La nina may form later this year!

[ScienceRocks]

3.4 has dropped below .5c based on this daily data set. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[elektra]

pertty picture i must post

 

[elektra]

colored pictures are propaganda, cartoons really, a certain level of intelligence is fascinated with cartoons.

 

[longknife]

As El Niño fades, here comes La Niña

With full story @ As El Niño fades, here comes La Niña - ImaGeo

 

[Old Rocks]

Now to see how low the temps go in the La Nina.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The attached plot issued today by TAO shows the 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles. These indicate that the Nino 3.4 index could become neutral next week.

Per the following data NOAA's Nino 3.4 for the week centered on May 11 2016 drifted down to +0.6; which was confirmed by the first attached image from the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending May 15 2016; while the second attached image shows that the IOD remained neutral for the same period.


Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
06APR2016 27.1 1.3 28.8 1.4 28.9 1.3 29.3 0.9
13APR2016 25.6 0.1 28.6 1.2 29.1 1.3 29.3 0.8
20APR2016 24.7-0.6 28.0 0.6 28.9 1.1 29.4 0.8
27APR2016 24.7-0.3 27.7 0.4 28.7 0.8 29.5 0.9
04MAY2016 25.1 0.4 27.6 0.4 28.6 0.8 29.5 0.8
11MAY2016 24.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.4 0.6 29.4 0.6

The third & fourth images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively. These indicate that our current weak El Nino event might say above the +0.5 threshold for a few more weeks, or alternatively, could drop down into the neutral range as early as next week.

 

[ScienceRocks]

It likely will be neutral next mondays 5 day means

 

[ScienceRocks]

Growing wider now....

 

[ScienceRocks]

Text of CPC update of 5/23/16 that has Nino 3.4 down to Neutral at +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

 

[IanC]

I think La Nina conditions will follow the El Nino, as they have in the past.

The question is...how will the attribution be handled? The climate consensus said El Nino was only 10% responsible for rising temps. Will they claim the same amount for the coming La Nina? Or will they claim that the La Nina is only masking the ongoing warming? We shall see.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I think probably 75% of the warming the past 2 years was because of the ENSO + phase. We'll likely cool back down to around .70 to .75c for a neutral year after this event. A strong nina in 2017 could get us under .7c, but we will see.

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[ScienceRocks]

El Niño ends as tropical Pacific Ocean returns to neutral


The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler-than-average waters beneath the surface. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index have also returned to neutral levels. Outlooks suggest little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño.

International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

ENSO Wrap-Up

I'd say only a 75% chance of the warmest year on record since the nino has collapsed faster then the 1998 one. If we get a a decent nina by Oct = we'll probably fall below first.

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[ScienceRocks]

.1c at 3.4 this week.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

 

[Old Rocks]

I think La Nina conditions will follow the El Nino, as they have in the past.

The question is...how will the attribution be handled? The climate consensus said El Nino was only 10% responsible for rising temps. Will they claim the same amount for the coming La Nina? Or will they claim that the La Nina is only masking the ongoing warming? We shall see.

From Dr. Roy Spencer

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2016 is +0.71 deg. C, down slightly from the March value of +0.73 deg. C (click for full size version):

See how the average jumped up after 1998? Even the lows for the La Nina years were much higher than before. That is what I expect that we will see until the next strong El Nino once more raises the bar. And the denialists will scream after we come off the El Nino high that it is cooling, even though the average is once again higher than it has ever been. And the fools on this board will parrot the nonsense.

 

[Muhammed]

If only we could get more government spending on infrastructure, we could stop that nasty La Nina bitch.

IF only assholes like you would stop using our roads without paying your share...Think about that. Theft.

You have never built a road. And anyone who believes you did is a fool.

You come off as a typical wimpy obese vegan tranny fag living in Cartman's mother's basement with a bunch of captured hippies
from Colorado.

Who are you trying to fool?

 

[IanC]

I think La Nina conditions will follow the El Nino, as they have in the past.

The question is...how will the attribution be handled? The climate consensus said El Nino was only 10% responsible for rising temps. Will they claim the same amount for the coming La Nina? Or will they claim that the La Nina is only masking the ongoing warming? We shall see.

From Dr. Roy Spencer

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2016 is +0.71 deg. C, down slightly from the March value of +0.73 deg. C (click for full size version):

See how the average jumped up after 1998? Even the lows for the La Nina years were much higher than before. That is what I expect that we will see until the next strong El Nino once more raises the bar. And the denialists will scream after we come off the El Nino high that it is cooling, even though the average is once again higher than it has ever been. And the fools on this board will parrot the nonsense.

you are funny Old rocks! five years ago I was telling you that the pre-98 ElNino numbers looked like natural variation around an average, then a big spike for el Nino, then another stretch of natural variation around an average, albeit higher. as if the 98 El Nino bumped the thermostat.

you screeched that I was wrong, insisting that the warming was not only continuing but that the warming was also accelerating! now you have come full circle and are lecturing me on what I told you, five years ago. perhaps this latest El Nino will reset the thermostat a little higher, perhaps not. but I do know that goofs like you will always discount warming during an El Nino and totally attribute cooling to a La Nina.

 

[IanC]

Speaking of infrastructure... We need a north/south dam across the Pacific. Keep out those Chinese boat people. And all that Japanese plastic floating around. East for East and West for West. Big tourist attraction. Hotel in the middle of the Pacific. Think of the fishing.

Crick

Why do you have a creepy bald dude in sunglasses jerking off his penis in your avatar?

What kind of sick motherfucker are you?

That is just plain sick, dude.

Fuck off, you gross scumbag.

funny but a little mean. I think the creepy bald dude is actually Abraham