The Market Should Start Going up by Jan. 2nd

[william the wie]

AAII is usually a dependable contrarian indicator and it has published its most bearish survey in a very long time. So that indicates stocks should go up in the very near future. Do not expect a roaring bull market because the EU and China are having problems at least bordering on recession. Best guess is that US growth will also slow but not go negative.

 

[S.J.]

Depends on trade talks.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

 

[william the wie]

Depends on trade talks.

Probably not as much as advertised. China has bigger internal and external problems than the EU and the EU is in big trouble.

 

[S.J.]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

Wall Street reacts to rumors and comments. Every time they appear to be making progress, the market goes up. If one of them threatens another tariff, it goes down. When they finally do reach an agreement the bull will reappear (and I'll make a whole bunch of money. heh heh).

 

[danielpalos]

Financing so much Government must affect interest rates.

 

[william the wie]

What's bug nuts crazy about the market now is that Brexit is hanging fire. A hard Brexit and the EU is likely toast.

 

[McRocket]

AAII is usually a dependable contrarian indicator and it has published its most bearish survey in a very long time. So that indicates stocks should go up in the very near future. Do not expect a roaring bull market because the EU and China are having problems at least bordering on recession. Best guess is that US growth will also slow but not go negative.

No offense, but I never follow that 'contrarian indicator' stuff. The same with 'Death Crosses' and all that other stuff. That is the same kind of talk I heard when I used to play the ponies (only with different terms).

It is nothing but wishful thinking, IMO.

Solid fundamentals and (since about 2006) whatever the Fed says are what I watch.

 

[McRocket]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

Wall Street reacts to rumors and comments. Every time they appear to be making progress, the market goes up. If one of them threatens another tariff, it goes down. When they finally do reach an agreement the bull will reappear (and I'll make a whole bunch of money. heh heh).

No it won't unless the Fed co-operates.

The Fed runs the equity markets....they have since at least 2009.

The China trade problems affect only a small portion of the economy. Interest rates effect almost the entire economy in 2018/19.

BTW - there is NO WAY Trump will get huge concessions from China, IMO. What will probably happen is he will realize that his trade war is hurting his re-election chances. So he will get some simple agreement with the Chinese on something small, declare victory and call off his tariffs.
And yes, that would help the markets.

But if the Fed does not stop 'normalizing' rates'...that 'help' will not last long.

BTW, I think the Fed is absolutely doing the right thing and I hope they continue 'normalizing' rates for some time. But I suspect that if the markets keep falling too much longer - they will reverse their recent policy.

 

[S.J.]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

Wall Street reacts to rumors and comments. Every time they appear to be making progress, the market goes up. If one of them threatens another tariff, it goes down. When they finally do reach an agreement the bull will reappear (and I'll make a whole bunch of money. heh heh).

No it won't unless the Fed co-operates.

The Fed runs the equity markets....they have since at least 2009.

The China trade problems affect only a small portion of the economy. Interest rates effect almost the entire economy in 2018/19.

BTW - there is NO WAY Trump will get huge concessions from China, IMO. What will probably happen is he will realize that his trade war is hurting his re-election chances. So he will get some simple agreement with the Chinese on something small, declare victory and call off his tariffs.
And yes, that would help the markets.

But if the Fed does not stop 'normalizing' rates'...that 'help' will not last long.

BTW, I think the Fed is absolutely doing the right thing and I hope they continue 'normalizing' rates for some time. But I suspect that if the markets keep falling too much longer - they will reverse their recent policy.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, huh?

 

[McRocket]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

Wall Street reacts to rumors and comments. Every time they appear to be making progress, the market goes up. If one of them threatens another tariff, it goes down. When they finally do reach an agreement the bull will reappear (and I'll make a whole bunch of money. heh heh).

No it won't unless the Fed co-operates.

The Fed runs the equity markets....they have since at least 2009.

The China trade problems affect only a small portion of the economy. Interest rates effect almost the entire economy in 2018/19.

BTW - there is NO WAY Trump will get huge concessions from China, IMO. What will probably happen is he will realize that his trade war is hurting his re-election chances. So he will get some simple agreement with the Chinese on something small, declare victory and call off his tariffs.
And yes, that would help the markets.

But if the Fed does not stop 'normalizing' rates'...that 'help' will not last long.

BTW, I think the Fed is absolutely doing the right thing and I hope they continue 'normalizing' rates for some time. But I suspect that if the markets keep falling too much longer - they will reverse their recent policy.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, huh?

Yup...as always.

 

[william the wie]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

Wall Street reacts to rumors and comments. Every time they appear to be making progress, the market goes up. If one of them threatens another tariff, it goes down. When they finally do reach an agreement the bull will reappear (and I'll make a whole bunch of money. heh heh).

No it won't unless the Fed co-operates.

The Fed runs the equity markets....they have since at least 2009.

The China trade problems affect only a small portion of the economy. Interest rates effect almost the entire economy in 2018/19.

BTW - there is NO WAY Trump will get huge concessions from China, IMO. What will probably happen is he will realize that his trade war is hurting his re-election chances. So he will get some simple agreement with the Chinese on something small, declare victory and call off his tariffs.
And yes, that would help the markets.

But if the Fed does not stop 'normalizing' rates'...that 'help' will not last long.

BTW, I think the Fed is absolutely doing the right thing and I hope they continue 'normalizing' rates for some time. But I suspect that if the markets keep falling too much longer - they will reverse their recent policy.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, huh?

There are three things that could derail the GDP, employment and wage growth AND that would lead to a non- improving stock market:

China tanks.

hard Brexit.

The Blue state default wave could happen soonish.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Depends on trade talks.

/—-/ Moving in the right direction: China agrees to 'reduce and remove' tariffs on US cars: Trump

You know, I don't really believe much of what Trump says when he comes out of these meetings. He tells the people what he thinks they want to hear, rather than what really happened.

Matter of fact, I started to really not trust anything he says when he came back from meeting with N. Korea, and told all of us that he had gotten N. Korea to denuclearize. Unfortunately, nothing along those lines has happened.

I'll believe that he got something done with China when I see the economy reacting in a positive way. Until then? I'm taking whatever he says with a grain of salt (maybe even a whole shaker full).

Donald Trump tells world it can ‘sleep well’ after North Korea summit

Returning to the White House around dawn after a nearly 24-hour journey from the summit site in Singapore, the president said the world could “sleep well” as a result of his agreement with North Korea’s leader.


“There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea,” Mr. Trump tweeted, adding that “everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office.”


The joint summit statement signed by the two leaders committed North Korea to the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” but doesn’t specify a process or timetable.


Democrats said the president was spiking the football in celebration before crossing the goal line, some even comparing it with President George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” banner during the Iraq war, years before fighting ended.