- Jun 6, 2007
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Many Americans think President Donald Trump "on trade" will engage in an all out toe-to-toe slug fest with China with blood all over the place where it doesn't stop until one side is left standing that approach is not the best course for America because the abundance of blood will be an abundance of Americans lives that will be thrown into disarray by the trade war. Prudence calls for restraint to avoid this harm to a lot of Americans. President Trump here needs to forego his typical character about winning and be prepared to pivot to pursuing Congressional action where Congress gives the President the tools and prepares the country for trade conflict where the number of Americans hurt is dramatically diminished than if President Trumps embarks on a full blown trade war now! It is pretty clear that China is going to play games and is digging in for a trade war they are not going to give the majority of the American people that want the unjust trade situation with China where there is giant trade deficits remedied with guarantees from the China government it will be permanently lowered into the fair range! So the only question that remains is what will the White House do?
Veering off to this wise path that spares a lot of Americans serious hurt calls for the White House to make the following adjustments. After the White House imposes its twenty-five percent tariffs on fifty billion dollars of imports from China as the Chinese government has said they will impose equal tariffs on imports from the United States now the President Trump White House has said they will retaliate in part because the Chinese government is not correcting the unfairness fair enough the White House is right to send the message here to Beijing that this is a serious matter and this serious wrong to the American people is not going to be tolerated. At this point the White House needs to pivot and not square the Battleship and fire all the big guns it needs to not drive forward into a full blown trade war. It needs to scale back its plans it needs to only impose its planned ten percent tariffs on only a hundred billion dollars of exports from China, twenty percent of China's exports to the U.S.. Almost certainly the Chinese government will carry through on their threat and impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports to China. When that happens the White House has to show its prudent character and restrain from further escalation. The White House needs to then turn to Congress for the tools to solve this humongous trade deficit problem with China in a manner that as much as possible diminishes harm on American workers and businesses. The specifics of the legislation are not the most critical in so far as what is most critical is that the legislation create the power to solve the problem not only through tariffs but also through the power to impose export quotas on the wrongdoer country, this mitigates harm on U.S. consumers. The legislation should give the U.S. body charged with solving this problem the power to restrict investment in the U.S. from the wrongdoer country and force the wrongdoer country to sell investments in the U.S.. Ideally the legislation should not rest this power in the Executive Branch of government as America's polarized political landscape generally produces either pro-labor Presidents or pro-big business Presidents which would result in big swings in this key American trade policy; rather, this power should rest in a commission like the SEC or FTC where the provisions in the legislation restrain the commission's power like defining a trade deficit problem with a country where the trade deficit is greater than twenty percent of U.S. exports to that country and at least ten billion dollars per year and it is at this level for at least three consecutive years. The commission could be given the power to mitigate the harm from anticipated trade wars like in the instant case buying the crops of farmers punished by China with shunning in regards to purchasing their farm products.
By freezing the tariffs after the White House imposes the next ten percent round, the White House not only friendly sends the Chinese government the message this unfairness in the trade deficit will not stand it gives China the time and opportunity to reduce it or prepare for it to be unilaterally reduced by the U.S. where the harm to the Chinese people will be mitigated. Of even more importance it gives American businesses and for that matter other businesses responsible for exporting from China into the U.S. time and opportunity to find other options for these exports where they, U.S. workers and U.S. consumers will not be hurt or the hurt will be mitigated. It is understood that this legislation is calling for action that is probably something that the WTO will say is a trade violation and this legislation will need to direct the executive branch of government to renegotiate trade agreements and pacts and possibly withdrawal from such. America's political class excluding here most Democrats because I think they already get it needs to recognize that the American people's views on trade have changed President Trumps goals the majority of the American people agree with albeit they want and expect him to be more strategic and try to avoid collateral damage but the days are over where the American people accept American politicians telling them there will be a world with open and free trade where this foreign country makes and sends X product into the global market and America doesn't but we make and send Y product into the global market and everyone does great and it is all fair. Congress needs to pass legislation creating a new global trade model. Resisters need to recognize the public in many places throughout the world want this new global trade model! Take for instance the country of Italy its stand out political turmoil in large part is driven by dissatisfaction of young people in Italy who experience high levels of unemployment caused by the dysfunction of the prevailing globalization model which causes the devastation and elimination of domestic manufacturing industries which create middle class jobs. In the public debate on trade in America those quite a few number of people on the status quo side who make statements like significant trade deficits don't matter or that significant trade deficits are good need to have a profound conversion experience and drop that view. Because to this writer and most Americans such a view is insulting what do you think we are idiots if the wrongdoing country remedied the trading deficit and bought more goods and services from our country that would create more jobs and/or wage increases for us and our neighbors this is the view that common sense and truth calls for!
