Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[jillian]

Yes. You are missing the fact that EVERY other pollster got it grossly wrong and this guy was almost perfect.

Rassmusen and it's ilk should go out of business. They are either liars or stupid. Anyone who trusts them in the future is a damned fool.

Thanks and fair enough but that is my question -- did he get it perfect as several have said here and several in the media have said or - as you say and I agree -- almost perfect (which i did too - i made apick on florida but for romney so that almost surely will prove wrong). THAT is the question. And there is a big difference between perfect and almost perfect (which is just another way for saying imperfect).

Although the copmarison to the pollsters is apples to oranges and silver would be the first one to tell you he is not a pollster. My guess is that he probably would even say that a pollster who said it was +1 romney (as I think rassmussen did) with a 3.5 MOE didnt get it wrong (assuming obama ended up winnig within the MOE as i think he did for most polls)

Lets just get a few terms down Nate Silver, Pollster, and Real Clear aren't pollsters. They construct prediction models using many polls as data. Both Nate and Pollster, and a handful of lesser known analysts correctly predicted 51 out of 51 results. Than you had the analysts like Real Clear Politics who miscalled Florida. On the other extreme, you had unskewedpolls and analysts like Dick Morris and Karl Rove becoming a complete joke in their predictions.

Yes, Rassmussen and Gallup were among the worst poll organizations this go around. I can't say why Rassmussen was so terrible, but Gallup totally screwed up their LV algorithm, predicting that white turnout would be 78%, when it turned out to be 72%. Gallup also predicted that Republican turnout would exceed Democrats. Both of these organizations came in near the bottom of the list for accuracy.

rasmussen was horrible because they didn't survey cell phones (where a lot of people, especially younger people, now have their only phone contact; and he also decided that democrats were being oversampled even though that obviously wasn't the case.

Rasmussen miscalled SIX of TWELVE battleground states. A tie is automatically a miscall:

Ohio
Virginia
Florida
Iowa
Wisconsin
Colorado

But, Rasmussen nailed the margin in Pennsylvania, for Obama.

yep

 

[Statistikhengst]

Well, that was fun!!!

Who is this liability idiot, anyway???

liability is now IlarMeilyr. He drank the unskewed polls kool-aid, a whole lot of it.

Oy, Gewalt!!

Ilar, my sweet, innocent IlarMeilyr - say it isn't so, say it isn't so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Bob Dylan sobered up enough to predict obama in a landslide.

Bob Dylan predicts Obama 'in a landslide' - Yahoo! News

332-206 is indeed a landslide!!!

Good job, Bob Dylan!

the rw cat lady you quoted is now Tipsycatlover I believe. Just as hateful & averse to using sources as are 96% of eXtreme Righties here it seems.

Ahhhh, Tipsykatzenfotze, got it!!!

I have really enjoyed going through this thread, it was a blast!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Synthaholic - please never change your avi.

Thank you. Many milions of times over.

 

[Zander]

Nate who? Isn't that the guy who blew the World Cup?

FiveThirtyEight 8217 s World Cup Predictions FiveThirtyEight

 

[IlarMeilyr]

Statist: Liability, your superior in every way, used to be me. That is, I used to be Liability.

As for your necrothreadmancy, I am glad you enjoyed a trip down memory lane.

Do you recall when Dewey defeated Truman, too?

 

[Sarah G]

Nate who? Isn't that the guy who blew the World Cup?

FiveThirtyEight 8217 s World Cup Predictions FiveThirtyEight

He's the guy who got everything right in 2012. Take a look a the list of pollsters who failed and how miserably:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

 

[Statistikhengst]

Statist: Liability, your superior in every way, used to be me. That is, I used to be Liability.

As for your necrothreadmancy, I am glad you enjoyed a trip down memory lane.

Do you recall when Dewey defeated Truman, too?

I am enjoying your butthurt! Please continue!

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

 

[Zander]

Nate who? Isn't that the guy who blew the World Cup?

FiveThirtyEight 8217 s World Cup Predictions FiveThirtyEight

He's the guy who got everything right in 2012. Take a look a the list of pollsters who failed and how miserably:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Good for him. I think he's one smart sumbitch!

But what has he done lately? in 2014 he was pretty much average. His record at the world cup was simply awful.

that being said, prognostication is a tough way to make a living.....

 

[IlarMeilyr]

Statist: Liability, your superior in every way, used to be me. That is, I used to be Liability.

As for your necrothreadmancy, I am glad you enjoyed a trip down memory lane.

Do you recall when Dewey defeated Truman, too?

I am enjoying your butthurt! Please continue!

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

You would enjoy anything involving butt. If I were actually butthurt, you'd lap it up.

Still, your false claims have no power, child. I am not even remotely" butthurt."

