CDZ We do love to extrapolate!

[PredFan]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

Why do you waste your time trying to bring the two sides together? It's time to get off the fence dude.

 

[william the wie]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

The mass congressional retirements among the Rs indicate that the Rs are cleaning house. I don't see any evidence of such purge happening among the Ds, just quadrupling down on the old stand bys.

 

[evenflow1969]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

Why do you waste your time trying to bring the two sides together? It's time to get off the fence dude.

When two idiots are fighting the most logical place to be is on the fence! I do not like to fan the flame of idiocy! I have people like sunnieman try to tell me pressure does not effect the universe! I can see no benefit in fanning the flames of that idot in any way shape or form!

 

[Mac1958]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.

I thought about 9/11 when I wrote that. It didn’t TRULY affect enough Americans to make us cohesive as a country. We all came together superficially, but you’re right, not for long.

I think that many of the divisions that are pulling us apart are based on very shallow extrapolation. Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

Now, to be fair, many of our political behaviors are now quite predictable, because so many of us are so bound to an ideology that gives us intellectual marching orders. So these behavioral patterns are essentially feeding on themselves.

Anyway, in the time since I first heard this notion about "extrapolation", I've applied it to more and more things in regular life and work. It does change your thinking and force you to dig a little deeper & more cautiously when making assumptions.
.

I say people are not extropolating. They are picking the best out come they can think of and ignoring realities. They only pay attention to the data plots well above the average distrobution line if it supports their ideology and ingnore all below it.

Well, when it comes to politics, it's virtually all short-term "beat the other side at any cost" thinking.

Generally, "at any cost" is a euphemism for "lying like crazy".
.

 

[Mac1958]

It's time to get off the fence dude.

My side of the fence is clearly identified in the first line of my sig.

I take incoming from both ends every day as a result, so I suspect it's a little more challenging for me.

That's fine. I get to be honest at all times. Easy peasy.
.

 

[oldsoul]

Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

I would add that, for many(most on USMB, I would dare to say), EVERYTHING is political. Therefore, politics are EVERYTHING, to those who cannot/refuse to separate politics from other topics.

 

[Mac1958]

Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

I would add that, for many(most on USMB, I would dare to say), EVERYTHING is political. Therefore, politics are EVERYTHING, to those who cannot/refuse to separate politics from other topics.

Yep. Weird how it seems to become a part of people's self esteem. Their ego gets tied into it, and they're then afraid to give an inch.
.

 

[oldsoul]

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

 

[Natural Citizen]

Well. Heh. There's always QE but it sure is a mother trucker, ain't it? lol. But I digress.

 

[oldsoul]

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration

Thank you for your honesty. It is truly refreshing, especially for someone who admits to being on "the left". Don';t worry, I won't hold that against you. LOL I would put myself somewhere to the "right", but certainly no Republican. I see some good things from Trump, and some things that cause me great concern. So, I guess that makes me a "fence sitter". LOL I like fences, but walls are more comfortable.

 

[william the wie]

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

There already has been shootings and other criminal acts by Antifa how is this a non-violent civil war.

 

[oldsoul]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

If “cleaning one’s own house” involves party infighting, that’s dangerous.

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration. Do I want them to do it with integrity? Absolutely. Would I impede my own party if they were obstructing the current administration in a less-than-honest way? It would have to be pretty egregious malfeasance. Because what I see is some pretty awful malfeasance in this administration, and I want it to end.

Commence ripping me to shreds for having a preference.

Well, "infighting" is a choice. This country needs these parties to get their act together. Not just one of them (although yeah, I'd sure like to see the Democrats go first), but both. To me, what's needed is that each party has to raise their standards for behavior and rhetoric.

But there's simply no motivation to. Trump won by playing to his base, and any success he has will be by playing to his base. The Dems are doing the same thing. That's not only leaving a gaping and growing hole in the middle, it also means that fewer and fewer people are truly being served.

I wish I had some kind of answer.
.

At the risk of simplistic extrapolation, infighting is a predictable consequence of politicians cleaning their own house. There are going to be those who resist.

I wish I had a good answer. Democracy is messy, huh?

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

Why do you waste your time trying to bring the two sides together? It's time to get off the fence dude.

Why? Why must one "pick a side"? Can one not simply want people to stop being so tribal? Can one not just want civil discourse, instead of "civil" unrest? Is one no longer allowed to only want people to discuss things rationally, and leave their "tribe" label at the door? Is that too much to ask? Maybe you believe we are beyond that. If so, I ask you, what makes you think that?

 

[oldsoul]

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.

I think Abraham Lincoln said it best. "A house divided against itself cannot stand."

I fear that is where we are, or at least will be very soon. A house divided against itself. Just look at how many people are talking about the possibility of another "civil war", some are even saying we are currently in the opening salvos of a non-violent civil war. How much more division can this country stand? I have also heard many comparisons to the civil unrest of the 1960's. I'm not convinced we are even at that level, yet, but we seem to be headed that way at an ever increasing "speed".

