New CBO Report Finds Up to 2.9 Million People Owe Their Jobs to the Recovery Act

[Jarhead]

you are forgetting something...the most important factor involved in the application of a stimulus...

We were in a recession.

There was a generous surplus of non perishable proiducts available. There was no need to build new equipment..there was already a surplus.....so for the shovel ready jobs, it did wonders for the distributers of tar, but did not help the manufacturers of tar. It was great for the sellers of heavy equipment but did not help the manufacuters of heavuy equipment.

of course it helped the manufacturers of heavy equipment! Heavy equipment doesn't last forever. Parts need to be maintained and replaced. Whole units need to be exchanged sooner....

As for money still in the economy...yes, of course it is...but it is not beiung spent as business owners are aware that the increase in demand was stimulus prompted and will likely dissipate...so to spend the money to increase production of goods that will likely be shelved again is not a smart business move.

Yes, it's still in the economy. OK, we agree on that. It didn't disappear. It's circulating in the economy, correct? Business owners have more access to capital. Individuals have more access to consumption and investment income. Capital projects have more access to money.

Remind me again how the enlarged size of the pie doesn't benefit the people inside the pie, which is really basic economics.

you are a smart guy...

A back hoe can sit for 3 years and not depreciate in value. They start the engine once every two weeks and all is good.

Tar does not depreciate at all.

Concrete does not depreciate when it is in the sand phase.

Nor does wood in a lumber yeard.

Brass? Thousands of years half life.

And I can go on.

And no...it is not circulating. That is the problem.

Here is the scnario...

Joe bought a back hoe from Jim 2 years ago.

Joe could not sell it retail becuase no one was digging due to the recession.

Stimulus has a new project slated in Joe's neighborhood.

He sells that backhoe to Frank who won the contract....Frank bought it with stimulus money.

Joe did not make money....he simply offset his losses of the last 2 years for not being able to sell it for the last two years.

Jim, on the otherhand made nothing on the project as he sold that back hoe 2 years earlier to Jim.

So Jim does not hire or make any money, Joe does not hire or make any money, Frnak hires a temproary employee and spends money he got from the government.

The project ends and Frank is back to where he was and he lays off the employee.

In the meantime, Jim sees nothing on the horizon so he still is not making new back hoes...Joe sees the same so he is not buying any back hoes...and Frank sees nothing on the horizon so he is saving the little money he made as he fears no business for a while.

Oh yeah...and the employee Frank hired? He is back on unemployment, so the little money he made is in his bank account.

No money is circulating.

 

[ShaklesOfBigGov]

New CBO Report Finds Up to 2.9 Million People Owe Their Jobs to the Recovery Act


A new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report estimates that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) increased the number of people employed by between 1.0 million and 2.9 million jobs as of June. [1]


In other words, between 1.0 million and 2.9 million people employed in June owed their jobs to the Recovery Act. This estimate, by Congress' non-partisan economic and budget analysts, is more comprehensive than the 550,000 jobs that ARRA recipients reported in July, CBO explains.


While the report focuses primarily on the second quarter of 2011, CBO also includes new projections of the Recovery Act's jobs impact through 2012. It finds that in the current quarter (the third quarter of 2011), there are 0.8 million to 2.5 million more people employed because of ARRA.
The CBO report indicates that ARRA succeeded in its primary goal of protecting the economy during the worst of the recession. As the economy recovers, ARRA's effects will continue to decrease. CBO estimates that ARRA's impact on employment peaked in the third quarter of 2010, when between 1.4 million and 3.6 million people owed their jobs to the Recovery Act.

Is this the same "CBO" that tried to convince the rest of us that Obamacare would actually save the Federal Government on Health Care costs? Please say it isn't so, I'm trying to hold it in and not laugh but it's getting very difficult to do so.

CBO ups health care cost projections
By JENNIFER HABERKORN | 5/11/10 3:34 PM EST
Updated: 5/12/10 8:22 AM EST

Congressional Budget Office estimates released Tuesday predict the health care overhaul will likely cost about $115 billion more in discretionary spending over ten years than the original cost projections.

CBO ups health care cost projections - Jennifer Haberkorn - POLITICO.com

CBO: Health Care Bill Will Cost $115 Billion More Than Previously Assessed
May 12, 2010 9:08am

The director of the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that the health care reform legislation would cost, over the next ten years, $115 billion more than previously thought, bringing the total cost to more than $1 trillion.

