Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled

Discussion in 'Environment' started by healthmyths, Mar 29, 2013.

  1. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Research by Ed Hawkins of University of Reading shows surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range projections derived from 20 climate models and if they remain flat, they will fall outside the models' range within a few years.

    "The global temperature standstill shows that climate models are diverging from observations," says David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

    "If we have not passed it already, we are on the threshold of global observations becoming incompatible with the consensus theory of climate change," he says.
    According to The Economist, "given the hiatus in warming and all the new evidence, a small reduction in estimates of climate sensitivity would seem to be justified." On face value, Hansen agrees the slowdown in global temperature rises can be seen as "good news".
    Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

    By the way Hames Hansen has been the BIGGEST champion of Global Warming!!!

    Hmmm... those of us who said the jury was still out on Global Warming... who were the brunt of idiotic comments, jeers as being anti-science... please
    I'm not gloating but here is my little dance!!!

    $cool_spot.gif
     
  2. Freewill
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    Freewill Gold Member

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  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    Yes, the pause in the warming is good news. Temporary good news. Due to the convergence of the massive aerosol release from the burning of coal in China and India, the decrease in the energy we are getting from the sun, and the several strong La Ninas versus the one strong El Nino we have seen since 1998.

    However, we have seen temporary pauses, and even downturns, in the temperature before.

    https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/how-much-has-global-temperature-risen-last-100-years
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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  5. depotoo
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    depotoo Gold Member

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  6. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    Yes, as in the Maunder Minimum. And today, when we have a weaker TSI than in recent years, all we are getting is a pause, not a decline in temperatures.
     
  7. depotoo
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    depotoo Gold Member

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    and, as history repeats itself, one day we will again enter into a cooling phase...
     
  8. Amelia
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    Amelia BANNED

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    How long until the current Ice Age ends?
     
  9. Dont Taz Me Bro
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    Dont Taz Me Bro USMB Mod Staff Member Supporting Member

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    Global warming is caused by sun activity. Only extremist nutters believe in this man made crap.
     
  10. Cowman
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    Cowman Cows Have Liberal Minds

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    That would make most of the world's scientists in this field of study extremist nutters.



    Also I love how much conservatives bounce back and forth between "it's only raising a little bit " or "LOOK, IT's STOPPED!", from "it's actually getting colder".
     
  11. Cowman
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    Cowman Cows Have Liberal Minds

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    Science Proves Man-made Global Warming

    "Before the industrial revolution, atmospheric CO2 levels were about 280 parts per million, which falls within the average range of an inter-Ice Age warm period. Now, though, because of the burning of fossil fuels, atmospheric CO2 is at 390 ppm. This is a very large change over a short period of time. What this means is that over the last 300 years, we’ve raised atmospheric CO2 so much that the difference between pre-Industrial levels and the current concentration is the same as the difference between pre-Industrial levels and the last Ice Age. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that because of this, the average global temperature has gone up about one and a half degrees since the Industrial Revolution. And it will continue to rise as long as we continue to pump more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."
     
  12. Dont Taz Me Bro
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    Dont Taz Me Bro USMB Mod Staff Member Supporting Member

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    There is no science. It's all been corrupted by politics. You automatically assume that because one is a scientists that means they are unbiased.

    By the way, there was a time when most of the world's scientists thought the idea that the earth revolved around the sun was shear lunacy.
     
  13. Political Junky
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    Political Junky Gold Member

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    I agree that corruption occurs when a small number of "scientists" sell out to right wingnuts over established science.
     
  14. Cowman
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    Cowman Cows Have Liberal Minds

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    You're a conspiracy theorist. You think 97% of the world's climate scientists are corrupt.
     
  15. Crackerjaxon
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    Crackerjaxon Senior Member

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    Damn. Now we have to invade India and China.

    I'm sure congressional legislators can take care of the sun problem.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  16. yidnar
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    yidnar Gold Member

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    some scientist believe we are do for another ice age !! the point is that the climate on this planet is undergoing constant changes and shifts [some for long and some for short spans of time ] with or without man kind ..this has been the case for hundreds of millions of yrs .
     
  17. Crackerjaxon
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    Crackerjaxon Senior Member

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    If they say it's science, it has to be true.

    We're seeing the birth of science fundamentalists.

    Hallelujah.
     
  18. Pete7469
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    Pete7469 Destroyer of Marxism

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    Yet another thread where MMGW myths are dealt yet another blow, but the bed wetters will cry foul or attack the messenger. For those of you who cling to Algore's Cult I have the solution to Global Warming, and how we can drastically reduce human production of CO2.

    It will have to be a well coordinated effort undertaken by everyone who believes human beings are causing the earth to heat up and are dedicated to CO2 reduction. It will require a minimal initial expense, but some significant labor costs in the end.

    If you truly believe in changing the earth for the better, this April 20th 2013 at 12 noon eastern standard time (you folks on the west coast might have to set an alarm clock and wake up early) place a plastic bag over your heads and tape it around your neck. Trap all that exhaled CO2 in the bag, relax and take short shallow breaths. You may become tired, but don't give up. Remain that way for at least 12 hours. It is not recommended you perform this procedure on children younger than 16 or on young adults that express skeptisizm.

    I can absolutely guarantee complete success on April 21st. Not only will the world be a cooler place, the collective intelligence of mankind will increase at least %25.
     
  19. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    You mean extremist nutters like the American Institute of Physics, the largest scientific society on earth?

    The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

    You mean like the Geological Society of America;
    The Geological Society of America - Position Statement on Global Climate Change


    Position Statement
    Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. If current trends continue, the projected increase in global temperature by the end of the twentyfirst century will result in large impacts on humans and other species. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adaptation to the changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources.

    Or like the American Geophysical Union;
    http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/pdf/position_statements/AGU_Climate_Statement.pdf

    “The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface temperatures increased on average by about 0.6°C over the period 1956–2006. As of 2006, eleven of the previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities. Recent changes in many physical and biological systems are linked with this regional climate change. A sustained research effort, involving many AGU members and summarized in the 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, continues to improve our scientific understanding of the climate.
    During recent millennia of relatively stable climate, civilization became established and populations have grown rapidly. In the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change—an additional global mean warming of 1°C above the last decade—is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to it. Warming greater than 2°C above 19th century levels is projected to be disruptive, reducing global agricultural productivity, causing widespread loss of biodiversity, and—if sustained over centuries—melting much of the Greenland ice sheet with ensuing rise in sea level of several meters. If this 2°C warming is to be avoided, then our net annual emissions of CO2 must be reduced by more than 50 percent within this century. With such projections, there are many sources of scientific uncertainty, but none are known that could make the impact of climate change inconsequential. Given the uncertainty in climate projections, there can be surprises that may cause more dramatic disruptions than anticipated from the most probable model projections.
    With climate change, as with ozone depletion, the human footprint on Earth is apparent. The cause of disruptive climate change, unlike ozone depletion, is tied to energy use and runs through modern society. Solutions will necessarily involve all aspects of society. Mitigation strategies and adaptation responses will call for collaborations across science, technology, industry, and government. Members of the AGU, as part of the scientific community, collectively have special responsibilities: to pursue research needed to understand it; to educate the public on the causes, risks, and hazards; and to communicate clearly and objectively with those who can implement policies to shape future climate.”
    Adopted by the American Geophysical Union December 2003; Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007, February 2012.
     
  20. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    What we have here is a real time demonstration of the vast ignorance of the 'Conservative' viewpoint. Kiddies, you can't make reality by believing in stupidity. Your willful ignorance is sadly humorous.
     

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