According to the Philly Fed, regarding job reports, what the White House has been reporting and what is reality are two different things.
No chance they're putting out misinformation, is there?
The first red flags emerged in the summer of 2022: that's when the Biden Labor Department started well and truly rigging the labor market data.
Regular readers may recall that it was back in July of 2022, when we first warned that something had "snapped" in the labor market: that's when a striking discrepancy emerged between the number of US Payrolls (as measured by the BLS' Establishment Survey, a far more crude and imprecise, yet much more market-moving data series), and the number of actual Employed Workers (as measured by the BLS' far more accurate Household Survey) . As we showed then, after the two series had tracked each other tick for tick for years, a wide gap opened in March 2022 which quickly grew to 1.5 million jobs in just 3 months...
... one which has since exploded to a whopping 5 million "employed workers" that apparently do not exist.
________________________
Well, to make some more sense of the data, we went through the Early Benchmark state-level data excel spreadsheet provided by the Philly Fed (link), and simply added across the various states to obtain aggregate, country-level data so that we could compare the far more accurate QCEW data with what the BLS had been peddling for the past year.
The result was - again - shocking, and as shown in the chart below, a little over a year after we, or rather the Philly Fed, found that the BLS had overstated payrolls in 2022 by 1.1 million, here we go again, only this time the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024). It's truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy.
___________________________
It also means that far from the stellar 230K average monthly increase in payrolls in 2023, which the White House would spin time and again as direct evidence of the benefits of Bidenomics, the true average monthly payroll increase in 2023 was only 130K! The full monthly change in payrolls as originally reported by the BLS (in green) and the actual monthly number, as per the QCEW (in red) is shown below.
___________________________
Putting it all together, we now know - as the Philly Fed reported first - that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are "missing" when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS' woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls "data", and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.
Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jobs per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs.
Which is also why nobody in the mainstream media - which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state - will ever mention this report.
As such, we urge all readers to read Philly Fed analysis (link here) and to analyze the excel data (link here) at their own leisure, because in a fascist state, the media no longer works for the people.
www.zerohedge.com
No chance they're putting out misinformation, is there?
The first red flags emerged in the summer of 2022: that's when the Biden Labor Department started well and truly rigging the labor market data.
Regular readers may recall that it was back in July of 2022, when we first warned that something had "snapped" in the labor market: that's when a striking discrepancy emerged between the number of US Payrolls (as measured by the BLS' Establishment Survey, a far more crude and imprecise, yet much more market-moving data series), and the number of actual Employed Workers (as measured by the BLS' far more accurate Household Survey) . As we showed then, after the two series had tracked each other tick for tick for years, a wide gap opened in March 2022 which quickly grew to 1.5 million jobs in just 3 months...
... one which has since exploded to a whopping 5 million "employed workers" that apparently do not exist.
________________________
Well, to make some more sense of the data, we went through the Early Benchmark state-level data excel spreadsheet provided by the Philly Fed (link), and simply added across the various states to obtain aggregate, country-level data so that we could compare the far more accurate QCEW data with what the BLS had been peddling for the past year.
The result was - again - shocking, and as shown in the chart below, a little over a year after we, or rather the Philly Fed, found that the BLS had overstated payrolls in 2022 by 1.1 million, here we go again, only this time the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024). It's truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy.
___________________________
It also means that far from the stellar 230K average monthly increase in payrolls in 2023, which the White House would spin time and again as direct evidence of the benefits of Bidenomics, the true average monthly payroll increase in 2023 was only 130K! The full monthly change in payrolls as originally reported by the BLS (in green) and the actual monthly number, as per the QCEW (in red) is shown below.
___________________________
Putting it all together, we now know - as the Philly Fed reported first - that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are "missing" when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS' woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls "data", and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.
Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jobs per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs.
Which is also why nobody in the mainstream media - which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state - will ever mention this report.
As such, we urge all readers to read Philly Fed analysis (link here) and to analyze the excel data (link here) at their own leisure, because in a fascist state, the media no longer works for the people.
Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