The revised figure is due to estimated costs to federal agencies to implement the new health care reform bill – such as administrative expenses for the Internal Revenue Services and the Department of Health and Human Services — and the costs for a "variety of grant and other program spending for which specified funding levels for one or more years are provided in the act."

CBO had originally estimated that the health care reform bill would result in a net reduction in federal deficits of $143 billion from 2010-2019; this revised number would eliminate most of that savings.

CBO: Health Care Bill Will Cost $115 Billion More Than Previously Assessed - ABC News

CBO Raises Estimated Cost of Health Care Reforms As Employers, Health Plans Brace Costs Of Newly Effective & Impending Mandates
By Cynthia Marcotte Stamer

New analysis released Tuesday, May 11 by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office shows H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Public Law 111-148 (Health Care Reform Law) passed in March will cost $115 Billion more than originally estimated in the CBO’s March 15, 2010 discretionary spending analysis. News of the cost estimate increase comes as U.S. employer and other health plan sponsors, insurers and others are bracing for the first wave of new federal health plan mandates enacted as part of the Health Care Reform Law to take effect in September and a host of other federal mandates previously enacted that take effect in the 2009 and 2010 plan years.

CBO Raises Estimated Cost of Health Care Reforms As Employers, Health Plans Brace Costs Of Newly Effective & Impending Mandates «

 

[Jarhead]

I'm not confused.



And as I've pointed out, that doesn't matter. if more money is circulating and it is circulating more quickly and the result isn't inflation, then the economy grows.

Ahhhhh....but it is not circulating.

IUt is sitting in the pockets of the business owners.

Judging from economic growth over the past two years, it is not just sitting. You can't get economic growth if money doesn't circulate.

So please...recognize this...IT IS NOT CIRCULATING.

No, seriously, it is circulating. Perhaps not at the velocity we would like, but it's clearly circulating.

that is the issue.
So we spent a trillion dollars and did not get acceptable returns....and I think I made it clear why.
And I am sorry...but you cant tell me that Obamas team of economists did not know this...I mean...I learned this stuff in undergrad school.

But then again, his economists didnt recognoize how bad things were and seeing that was their job, they cant be very good!

 

[8537]

A back hoe can sit for 3 years and not depreciate in value. They start the engine once every two weeks and all is good.

but the fluids that go into the backhoe and the parts for that backhoe do not last forever.

And no...it is not circulating. That is the problem.

Jarhead, it's a pretty straightforward calculation: The money is circulating and we know this because GDP is not zero.

Here is the scnario...

Joe bought a back hoe from Jim 2 years ago.

Joe could not sell it retail becuase no one was digging due to the recession.

Stimulus has a new project slated in Joe's neighborhood.

He sells that backhoe to Frank who won the contract....Frank bought it with stimulus money.

right... so the money is circulating....

Joe did not make money....he simply offset his losses of the last 2 years for not being able to sell it for the last two years.

Jim, on the otherhand made nothing on the project as he sold that back hoe 2 years earlier to Jim.

If Joe offset previous losses with stimulus, Joe is better off with stimulus than without. Jim is better off b/c he sold the back hoe and put that money into circulation.

The project ends and Frank is back to where he was and he lays off the employee.

When the project ends, Frank's employees are wealthier than before the project, Frank's employees have enriched the people from whom they buy consumption goods etc...by circulating money.

 

[Jarhead]

A back hoe can sit for 3 years and not depreciate in value. They start the engine once every two weeks and all is good.

but the fluids that go into the backhoe and the parts for that backhoe do not last forever.

And no...it is not circulating. That is the problem.

Jarhead, it's a pretty straightforward calculation: The money is circulating and we know this because GDP is not zero.



right... so the money is circulating....

Joe did not make money....he simply offset his losses of the last 2 years for not being able to sell it for the last two years.

Jim, on the otherhand made nothing on the project as he sold that back hoe 2 years earlier to Jim.

If Joe offset previous losses with stimulus, Joe is better off with stimulus than without. Jim is better off b/c he sold the back hoe and put that money into circulation.

The project ends and Frank is back to where he was and he lays off the employee.

When the project ends, Frank's employees are wealthier than before the project, Frank's employees have enriched the people from whom they buy consumption goods etc...by circulating money.

fluids are a surplus item...but really irrelevant to the topic.

When you are offsetting losses from an earlier tyime, you are not making money...you are not really better off as you have outstanding debt...and yes...the cash trickles down....but ends at one that has no debt...and that person holds it.

