Ohio.... is... Lost to Democrats

[NYcarbineer]

Don't shoot the messenger...I'm trying to be as gentle as possible....


I recommend Democrats gathering together, having a group hug, then reading this and having a good sniveling session... together


-------------------------- (check the link)


Ohio.... 2010 election results


The defeat of Gov. Ted Strickland by John Kasich, a Republican, was one of the most painful outcomes of the election for Democrats and President Obama, who campaigned repeatedly in Ohio, as did Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and former President Bill Clinton.

The ouster of 5 of the 10 Democrats serving in Ohio’s 18-member Congressional delegation also caused Democrats plenty of heartburn.

But a string of other local Republican victories in the state could hurt Democrats for years to come.

Republicans defeated Democrats in all major races for statewide office, putting them in control of the once-a-decade redrawing of Ohio’s legislative and Congressional districts, scheduled to begin next year.

The five member board that draws Ohio’s district boundaries — with the clout to gerrymander them to favor the party in power — includes the governor, secretary of state, auditor, and a legislator from each party. Following Tuesday’s vote, four of the officeholders wielding that powerful pen will be Republicans.

Ohio - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times

There's an amendment on the Ohio ballot to end that.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Ohio_Redistricting_Amendment,_Issue_2_(2012)

 

[Sallow]

I'm beginning to think Romney can win without Ohio. I know the conventional wisdom says he can't. But from what i'm seeing, it's looking very possible.

It's basically possible if Romney takes all the battleground states.

He won't.

 

[Inthemiddle]

I'm beginning to think Romney can win without Ohio. I know the conventional wisdom says he can't. But from what i'm seeing, it's looking very possible.

It's basically possible if Romney takes all the battleground states.

He won't.

He's going to take most of them because most of them aren't truly tossups. Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Arizona are all states that are historically close in the polls but almost always go red. Romney will take all of these. Wisconsin is one of the few states that is a true historical tossup. But I personally am calling them to go in favor of their home town boy and go red. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are like the first group, except they consistently go blue in the end. The only true tossups at this point are Ohio, Colorado, and maaaybe Nevada.

 

[longknife]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Because the polls and Lame Street Media are doing absolutely everything they can to support Barry Hussein's desperate plea for "Four More".

 

[longknife]

Gerrymandering is a time honored system of fixing elections.

Ohio won't be special if it happens there.

Most of this nation has been gerrymandered by both parties in such a way that one party or the other has dominance over congressional districts.

Welcome to California...

Except California did something about it.

We Draw the Lines

Well, the results of the commission's efforts can be found here:

California's congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

With this:

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission certified final district maps on August 15, 2011, which will take effect with the 2012 election.[5] The new districts are described as more "purple" than "red" or "blue" - that is, more mixed in electoral composition compared to the mostly "safe" districts of the previous decade, where incumbents were almost guaranteed re-election. An interactive map comparing the old districts with the new ones is available via the Los Angeles Times.[6] The new maps could cost Republicans several congressional seats; Republicans are pondering whether to challenge the maps, possibly in court or via a referendum petition.[7]

And, when you look at the maps, they are just as convoluted as any other state!!

 

[AquaAthena]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Romney doesn't need OHIO to win if he takes CO and WI or New Hampshire and a few other states with few electoral votes...

 

[Inthemiddle]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Romney doesn't need OHIO to win if he takes CO and WI or New Hampshire and a few other states with few electoral votes...

New Hampshire is extremely unlikely to go red. But even if it did, it would only gain Romney the win by taking both Colorado and Nevada. Not likely to happen. Nevada is as likely to go red as Iowa is to go blue. Colorado alone is where the magic will be made for Romney.

 

[elvis]

This is a pretty bold thread considering the race is tied.

 

[GoneBezerk]

Romney can win without OhiO. PA most likely is going to Romney so that is cover for votes.

 

[AquaAthena]

This is a pretty bold thread considering the race is tied.

Not according to Gallup early this morning:

Saturday, October 27, 2012 Updated 04:00 AM ET

Likely voters: Romney 51%-----O. 46%

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

 

[Charles_Main]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Not one poll is using an accurate sample. Dems will not enjoy a plus 7 turn out Ratio in this Election. Yet that is what all the polls are using.

 

[AquaAthena]

This is a pretty bold thread considering the race is tied.

