Really good visuals and write up by the New York Times if you can access it.
Basically says:
Biden will win if he takes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Trump will win if he takes any of those (PA, MI, WI)
Lays out other scenarios with Biden winning GA or NV/AZ and losing a midwest state or Trump losing GA and winning some others but basically it is a 3 state race of PA, MI, WI seemingly.
Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps
While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances. The Biden campaign will need to decide this summer which states to contest hardest. Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump.
Seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Trumps route has lots of options if he wins NC & GA but all he needs is PA.
Biden needs the Midwest, if he wins PA and WI all he needs is Michigan.
Basically says:
Biden will win if he takes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Trump will win if he takes any of those (PA, MI, WI)
Lays out other scenarios with Biden winning GA or NV/AZ and losing a midwest state or Trump losing GA and winning some others but basically it is a 3 state race of PA, MI, WI seemingly.
Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps
While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances. The Biden campaign will need to decide this summer which states to contest hardest. Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump.
Seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Trumps route has lots of options if he wins NC & GA but all he needs is PA.
Biden needs the Midwest, if he wins PA and WI all he needs is Michigan.