Usually that is about three positions down the line....but can be as many as 6 or 7.

The manufacturer of the backho sold it 2 years ago...so he is not at all affected.

The employee was making 500 a week on unemployment..then Frank poaid him 500 a week of tax payer money...and then back on unempl;oyment at 500 a week of tax payer money.

Nothing gained in terms of money circulating.

Bear in mind...a recession usually starts to show growth after 6 to 18 months.

A stimulus gives business owners reason to toss normal forecasting aside and instead, sit and watch what happens.

So whatever income they have, they spend as little of it as they can.

Andf that is what is happening.

You aslked that I answer the question. Obviopusly we have two different views of what is happening. AM I right? I think I am.

Are you? You think you are.

But hey...that is what debate is about...but this debate is old. There will never be any proof of who is right....they are still arguing over the nedw deal.

So on another note....how was your summer? Sad its over. Best time of the year for my beautiful wife and myself.

 

[Oddball]

But hey...that is what debate is about...but this debate is old. There will never be any proof of who is right....they are still arguing over the nedw deal.

And that's what the social engineers and economic alchemists count on to be able to claim that they're right, no matter what happens.

Economy doesn't recover or gets worse, it's claimed as proof they didn't do enough soon enough...Should economic conditions improve, they do the touchdown dance and claim all the credit.

 

[8537]

So on another note....how was your summer? Sad its over. Best time of the year for my beautiful wife and myself.

It was fantastic, and I hope yours was the same. Got some great time away in some new places, spent time on my bike and in the woods, and had a decent summer of business.

Oh, and my wife is still talking to me!

Did you get any problems from Hurricane Irene?

 

[Skull Pilot]

Gee they couldn't get a more accurate tally than "between one and 3 million"?

I'll bet it was closer to 1 million so basically each of those jobs cost us about 800,000 dollars each. That's not such a great deal you know.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

I thought it was more like 5 gazillion!

 

[Jarhead]

So on another note....how was your summer? Sad its over. Best time of the year for my beautiful wife and myself.

It was fantastic, and I hope yours was the same. Got some great time away in some new places, spent time on my bike and in the woods, and had a decent summer of business.

Oh, and my wife is still talking to me!

Did you get any problems from Hurricane Irene?

Could have been worse. We were mandatory evacuated but I needed to stay around...lots of seniors in my community....and my wife insisted on staying as well...Spent much of the time at the firehouse playing cards waiting for a call for help...while my wife stayed at the house updating me on the flood waters....they never reached our door....lost power for about 8 hours......spent the afternoon walking the streets knocking on doors....but all were OK that stuck around.
Had to cut up only one tree that was blocking the main road into town....
So all in all....was nothing mnore than an event
Thanks for asking!

 

[BDBoop]

If we didn't have the depression we were headed for, then this is most certainly a recovery.

Your job creators are ever-so-grateful to be back up and in such great shape. I'm sure just any fucking year now they'll actually create those jobs.

 

[Oddball]

I thought it was more like 5 gazillion!

I heard it was a bazillion, with a squillion "saved"!

 

[Conservative]

Is this the same "CBO" that tried to convince the rest of us that Obamacare would actually save the Federal Government on Health Care costs? Please say it isn't so, I'm trying to hold it in and not laugh but it's getting very difficult to do so.

Like I said earlier... If the CBO gets garbage numbers, they provide garbage numbers. Doesn't matter if the garbage comes from the GOP or the Dems. Garbage, is garbage.

 

[Conservative]

If we didn't have the depression we were headed for, then this is most certainly a recovery.

Your job creators are ever-so-grateful to be back up and in such great shape. I'm sure just any fucking year now they'll actually create those jobs.

The implication of your statement is that jobs have not been created during this economic crisis.

We agree. The stimulus did not create all the claimed jobs.

 

[Jarhead]

If we didn't have the depression we were headed for, then this is most certainly a recovery.

Your job creators are ever-so-grateful to be back up and in such great shape. I'm sure just any fucking year now they'll actually create those jobs.

Depression?

Do you know what a depression results in?

I did not see the markets tanking to near 0.

To the contrary, the markets fared well....well before the stimulus.

What makes you think we were headed to a depression?

During the great depression, people were starving to death....wearing sacks as clothes.

Now, Our poorest of the poor have TV's, refrigerators, cars and cell phones.

I think those that survived the depression would slap you top side yo head if they heard you comapare what we had to what they endured.