But your powers with necrothreadmancy are impressive.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Statist: Liability, your superior in every way, used to be me. That is, I used to be Liability.

As for your necrothreadmancy, I am glad you enjoyed a trip down memory lane.

Do you recall when Dewey defeated Truman, too?

I am enjoying your butthurt! Please continue!

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

You would enjoy anything involving butt. If I were actually butthurt, you'd lap it up.

Still, your false claims have no power, child. I am not even remotely" butthurt."

But your powers with necrothreadmancy are impressive.

Ahh, what a world. what a world.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Actually, the economy is getting better albeit slowly. Having a Republican leading the charge wouldn't change anything. The economy will get better no matter who wins, although it's not going to be a strong recovery. If Romney is elected and gets exactly what he wants, then it is possible we could head back into a deep recession and tax revenues could fall off even more creating an even larger deficit.

One of the funniest things Romney has to tell us is that he is going to create 12 million jobs, as if government is going to create those jobs just because he is President. Apparently all of you who worship this man have not been paying attention.

Apparently you're too fucking stupid to understand him.

say, Rabbi... are you starting to get that sinking feeling that this dream of a Romney victory was just a bridge too far? Are you starting to imagine election night in your mind when the swing states all start falling for Obama and, along about nine or ten at night, you realize that it just ain't gonna happen for ya? The only good news for you in all of that is the knowledge that lots of democrats remember feeling exactly that same way. Suck it up. Life will go on in an Obama second term.

The opposite. I am choosing the champaigne for the victory party. I believe the swing states will all go for Romney. Obama is finished. The suit has been declared empty.
What are you going to do when it's called for Romney? Blame billionaire donors? Blame Diebold? Blame the racism of the American public?

Ahhhh, the swing states.

2012, election night:

Florida: Obama +0.88%
Ohio: Obama +2.97%
Virginia: Obama +3.87%
Colorado: Obama +5.36%
New Hampshire: Obama +5.58%
Iowa: Obama +5.81%
Nevada: Obama +6.68%



Oh, yeah, Romney got this one:

North Carolina: Romney +2.04%


Since PA, WI, MI and MN are not swing states, but I assume you are too stupid to realize this, they were considered battleground states ( ) by some useful idiots, but were never really battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania: Obama +5.38%
Wisconsin: Obama +6.94%
Minnesota: Obama +7.69%
Michigan: Obama 9.54%

12 big battlegrounds, Obama won 11 of them.

Yes, your predication was just totally gold. Just ask President Romney!!!!

 

[Synthaholic]

Actually, the economy is getting better albeit slowly. Having a Republican leading the charge wouldn't change anything. The economy will get better no matter who wins, although it's not going to be a strong recovery. If Romney is elected and gets exactly what he wants, then it is possible we could head back into a deep recession and tax revenues could fall off even more creating an even larger deficit.

One of the funniest things Romney has to tell us is that he is going to create 12 million jobs, as if government is going to create those jobs just because he is President. Apparently all of you who worship this man have not been paying attention.

Apparently you're too fucking stupid to understand him.

say, Rabbi... are you starting to get that sinking feeling that this dream of a Romney victory was just a bridge too far? Are you starting to imagine election night in your mind when the swing states all start falling for Obama and, along about nine or ten at night, you realize that it just ain't gonna happen for ya? The only good news for you in all of that is the knowledge that lots of democrats remember feeling exactly that same way. Suck it up. Life will go on in an Obama second term.

The opposite. I am choosing the champaigne for the victory party. I believe the swing states will all go for Romney. Obama is finished. The suit has been declared empty.
What are you going to do when it's called for Romney? Blame billionaire donors? Blame Diebold? Blame the racism of the American public?

Ahhhh, the swing states.

2012, election night:

Florida: Obama +0.88%
Ohio: Obama +2.97%
Virginia: Obama +3.87%
Colorado: Obama +5.36%
New Hampshire: Obama +5.58%
Iowa: Obama +5.81%
Nevada: Obama +6.68%



Oh, yeah, Romney got this one:

North Carolina: Romney +2.04%


Since PA, WI, MI and MN are not swing states, but I assume you are too stupid to realize this, they were considered battleground states ( ) by some useful idiots, but were never really battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania: Obama +5.38%
Wisconsin: Obama +6.94%
Minnesota: Obama +7.69%
Michigan: Obama 9.54%

12 big battlegrounds, Obama won 11 of them.

Yes, your predication was just totally gold. Just ask President Romney!!!!

Why do I get the feeling that The Rabbi has run away like a little bitch once more, never to be seen in this thread again?

