China is not a loose cannon and they certainly value US exports. However, the Chinese government is far more ideological based than the US. The Communist Party is for all practically purposes, the only political party. They allow the free market to exist because it benefits the people. The party maintains a hands off policy compared to the US when it comes to private enterprise and the party expects private enterprise to stay out of party (government) business. When Trump tries to exert pressure on China to negotiate trade by recognizing Taiwan, that is seen by the government as a provocative act that threatens security and thus involves the military.There is no way to tell whether Trump's actions just reflect his incompetence or signal a new direction in US foreign policy.Trump knows what buttons to push to get the Chinese to cooperate. They are much more dependent on the US than the US is on them. He will negotiate from a position of strength, it's the only way to get results.US won't move away, but it will clarify its relationship so that it isn't so one sided, and put China and N. Korea's aggressive behavior on notice.Not a chance. Watch and learn.
That assumes reasonable and good faith behavior from China. I'm not sure they are capable of that. They are deeply invested, financially and emotionally, in the status quo.
No trade negotiations in China takes place without the support of the Chinese Communist Party. Trump's break with a 40 year protocol in an unofficial recognition of Taiwan is a shot across the bow. Trump is thinking trade negotiations. The Communist Party will be thinking military action.
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that should one day be reunified with the mainland. If as president, Trump continues to provoke China with recognition of the ROC, China will respond probably with a military expansion in the South China Sea.
Thinking the US holds all the cards in dealing with China is foolish. 82% of China exports go to countries other than the US. Recent trade agreements between China and Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, and the giant Asian trade pact will reduce dependence on the US even further. Trump's promised exit from the TPP may well allow China to supplant the US in that agreement.
If the Chinese are that much of a loose cannon, then any action on our part is doomed to get an vast over reaction.
IMO, they understand what he is doing, ie signally that he is NOT going to play by their rules, and that he is going to be very aggressive in trade negotiations.
If Chine doesn't need that 400 billion a year, then they should be very much willing to change the trade to be more equal.