Arianrhod
Gold Member
- Jul 24, 2015
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Of course it makes yours out of date and this one right at this timeMissourian, our poll is three to four months out of date, yes?
Yes, but that doesn't make it wrong, or this one right. That's why an average of polls is the best way to smooth outliers. There are also -10 points of difference between the USA Today poll that was earlier and the Quinnipiac Poll.
Add this one to the average.
Not at all, this one looks exactly like the USA Today numbers. Either they were wrong before, or the other polls were wrong after...and either way it discredits the veracity of any stand alone poll.
I get that you guys WANT these numbers to be taken at face value, but logic dictates that they should not be. And the same would be true if the numbers were the other way around...except these other posters would be arguing my side if that were indeed the case.
If you are taking the stand that only trends give a true indication of actual voter sentiments then the RCP trends point exactly to where the OP poll is today.
Why are you surprised that the trends are going this way? It was inevitable that they would cross at some point and the OP poll indicates that we have reached that point.
If you look at all the data, the trend has actually been relatively flat. Roughly 40% for and 50% against.
Let's wait for the next two or three polls...if they stay in the positive, then you'll have a trend.
Right now, this is an outlier. That doesn't mean it won't become mainstream...but for the moment, it is not.
You cited a poll from USA Today. The most recent one I was able to find was from April. Is that the one you meant, or can you post a more current one?