 

[bripat9643]

Actually, the economy is getting better albeit slowly. Having a Republican leading the charge wouldn't change anything. The economy will get better no matter who wins, although it's not going to be a strong recovery. If Romney is elected and gets exactly what he wants, then it is possible we could head back into a deep recession and tax revenues could fall off even more creating an even larger deficit.

One of the funniest things Romney has to tell us is that he is going to create 12 million jobs, as if government is going to create those jobs just because he is President. Apparently all of you who worship this man have not been paying attention.

Apparently you're too fucking stupid to understand him.

say, Rabbi... are you starting to get that sinking feeling that this dream of a Romney victory was just a bridge too far? Are you starting to imagine election night in your mind when the swing states all start falling for Obama and, along about nine or ten at night, you realize that it just ain't gonna happen for ya? The only good news for you in all of that is the knowledge that lots of democrats remember feeling exactly that same way. Suck it up. Life will go on in an Obama second term.

The opposite. I am choosing the champaigne for the victory party. I believe the swing states will all go for Romney. Obama is finished. The suit has been declared empty.
What are you going to do when it's called for Romney? Blame billionaire donors? Blame Diebold? Blame the racism of the American public?

Ahhhh, the swing states.

2012, election night:

Florida: Obama +0.88%
Ohio: Obama +2.97%
Virginia: Obama +3.87%
Colorado: Obama +5.36%
New Hampshire: Obama +5.58%
Iowa: Obama +5.81%
Nevada: Obama +6.68%



Oh, yeah, Romney got this one:

North Carolina: Romney +2.04%


Since PA, WI, MI and MN are not swing states, but I assume you are too stupid to realize this, they were considered battleground states ( ) by some useful idiots, but were never really battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania: Obama +5.38%
Wisconsin: Obama +6.94%
Minnesota: Obama +7.69%
Michigan: Obama 9.54%

12 big battlegrounds, Obama won 11 of them.

Yes, your predication was just totally gold. Just ask President Romney!!!!

Why do I get the feeling that The Rabbi has run away like a little bitch once more, never to be seen in this thread again?

That's your modus operandi, not his. You even put people on ignore when they kick your ass one time to many.

 

[bripat9643]

Actually, the economy is getting better albeit slowly. Having a Republican leading the charge wouldn't change anything. The economy will get better no matter who wins, although it's not going to be a strong recovery. If Romney is elected and gets exactly what he wants, then it is possible we could head back into a deep recession and tax revenues could fall off even more creating an even larger deficit.

One of the funniest things Romney has to tell us is that he is going to create 12 million jobs, as if government is going to create those jobs just because he is President. Apparently all of you who worship this man have not been paying attention.

Apparently you're too fucking stupid to understand him.

say, Rabbi... are you starting to get that sinking feeling that this dream of a Romney victory was just a bridge too far? Are you starting to imagine election night in your mind when the swing states all start falling for Obama and, along about nine or ten at night, you realize that it just ain't gonna happen for ya? The only good news for you in all of that is the knowledge that lots of democrats remember feeling exactly that same way. Suck it up. Life will go on in an Obama second term.

The opposite. I am choosing the champaigne for the victory party. I believe the swing states will all go for Romney. Obama is finished. The suit has been declared empty.
What are you going to do when it's called for Romney? Blame billionaire donors? Blame Diebold? Blame the racism of the American public?

Ahhhh, the swing states.

2012, election night:

Florida: Obama +0.88%
Ohio: Obama +2.97%
Virginia: Obama +3.87%
Colorado: Obama +5.36%
New Hampshire: Obama +5.58%
Iowa: Obama +5.81%
Nevada: Obama +6.68%



Oh, yeah, Romney got this one:

North Carolina: Romney +2.04%


Since PA, WI, MI and MN are not swing states, but I assume you are too stupid to realize this, they were considered battleground states ( ) by some useful idiots, but were never really battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania: Obama +5.38%
Wisconsin: Obama +6.94%
Minnesota: Obama +7.69%
Michigan: Obama 9.54%

12 big battlegrounds, Obama won 11 of them.

Yes, your predication was just totally gold. Just ask President Romney!!!!

Hilary isn't black and nobody likes her.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Actually, the economy is getting better albeit slowly. Having a Republican leading the charge wouldn't change anything. The economy will get better no matter who wins, although it's not going to be a strong recovery. If Romney is elected and gets exactly what he wants, then it is possible we could head back into a deep recession and tax revenues could fall off even more creating an even larger deficit.

One of the funniest things Romney has to tell us is that he is going to create 12 million jobs, as if government is going to create those jobs just because he is President. Apparently all of you who worship this man have not been paying attention.

