william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
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While some analysts concentrate on one thing, others concentrate on differing things and the main problem is nearly zero economic transparency in China:
The shadow banking system literally survives by not getting caught by the secret police so no hard data exists. The consensus guess as to debt load is four GDPs according to MarketWatch but which GDP are they referring to?
There are two widely differing GDPs in question: the official calculated one and the PPP which is roughly twice as large as the official GDP. And of course there is a shadow economy as well.
Then there are the large number of official non-persons. (If there is a consensus on how many non-persons there are I haven't seen it.)
So, basically the trade war strategies are SWAGs based on SWAGs. That's comforting. So, let the games begin.
The shadow banking system literally survives by not getting caught by the secret police so no hard data exists. The consensus guess as to debt load is four GDPs according to MarketWatch but which GDP are they referring to?
There are two widely differing GDPs in question: the official calculated one and the PPP which is roughly twice as large as the official GDP. And of course there is a shadow economy as well.
Then there are the large number of official non-persons. (If there is a consensus on how many non-persons there are I haven't seen it.)
So, basically the trade war strategies are SWAGs based on SWAGs. That's comforting. So, let the games begin.
