Learning From History...or Not.

Discussion in 'History' started by PoliticalChic, Sep 17, 2012.

  1. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    1. "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
    -- Mark Twain


    2. One would think that the most brilliant of Presidents, Barack Hussein Obama, would have studied the result of turning Middle East governments over religious ideologues....
    ...a study of the result of same by Jimmy Carter is instructive.

    The United States pushed for liberalizing reforms in Iran...and the world was gifted with a murderous Islamofascist regime.....




    3. Dr. Abbas Milani is he Director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. His recent book is “The Shah,” is based on ten years studying the archives of the United States and of Britain. Compare the lessons from the Shah to the 'Arab Spring'...

    a. The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran has been compared in importance to the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. “The central problems of world affairs today spring from the Iranian Revolution much as those of the 20th century sprang from the Russian Revolution.” Book review: The Shah - WSJ.com





    4. During the 1953 through 1969, Eisenhower and Kennedy and Johnson pressured the Shah to engage in various reforms based on their fear of a popular uprising, as predicted by the CIA as “…just around the corner!” In mid-1958, “Tomorrow will be a revolution!” Of course, the CIA at that time was factually correct, but chronologically premature by some twenty years! In comparison, in 1978, the CIA was dismally incorrect: “…the Shah is here to stay! There will be no fundamental change…no group is powerful enough.”

    5. Due to the American pressure, the Shah launched a series of reforms, known as the White Revolution, in 1963. This included many American ideas for modernization, such as a) land reform, b) modernization of infrastructure including railroads, c) education, d) enfranchising women, e) urbanization, f) encouragement of a class of technocrats and competent bureaucrats, etc. tried (unsuccessfully) to enable Iran’s religious minorities—principally Baha’is, Jews, and Christians—to take the oath of office on a holy book of their own choosing.





    6. The conservative clergy viewed the White Revolution as an affront to Islam and a dangerous move toward Western modernity: Ayatollah Khomeini immediately denounced the proposed reforms, led the clerical opposition

    Strangely, the success of the White Revolution lead to new social tensions that helped create many of the problems the Shah had been trying to avoid. It produced a middle class, economically privileged, that formed the insurgents who demanded political reform later…just what the Shah had hoped to avoid.

    7. While the Shah enforced his autocratic regulations, the only one organization had the freedom to form clubs and groups and networks, was the clergy! Their clubs formed in mosques, in the schools where they taught the Koran, they trained in ‘summer camps for the pious.’ And what did the clergy preach? Revolution among the urban poor.

    8. Ayatollah Khomeini immediately denounced the proposed reforms, led the clerical opposition, and spent eight months under house arrest for his speeches against the Shah, and the reforms. His arrest, in 1963, provoked powerful urban protest, the so-called uprising of 15 Khordad 1342, which led to a large number of deaths—thousands according to the opposition, 400 according to more reliable sources. Boston Review — milani.php





    9. Khomeini and his allies in Iran actually reached out to the Americans, to whom he promised a) to hold the country together, calming the unrest, b) to keep the communists out, and c) to keep the oil flowing. That’s all Carter had to hear! Carter then intercedes with the Iranian military on behalf of Khomeini and in opposition to Bakhtiar, and that the US would not support any coup in favor of the Shah. In 1991, Bakhtiar was assassinated.

    10. Carter believed that Khomeini would support democracy, contrary to all that he had written while in exile. In over 110 interviews he gave in Paris in the three months prior to re-entering Iran, he never mentioned the rule of the ‘juriscouncil,’ the clerical guardianship, i.e., the regime in control currently. He promised that he would retire to a life of study, and “…leave all powers to the people.”



    So...is Obama foolish?

    ... ineducable?

    ...an ideologue?

    ....incompetent, a la Carter....and naive?



    There are far too many similarities between the actions, or inactions, of Carter and Obama not to expect the same results.
     
  2. martybegan
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    martybegan Gold Member

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    The one exception I take to this is that it ignores the will of the people during the transition between the regimes. In both the Iranian revolution and the current "Arab Spring" the will of the people was/is behind those wanting to take power, and at the same time implement their own form of control over said people.

    The current status of Iran, where there is a suppressed opposition movement, is the natural progression of a restrictive regime that once had overwhelming support of the populace, and is now surviving on use of force alone.

    To me we may have to let the Arab nations go into religous theocracy. They seem to want it, and really only living though it, and finding out it isnt all it is cracked up to be, may be the only way to eventually have them see the light of western secular democracy.
     
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  3. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    "...the one exception I take to this is that it ignores the will of the people during the transition..."

    Darned good point.

    While I didn't state it, I certainly don't deny it.



    Yes...building a bridge from the seventh century to modernity is difficult and bloody.

    My point is that American administrations should have known, anticipated, learned more than they did.

    And Carter gets more of a pass than the current one, since we saw what happened in 1979.



    The questions that I ended with, I had hoped, would open the dialogue as to whether Obama was ignorant of the past.....

    ....or produced exactly what he wished to.
     
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  4. Wry Catcher
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    Wry Catcher Platinum Member

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    The world today is much smaller then at any earlier time; information across the Continents is instantaneous and is one explanation for the events in the Muslim world this week. Any blame for these events - for those who first and always want to affix it - falls on the producers of the film and the internet providers who refused to self-censor themselves; on the leadership in Muslim Countries who actively and tacitly allow such outbursts - knowing anger expressed against the U.S. and Western Culture is far better (for them) than anger expressed against their government over unmet needs; on U.S. foreign policy and our addiction to oil which frames it.

    Leaders in Muslim Countries know that their personal safety and position relies on the palliate effect of religion. Religion is an opiate for the people and it creates a climate wherein authoritarianism is not only acceptable but desirable.
     
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  5. martybegan
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    martybegan Gold Member

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    So if I make any video critical of a group that has a propensity to violence, I am responsible for thier actions if they react poorly to it? Even if I dont force them to watch it?

    Blame for violence goes on those who perpetrate it, and partially on those who allow it to occur.

    I guess that means we need to ban any videos or statements critical of the KKK or Aryan nations, because they may become violent over it.
     
  6. rightwinger
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    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Provoking a crazy person when you know how he will react is foolhardy

    You may have a first amendment right to do so....but it doesn't mean you should
     
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  7. tjvh
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    tjvh Senior Member

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    We'll take your suggestion that we should appease them, and when we don't it will be all our fault. :lol:
     
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  8. tjvh
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    tjvh Senior Member

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    So now peaceful Muslims are crazy people... Will you Libs ever make up your minds?
     
  9. martybegan
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    martybegan Gold Member

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    Directly provoking a crazy person is one thing. It involves a direct confrontation with said person, and then directly antagonizing them into a given action.

    Making a movie that you dont have to watch is a provocation only in the minds of those provoked. Or are you saying any Muslim who responds poorly to this movie is crazy?
     
  10. Wry Catcher
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    Wry Catcher Platinum Member

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    Why must you default to hyperbole and eschew common sense? Do I need to explain that?
     

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