Veering off to this wise path that spares a lot of Americans serious hurt calls for the White House to make the following adjustments. After the White House imposes its twenty-five percent tariffs on fifty billion dollars of imports from China as the Chinese government has said they will impose equal tariffs on imports from the United States now the President Trump White House has said they will retaliate in part because the Chinese government is not correcting the unfairness fair enough the White House is right to send the message here to Beijing that this is a serious matter and this serious wrong to the American people is not going to be tolerated. At this point the White House needs to pivot and not square the Battleship and fire all the big guns it needs to not drive forward into a full blown trade war. It needs to scale back its plans it needs to only impose its planned ten percent tariffs on only a hundred billion dollars of exports from China, twenty percent of China's exports to the U.S.. Almost certainly the Chinese government will carry through on their threat and impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports to China. When that happens the White House has to show its prudent character and restrain from further escalation. The White House needs to then turn to Congress for the tools to solve this humongous trade deficit problem with China in a manner that as much as possible diminishes harm on American workers and businesses. The specifics of the legislation are not the most critical in so far as what is most critical is that the legislation create the power to solve the problem not only through tariffs but also through the power to impose export quotas on the wrongdoer country, this mitigates harm on U.S. consumers. The legislation should give the U.S. body charged with solving this problem the power to restrict investment in the U.S. from the wrongdoer country and force the wrongdoer country to sell investments in the U.S.. Ideally the legislation should not rest this power in the Executive Branch of government as America's polarized political landscape generally produces either pro-labor Presidents or pro-big business Presidents which would result in big swings in this key American trade policy; rather, this power should rest in a commission like the SEC or FTC where the provisions in the legislation restrain the commission's power like defining a trade deficit problem with a country where the trade deficit is greater than twenty percent of U.S. exports to that country and at least ten billion dollars per year and it is at this level for at least three consecutive years. The commission could be given the power to mitigate the harm from anticipated trade wars like in the instant case buying the crops of farmers punished by China with shunning in regards to purchasing their farm products.
By freezing the tariffs after the White House imposes the next ten percent round, the White House not only friendly sends the Chinese government the message this unfairness in the trade deficit will not stand it gives China the time and opportunity to reduce it or prepare for it to be unilaterally reduced by the U.S. where the harm to the Chinese people will be mitigated. Of even more importance it gives American businesses and for that matter other businesses responsible for exporting from China into the U.S. time and opportunity to find other options for these exports where they, U.S. workers and U.S. consumers will not be hurt or the hurt will be mitigated. It is understood that this legislation is calling for action that is probably something that the WTO will say is a trade violation and this legislation will need to direct the executive branch of government to renegotiate trade agreements and pacts and possibly withdrawal from such. America's political class excluding here most Democrats because I think they already get it needs to recognize that the American people's views on trade have changed President Trumps goals the majority of the American people agree with albeit they want and expect him to be more strategic and try to avoid collateral damage but the days are over where the American people accept American politicians telling them there will be a world with open and free trade where this foreign country makes and sends X product into the global market and America doesn't but we make and send Y product into the global market and everyone does great and it is all fair. Congress needs to pass legislation creating a new global trade model. Resisters need to recognize the public in many places throughout the world want this new global trade model! Take for instance the country of Italy its stand out political turmoil in large part is driven by dissatisfaction of young people in Italy who experience high levels of unemployment caused by the dysfunction of the prevailing globalization model which causes the devastation and elimination of domestic manufacturing industries which create middle class jobs. In the public debate on trade in America those quite a few number of people on the status quo side who make statements like significant trade deficits don't matter or that significant trade deficits are good need to have a profound conversion experience and drop that view. Because to this writer and most Americans such a view is insulting what do you think we are idiots if the wrongdoing country remedied the trading deficit and bought more goods and services from our country that would create more jobs and/or wage increases for us and our neighbors this is the view that common sense and truth calls for!