Not according to Gallup early this morning:

Saturday, October 27, 2012 Updated 04:00 AM ET

Likely voters: Romney 51%-----O. 46%

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

Also, non-English speaking Somalians not born in America are being bussed into polls and instructed to vote all areas in brown:

Is voter fraud being committed in Ohio? - Conservative News

 

[Inthemiddle]

Romney can win without OhiO. PA most likely is going to Romney so that is cover for votes.

No, PA is going blue. Wisconsin, however, will go red.

 

[AquaAthena]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Romney doesn't need OHIO to win if he takes CO and WI or New Hampshire and a few other states with few electoral votes...

New Hampshire is extremely unlikely to go red. But even if it did, it would only gain Romney the win by taking both Colorado and Nevada. Not likely to happen. Nevada is as likely to go red as Iowa is to go blue. Colorado alone is where the magic will be made for Romney.

According to Rasmussen today, the 27th, New Hampshire has Romney ahead:

New polling from Florida and Virginia shows Romney with a two-point advantage in both states. Romney’s also ahead by two in New Hampshire and up by four in Colorado. The president leads by two in Nevada. The candidates are tied in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Ras also has:

Saturday, October 27, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. See daily tracking history.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week

 

[JoeB131]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Romney doesn't need OHIO to win if he takes CO and WI or New Hampshire and a few other states with few electoral votes...

Except right now, he's not leading in ANY of those states.

Memo to Republicans- The Electoral College is NOT your friend. It severely rigs the game in favor of Democrats.

The States that Democrats have carried in the last five elections total up to 242 EV's.

States they've taken 4 of the last five elections make up another 15 (NH, NM and IA)

That just puts the Democrat 13 EV's short.

Ohio gets them over the hump. So would VA, FL, NC or the combination of NV and CO. And Dems have carried those states at least 2 or 3 times in the last five elections.

Romney has to win ALL of those to have any chance of winning.

He won't.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Not one poll is using an accurate sample. Dems will not enjoy a plus 7 turn out Ratio in this Election. Yet that is what all the polls are using.

Now, see, another conservative who can't tell the truth.

The CNN Oct 25th Ohio poll sampled 35% Democrats and 33% Republicans. +2 is not +7.

Perhaps much more importantly in that poll, the Obama won the Independents by 5 points.

 

[Inthemiddle]

According to Rasmussen today, the 27th, New Hampshire has Romney ahead:

By two points, which is as good as saying they are tied. Meanwhile this poll has Obama up by 8 points.

At this point, close polls are pretty useless. We need to start looking at more intangible factors that will contribute to states breaking one way or the other. That's why I've insisted that Wisconsin is going red, regardless of the minor lead Obama seems to have according to the polls.

New Hampshire is liberal leaning by nature, and they are already very familiar with Romney as the former Governor of Mass. Romney is unpopular in his own neighborhood. New Hampshire will break blue.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Not one poll shows Romney leading in Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Romney doesn't need OHIO to win if he takes CO and WI or New Hampshire and a few other states with few electoral votes...

Except right now, he's not leading in ANY of those states.

Memo to Republicans- The Electoral College is NOT your friend. It severely rigs the game in favor of Democrats.

The States that Democrats have carried in the last five elections total up to 242 EV's.

States they've taken 4 of the last five elections make up another 15 (NH, NM and IA)

That just puts the Democrat 13 EV's short.

Ohio gets them over the hump. So would VA, FL, NC or the combination of NV and CO. And Dems have carried those states at least 2 or 3 times in the last five elections.

Romney has to win ALL of those to have any chance of winning.

He won't.

Whoa there! You're much to quick to write Romney off. Look at the last three Presidential elections in Wisconsin. Gore and Kerry barely won with less than .5% of the vote, then Obama won with 14% of the vote. Now, Obama has a small 2 point lead. You know what that means? Disenfranchised supporters. Since 2008 the mood in Wisconsin has been away from Obama, and the recall election a few months ago shows that support in Wisconsin has trended in favor of the GOP. Don't put so much stock an a poll that returns results well within the margin of error. Take a look at the bigger picture.

 

[NYcarbineer]

An interesting bit of trivia for Rasmussen fans.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4 points.

Rasmussen's final 2008 Ohio poll? They had Obama and McCain tied.

 

[Moonglow]

all this polling and predictions is like trusting the farmers almanac to predict the next years weather.