Next week? They can't even get the temp right the NEXT day. The forecast this past few weeks have been off by a lot. Forecast temps in the 60s and we wound up nearly 80. Temps forecast in the 70s and we barely made it to the 60s. being off by 10 degrees is now becoming normal.
Have a 100% chances of rain? Not a drop fell. Forecast a 10% chance of rain and it showered all day long. Forecast a beautiful weekend all week until Friday night and then change it to rain all weekend..
My story is I woke up before sunrise and checked the 3am forecast ... cold, wet and windy ... not a good day to mow my fields so puttering around finding indoor work I took the time to watch the sunrise ... and it "dawned" on me that is was going to be a great mowing day ... warm, dry and sunny ... just
three hours later ...
The clue was when I started my mower, big plumes of steam were pouring out ... the exhaust, the fence, anything in line with the exhaust ... I figure the air temperature was about a half a degree to high for condensation, so no clouds, no storm, no wind ... just a half a degree to high ...
So give them forecasters a break ... it's a tough job and they're doing the best they can ... computer models are only a little more accurate than the traditional "go look at the clouds" forecasting out 72 hours ... where models shine is they
very good a saying how accurate the forecast is ... "the models are everyplace, we have no idea what the weather will be tomorrow, the forecast is climate averages" ...
Past 72 hours, forecasts are categorically inaccurate unless there's a reason to believe otherwise ... sometimes the models all converge on a single forecast out 5 days, but not very often ...
The NHC writes and posts an exhaustive error analysis during the off-season ... it's an interesting read if you want the nasty details ...