i don't think it will change votes on the right. they really don't care what newt's done. they just want the most vicious voice possible. newt does good vicious. he was the only person in politics about whom tip o'neil ever used the word "hate". and it won't have any influence on people on the left. dems would chew their own arms off before they'd vote for newt, anyway.
will it influence the middle? i think it will. certainly, the fact that newt has a 60% unfavorable rating doesn't bode well for him.
I think a Newt nomination will cost votes on the right. It certainly will cost my vote. I think a lot of people on the right like me will just stay home like we did in 2008 and 2006. Since our only choices are Newt vs. Obama or Romney vs. Obama, I already plan on staying home.
i always vote. i figure i lose my right to complain if i don't. but i do think you're right. if newt's elected, a lot of people will stay home.
but there will be others who come out for him, i think. they'll be rarin to go and cheering him on. and the nastier he gets, the happier they'll be.