There already has been shootings and other criminal acts by Antifa how is this a non-violent civil war.

It's relative. Do you see open warfare? I guess one could say that a "war of words"(more like insults) has been occuring. I say, that has been going on since governments began though so, nothing new there.

Question: Do you believe we are in a "civil war" at the moment? Why?

 

[Mac1958]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

If “cleaning one’s own house” involves party infighting, that’s dangerous.

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration. Do I want them to do it with integrity? Absolutely. Would I impede my own party if they were obstructing the current administration in a less-than-honest way? It would have to be pretty egregious malfeasance. Because what I see is some pretty awful malfeasance in this administration, and I want it to end.

Commence ripping me to shreds for having a preference.

Well, "infighting" is a choice. This country needs these parties to get their act together. Not just one of them (although yeah, I'd sure like to see the Democrats go first), but both. To me, what's needed is that each party has to raise their standards for behavior and rhetoric.

But there's simply no motivation to. Trump won by playing to his base, and any success he has will be by playing to his base. The Dems are doing the same thing. That's not only leaving a gaping and growing hole in the middle, it also means that fewer and fewer people are truly being served.

I wish I had some kind of answer.
.

At the risk of simplistic extrapolation, infighting is a predictable consequence of politicians cleaning their own house. There are going to be those who resist.

I wish I had a good answer. Democracy is messy, huh?

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

Why do you waste your time trying to bring the two sides together? It's time to get off the fence dude.

Why? Why must one "pick a side"? Can one not simply want people to stop being so tribal? Can one not just want civil discourse, instead of "civil" unrest? Is one no longer allowed to only want people to discuss things rationally, and leave their "tribe" label at the door? Is that too much to ask? Maybe you believe we are beyond that. If so, I ask you, what makes you think that?

What some don't see is that not picking a "side of the fence" actually IS picking a side of the fence, as I point out in the first line of my sig.
.

 

[oldsoul]

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

If “cleaning one’s own house” involves party infighting, that’s dangerous.

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration. Do I want them to do it with integrity? Absolutely. Would I impede my own party if they were obstructing the current administration in a less-than-honest way? It would have to be pretty egregious malfeasance. Because what I see is some pretty awful malfeasance in this administration, and I want it to end.

Commence ripping me to shreds for having a preference.

Well, "infighting" is a choice. This country needs these parties to get their act together. Not just one of them (although yeah, I'd sure like to see the Democrats go first), but both. To me, what's needed is that each party has to raise their standards for behavior and rhetoric.

But there's simply no motivation to. Trump won by playing to his base, and any success he has will be by playing to his base. The Dems are doing the same thing. That's not only leaving a gaping and growing hole in the middle, it also means that fewer and fewer people are truly being served.

I wish I had some kind of answer.
.

At the risk of simplistic extrapolation, infighting is a predictable consequence of politicians cleaning their own house. There are going to be those who resist.

I wish I had a good answer. Democracy is messy, huh?

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

Why do you waste your time trying to bring the two sides together? It's time to get off the fence dude.

Why? Why must one "pick a side"? Can one not simply want people to stop being so tribal? Can one not just want civil discourse, instead of "civil" unrest? Is one no longer allowed to only want people to discuss things rationally, and leave their "tribe" label at the door? Is that too much to ask? Maybe you believe we are beyond that. If so, I ask you, what makes you think that?

What some don't see is that not picking a "side of the fence" actually IS picking a side of the fence, as I point out in the first line of my sig.
.

Yes, it can be. Depends on your reasons. However, to paraphrase an old song; if you do not chose, you still have made a choice.

 

[Mac1958]

However, to paraphrase an old song; if you do not chose, you still have made a choice.

Rush, "Freewill"!


.

 

[impuretrash]

However, to paraphrase an old song; if you do not chose, you still have made a choice.

Rush, "Freewill"!


.

RUSH IS NOT METAL

 

[Mac1958]

However, to paraphrase an old song; if you do not chose, you still have made a choice.

Rush, "Freewill"!


.

RUSH IS NOT METAL

They're kind of their own genre, but no, they're not metal.
.

 

[impuretrash]

However, to paraphrase an old song; if you do not chose, you still have made a choice.

Rush, "Freewill"!


.

RUSH IS NOT METAL

They're kind of their own genre, but no, they're not metal.
.

Progressive hard rock is the genre.

 

[Mac1958]

However, to paraphrase an old song; if you do not chose, you still have made a choice.

Rush, "Freewill"!


.

RUSH IS NOT METAL

They're kind of their own genre, but no, they're not metal.
.

Progressive hard rock is the genre.

Officially, sure. But Geddy! But Peart! They're so cool!
.