Apparently you're too fucking stupid to understand him.

say, Rabbi... are you starting to get that sinking feeling that this dream of a Romney victory was just a bridge too far? Are you starting to imagine election night in your mind when the swing states all start falling for Obama and, along about nine or ten at night, you realize that it just ain't gonna happen for ya? The only good news for you in all of that is the knowledge that lots of democrats remember feeling exactly that same way. Suck it up. Life will go on in an Obama second term.

The opposite. I am choosing the champaigne for the victory party. I believe the swing states will all go for Romney. Obama is finished. The suit has been declared empty.
What are you going to do when it's called for Romney? Blame billionaire donors? Blame Diebold? Blame the racism of the American public?

Ahhhh, the swing states.

2012, election night:

Florida: Obama +0.88%
Ohio: Obama +2.97%
Virginia: Obama +3.87%
Colorado: Obama +5.36%
New Hampshire: Obama +5.58%
Iowa: Obama +5.81%
Nevada: Obama +6.68%



Oh, yeah, Romney got this one:

North Carolina: Romney +2.04%


Since PA, WI, MI and MN are not swing states, but I assume you are too stupid to realize this, they were considered battleground states ( [emoji38]) by some useful idiots, but were never really battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania: Obama +5.38%
Wisconsin: Obama +6.94%
Minnesota: Obama +7.69%
Michigan: Obama 9.54%

12 big battlegrounds, Obama won 11 of them.

Yes, your predication was just totally gold. Just ask President Romney!!!!

Hilary isn't black and nobody likes her.

Good luck with that one!

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Old Rocks]

Actually, the economy is getting better albeit slowly. Having a Republican leading the charge wouldn't change anything. The economy will get better no matter who wins, although it's not going to be a strong recovery. If Romney is elected and gets exactly what he wants, then it is possible we could head back into a deep recession and tax revenues could fall off even more creating an even larger deficit.

One of the funniest things Romney has to tell us is that he is going to create 12 million jobs, as if government is going to create those jobs just because he is President. Apparently all of you who worship this man have not been paying attention.

Apparently you're too fucking stupid to understand him.

say, Rabbi... are you starting to get that sinking feeling that this dream of a Romney victory was just a bridge too far? Are you starting to imagine election night in your mind when the swing states all start falling for Obama and, along about nine or ten at night, you realize that it just ain't gonna happen for ya? The only good news for you in all of that is the knowledge that lots of democrats remember feeling exactly that same way. Suck it up. Life will go on in an Obama second term.

The opposite. I am choosing the champaigne for the victory party. I believe the swing states will all go for Romney. Obama is finished. The suit has been declared empty.
What are you going to do when it's called for Romney? Blame billionaire donors? Blame Diebold? Blame the racism of the American public?

Ahhhh, the swing states.

2012, election night:

Florida: Obama +0.88%
Ohio: Obama +2.97%
Virginia: Obama +3.87%
Colorado: Obama +5.36%
New Hampshire: Obama +5.58%
Iowa: Obama +5.81%
Nevada: Obama +6.68%



Oh, yeah, Romney got this one:

North Carolina: Romney +2.04%


Since PA, WI, MI and MN are not swing states, but I assume you are too stupid to realize this, they were considered battleground states ( ) by some useful idiots, but were never really battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania: Obama +5.38%
Wisconsin: Obama +6.94%
Minnesota: Obama +7.69%
Michigan: Obama 9.54%

12 big battlegrounds, Obama won 11 of them.

Yes, your predication was just totally gold. Just ask President Romney!!!!

Hilary isn't black and nobody likes her.

LOL. Continue to say that for the eight years of her Presidency.

 

[Old Rocks]

Statist: Liability, your superior in every way, used to be me. That is, I used to be Liability.

As for your necrothreadmancy, I am glad you enjoyed a trip down memory lane.

Do you recall when Dewey defeated Truman, too?

I am enjoying your butthurt! Please continue!

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

You would enjoy anything involving butt. If I were actually butthurt, you'd lap it up.

Still, your false claims have no power, child. I am not even remotely" butthurt."

But your powers with necrothreadmancy are impressive.

You silly asses made complete asses of yourselves prior to 6Nov12. You continue to do so.

 

[Sarah G]

Statist: Liability, your superior in every way, used to be me. That is, I used to be Liability.

As for your necrothreadmancy, I am glad you enjoyed a trip down memory lane.

Do you recall when Dewey defeated Truman, too?

I am enjoying your butthurt! Please continue!

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

You would enjoy anything involving butt. If I were actually butthurt, you'd lap it up.

Still, your false claims have no power, child. I am not even remotely" butthurt."

But your powers with necrothreadmancy are impressive.

You silly asses made complete asses of yourselves prior to 6Nov12. You continue to do so.

Nate did a perfect job in 2012. He'll be back in 2016 don't you worry.