Fed rate hit 21.5% but I was only 22 and starving to death.

Can any of you smart folks tell me what would signal the End of The Fed raising Rates ?????

My thoughts are that when Inflation is around 2% ( the feds target) it would be the time to jump into a 30 yr Tbond.

 

[Synthaholic]

Hmmm...Dr. Know talking about Bonds...

My favorite was Timothy Dalton.

 

[Dr.Know]

I think Daniel Craig was the best Bond since Mr.Connery. Roger Moore was great during the COMIC Era of bond and Dalton was also the most sophisticated of them all. The new bond sucks arse as it is totally WOKE. Q is a beta soy boy and 007 IS A BLACK FEMALE ( how fxcking predictable).

Check out The Man from Uncle 2015 , if you like spy flicks,,,,

 

[toobfreak]

Hmmm...Dr. Know talking about Bonds...My favorite was Timothy Dalton.

I have 7 shares of Goldfinger Unlimited myself.

 

[Cellblock2429]

been a day trader since 2008 but I realize that soon it may be time to jump into long term Treasuries and Im looking at the 30 yr bond. I am a noobie to bonds but have been studying the basics

My idea is to watch the Fed Prime rate until it PEAKS and then try to jump into a 30 yr T-Bond with a yield of 6% or greater.

Is this idea a possibility ???? I remember in 1980 when the Fed rate hit 21.5% but I was only 22 and starving to death.

Can any of you smart folks tell me what would signal the End of The Fed raising Rates ?????

My thoughts are that when Inflation is around 2% ( the feds target) it would be the time to jump into a 30 yr Tbond.

/---/ No one makes money on bonds, except bond traders on wall Street. Why not Treasury iBonds. So much easier and you can get out with a small penalty. Besides, if you've been a day trader for so long, you'll get bored with the bonds quickly.

I bonds — TreasuryDirect

www.treasurydirect.gov

 

[Mac1958]

been a day trader since 2008 but I realize that soon it may be time to jump into long term Treasuries and Im looking at the 30 yr bond. I am a noobie to bonds but have been studying the basics

My idea is to watch the Fed Prime rate until it PEAKS and then try to jump into a 30 yr T-Bond with a yield of 6% or greater.

Is this idea a possibility ???? I remember in 1980 when the Fed rate hit 21.5% but I was only 22 and starving to death.

Can any of you smart folks tell me what would signal the End of The Fed raising Rates ?????

My thoughts are that when Inflation is around 2% ( the feds target) it would be the time to jump into a 30 yr Tbond.

If you think inflation has peaked, it's a good time to buy bonds. TLT and/or EDV, for example, would be a good idea if you like ETFs.

 

[Synthaholic]

Check out The Man from Uncle 2015 , if you like spy flicks,,,,

That starred Superman and that inheritance-rich piece of shit who abuses women.

 

[multivita-man]

been a day trader since 2008 but I realize that soon it may be time to jump into long term Treasuries and Im looking at the 30 yr bond. I am a noobie to bonds but have been studying the basics

My idea is to watch the Fed Prime rate until it PEAKS and then try to jump into a 30 yr T-Bond with a yield of 6% or greater.

Is this idea a possibility ???? I remember in 1980 when the Fed rate hit 21.5% but I was only 22 and starving to death.

Can any of you smart folks tell me what would signal the End of The Fed raising Rates ?????

My thoughts are that when Inflation is around 2% ( the feds target) it would be the time to jump into a 30 yr Tbond.

I think we're seeing the beginning (not the end) of it, with the layoffs of big tech employees. Amazon is going to lay of 10,000 employees -- right as they hit their busiest season of the year. Meta is laying people off. Others will follow.

Besides the Russian/Ukraine war and supply chain issues, one of the reasons for sticky inflation is that the people who benefited the most from the highly unique conditions of the pandemic economy have a shit ton of money and until right around now, they've had nice jobs that pay them a lot of money -- in addition to having stayed home and zoomed during the pandemic and receiving stimulus checks. These high tech employees and households are probably (aside from rapacious corporate profits) the biggest non-war and non-supply chain cause of inflation.

The big layoffs that have just started and are sure to continue will be bifurcated: the Uber and Amazon drivers and lower wage service employees will probably keep on working. The higher-paid middle managers and tech workers are going to get shafted. Unlike most waves of job losses, this will be a white collar recession. The growth isn't there for these companies anymore, and they will have to shed all that excess pandemic-era labor that they brought on to deal with the surge in demand in 2020-21.

It's estimated that collective HH savings is at $1.5 T - down from $2 to 2.5 T a year ago, but still a ways to go before companies rebalance the economy in favor of employers. The Fed wanted a recession, particularly a white collar recession, because they wanted to avoid a runaway wage-spiral inflation scenario in which higher earners keep spending, keep driving demand for goods, and in turn keep driving demand for new labor, which can basically demanding higher salaries, but leaving low-wage earners in the dust. The Fed knows that's the kind of situation that can lead to crime and food riots.

When does it end? I'd guess mid to late 2023. The amount of rate increases may get smaller before then, but they'll still probably increase well into next year, and maybe beyond.

 

[flan327]

That starred Superman and that inheritance-rich piece of shit who abuses women.

Do you speak English?

 

[Dr.Know]

thanks for all the input,,,,,im looking for long term steady cash income with NO RISK, so the 30 yr bond would probably be ideal.
Some bond traders are saying that when Inflation gets down to 5%,,,they are going to get into the longer term bonds.

 

[Flopper]

been a day trader since 2008 but I realize that soon it may be time to jump into long term Treasuries and Im looking at the 30 yr bond. I am a noobie to bonds but have been studying the basics

My idea is to watch the Fed Prime rate until it PEAKS and then try to jump into a 30 yr T-Bond with a yield of 6% or greater.

Is this idea a possibility ???? I remember in 1980 when the Fed rate hit 21.5% but I was only 22 and starving to death.

Can any of you smart folks tell me what would signal the End of The Fed raising Rates ?????

My thoughts are that when Inflation is around 2% ( the feds target) it would be the time to jump into a 30 yr Tbond.

30 yr T bonds peaked at 4.4% on Oct 24. They have currently fallen to 3.8%. I am not a trader. I have been buying bonds for nearly 50 years to keep my portfolio balanced. My portfolio of bonds is laddered, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr, and 30 yr. If I were a betting man, I would bet the FED will stick to the .75% a month increases until inflation is down to at least 5%. However if the economy is contracting they will stop. For example if unemployment is rising for at least 3 months accompanied falling retail sales, they will stop. I may be wrong but I doubt you will see a 6%30yr. The last time we had 6% was in 2000. In the 2008 recession the 30yr rose from 3.5% to 4.7%.

 

[MarathonMike]

30 yr T bonds peaked at 4.4% on Oct 24. They have currently fallen to 3.8%. I am not a trader. I have been buying bonds for nearly 50 years to keep my portfolio balanced. My portfolio of bonds is laddered, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr, and 30 yr. If I were a betting man, I would bet the FED will stick to the .75% a month increases until inflation is down to at least 5%. However if the economy is contracting they will stop. For example if unemployment is rising for at least 3 months accompanied falling retail sales, they will stop. I may be wrong but I doubt you will see a 6%30yr. The last time we had 6% was in 2000. In the 2008 recession the 30yr rose from 3.5% to 4.7%.

I was going to buy 2 year T-Bills until CDs shot up. I just bought some CDs paying over 4%. I don't like the idea of a 30 year fixed note, just a personal preference.