La nina may form later this year!

[ScienceRocks]

I say may, but looking at the cold pool moving eastward, well I'd give it a reasonable chance of occurring.

Will be interesting if we do get a nina to see where it bottoms out and if the nina is the warmest yet again.

 

[gipper]

If only we could get more government spending on infrastructure, we could stop that nasty La Nina bitch.

 

[Crick]

Speaking of infrastructure... We need a north/south dam across the Pacific. Keep out those Chinese boat people. And all that Japanese plastic floating around. East for East and West for West. Big tourist attraction. Hotel in the middle of the Pacific. Think of the fishing.

 

[ScienceRocks]

If only we could get more government spending on infrastructure, we could stop that nasty La Nina bitch.

IF only assholes like you would stop using our roads without paying your share...Think about that. Theft.

 

[jc456]

If only we could get more government spending on infrastructure, we could stop that nasty La Nina bitch.

IF only assholes like you would stop using our roads without paying your share...Think about that. Theft.

so matt, what is a fair share? Do you have a definition of that for us?

 

[Crick]

Long standing trucker complaint.

 

[gipper]

If only we could get more government spending on infrastructure, we could stop that nasty La Nina bitch.

IF only assholes like you would stop using our roads without paying your share...Think about that. Theft.

so matt, what is a fair share? Do you have a definition of that for us?

If I might be so bold, let me answer for Mattieboy.

His definition of "Fair Share," is whatever the political elites determine it to be.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Well, the means is neural on the CFS but a few enembles do get us to nina conditions later this year. My prediction based on the cold pool is that I have a cold bias more in line with possibly cold neural or maybe weak nina. We will see of course.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I now think some kind of nina is now likely....The reality of the cold pool makes no doubt about that, but we will have to see how the trade winds work out to push it to the surface.

 

[Billy_Bob]

THe LA Nina is already forming and will hit by june, as i have stated many times before.

Its going to be very cold in the US this next winter... and summer will be dry but cool over much of the US..

Source

Region 3-4 continues to plummet like a rock..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Well, the means is neural on the CFS but a few enembles do get us to nina conditions later this year. My prediction based on the cold pool is that I have a cold bias more in line with possibly cold neural or maybe weak nina. We will see of course.

This model has been shown to be in err. They made corrections to it this week and it has lowered the recent El Niño way below the 1997-98 event. Seems that someone needed it to be really big...

 

[Old Rocks]

Silly Billy you feckless liar, you have been predicting a La Nina since Jan 2015. And the El Nino shows up even on the UAH graph as larger than 1998. Do you want me to post your posts concerning this?

 

[ScienceRocks]

wow

 

[ScienceRocks]

Text of the CPC update of 4/11/16 that has Nino 3.4 down to +1.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

 

[FJO]

Could the constant under water volcanic eruptions in the Pacific Ocean have anything to do with the temperature of that ocean affecting global climate?

What? You dismiss volcanic eruptions in the Pacific Ocean? Might as well dismiss Hawaii.

And since Obama claims to have been born there, might as well.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Looks like I have to put mr.dumbass FJO on Ignore after I explain to him that a deccan trapps like volcanic basalt event wouldn't 1. stop and start like this at this magnitude(or any magnitude for that matter!) as the geological record shows most of them lasting thousands if not millions of years and, 2. we'd fucking see it as the ocean floor would glow red and be spotable for 2,000 miles above our planet!!!

Loserterians are truly the taliban of our Society! Laughable!

 

[FJO]

Looks like I have to put mr.dumbass FJO on Ignore after I explain to him that a deccan trapps like volcanic basalt event wouldn't 1. stop and start like this at this magnitude(or any magnitude for that matter!) as the geological record shows most of them lasting thousands if not millions of years and, 2. we'd fucking see it as the ocean floor would glow red and be spotable for 2,000 miles above our planet!!!

Loserterians are truly the taliban of our Society! Laughable!

What is "deccan trapps"?

The rest of your post: Would you re-post in in English? Please?

 

[Crick]

You could have just looked them up

Deccan Traps
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from The Deccan Traps)

The Deccan Traps shown as dark purple spot on the geologic map of India
The Deccan Traps are a large igneous province located on the Deccan Plateau of west-central India (between 17°–24°N, 73°–74°E) and one of the largest volcanic features on Earth. They consist of multiple layers of solidified flood basalt that together are more than 2,000 m (6,562 ft) thick, cover an area of 500,000 km2 (193,051 sq mi) and have a volume of 512,000 km3 (123,000 cu mi). Originally, it may have covered 1.5 million km2.[1]

 

[ScienceRocks]

El Niño declining; 50 per cent likelihood of La Niña for later in 2016



While the 2015–16 El Niño remains at weak to moderate levels, recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming in 2016 has increased to around 50%. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to La Niña WATCH.

Temperatures below the Pacific Ocean surface have declined since late 2015, with all but the top 50 metres now cooler than normal. At the sea surface, temperatures have cooled by over 1 °C since their peak, but remain warmer than average and still at El Niño levels. The Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds also show clear signs that El Niño is in decline. The SOI has recently risen to near-neutral levels, while trade winds are near normal. However some indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line, have shown only a limited shift away from El Niño patterns.

International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. By spring, five of the eight surveyed models suggest La Niña is likely, with three remaining neutral. ENSO forecasts made at this time of year tend to have lower accuracy than at other times, with a clearer picture to emerge over the coming months.


The ENSO Outlook is now at La Niña WATCH. While the current El Niño is expected to persist until late autumn or early winter, there are early signs that the chance of a La Niña developing by spring 2016 has increased.

The La Niña WATCH criteria have been met following expert assessment of the steady cooling in the surface and sub-surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean and updated model outlooks indicating increased likelihood of cooling to La Niña thresholds by spring 2016.

A La Niña WATCH means that there is approximately a 50% chance of a La Niña developing in 2016, which is about twice the normal likelihood.


ENSO Outlook – an alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

 

[ScienceRocks]

Latest CPC/IRI probabilistic forecast suggests there is a 70% chance of La Niña by Autumn 2016:

International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2016 April Quick Look