Election swinging to Trump

[Yousaidwhat]

Just think...in a few weeks when HRC is elected, the pressure of having to make stuff up about her and lie about him will be over

Oh, I think it will be going on for at least four years.

I can hardly wait for the all the slop we will be dealing with.

Our first black failure as president.

Proceeded by our first female failure.

Where is Sandra Fluke when you need her ?

Ask Candy to nudge her awake.

Fuonny !!!

You betcha!

 

[Mac1958]

From what I'm seeing, Trump and the party are actually doing the right thing - focusing on exploding Obamacare premiums.

If the press chooses to cover it (and that's a big "if"), some real damage could be done.
.

It's too late to save him

The whole thing really comes down to whether Democrats are going to be motivated to show up or not. Excitement for Hillary is very low. But then that was if you recall what happened in 2012. The polls that Romney had a shot were not wrong regarding who people would vote for if they show up. What they were wrong about was who would show up. In the end Obama got a far greater turnout than predicted. That's what happened.

Can Hillary get people to actually show up and vote against Trump? I wouldn't think so, but 2012 says maybe she can. We'll see.

I think that's a fair point.

I'd also agree that, more than any other election in my lifetime, if there has been distortion in polling by people who won't admit who they're voting for, this is it.

So yeah, we'll see.
.

 

[Pop23]

I'd sure like to see the demographic breakdown of some of these state polls. I've looked at a couple and can't find them. I've heard that some are sampling eight percent more women then in previous years. If true that skews the polls although I can't confirm.

Always a good question and a very reasonable request. Legitimate polls or poll reports often link the source of the poll even though it may take a few clicks to get there. In the case of the Florida Bloomberg report, clicking on the Bloomberg link in the RCP page takes you here: Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida

A link at the bottom of the page takes you here: http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf

I'd love to get even more Demo's but OK.

I found this interesting about the ABC polling methodology

"For landline respondents, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest male or youngest female at home. Cell-only respondents are screened for age eligibility (18+). Cell-only respondents are not offered compensation, but a reimbursement check is offered if use of minutes is raised as an objection. Cell sample respondents’ place of residence is checked and their Census region adjusted accordingly if necessary.".

That seems odd to me.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

From what I'm seeing, Trump and the party are actually doing the right thing - focusing on exploding Obamacare premiums.

If the press chooses to cover it (and that's a big "if"), some real damage could be done.
.

It's too late to save him

The whole thing really comes down to whether Democrats are going to be motivated to show up or not. Excitement for Hillary is very low. But then that was if you recall what happened in 2012. The polls that Romney had a shot were not wrong regarding who people would vote for if they show up. What they were wrong about was who would show up. In the end Obama got a far greater turnout than predicted. That's what happened.

Can Hillary get people to actually show up and vote against Trump? I wouldn't think so, but 2012 says maybe she can. We'll see.

Early voting indicates they are turning out far more than Republicans.

 

[kaz]

From what I'm seeing, Trump and the party are actually doing the right thing - focusing on exploding Obamacare premiums.

If the press chooses to cover it (and that's a big "if"), some real damage could be done.
.

It's too late to save him

The whole thing really comes down to whether Democrats are going to be motivated to show up or not. Excitement for Hillary is very low. But then that was if you recall what happened in 2012. The polls that Romney had a shot were not wrong regarding who people would vote for if they show up. What they were wrong about was who would show up. In the end Obama got a far greater turnout than predicted. That's what happened.

Can Hillary get people to actually show up and vote against Trump? I wouldn't think so, but 2012 says maybe she can. We'll see.

Early voting indicates they are turning out far more than Republicans.

I've heard that too. Those things can boomerang though

 

[Manonthestreet]

No postponements either....you chose............ pooooorrrrly

 

[Manonthestreet]

TRUMPAMANIA RUNNING WILD
Lessons to learn......be nimble....message can beat money....dont listen to pollsters and naysayers.....be a man damn it.........go after every vote

 

[candycorn]

TRUMPAMANIA RUNNING WILD
Lessons to learn......be nimble....message can beat money....dont listen to pollsters and naysayers.....be a man damn it.........go after every vote

#3 is probably the worst advice. He started gaining traction when he started using the teleprompter and stayed on message. That information comes from polling and detractors. As for pollsters, how do you think he knew he had opportunities in the upper midwest?

 

[Manonthestreet]

TRUMPAMANIA RUNNING WILD
Lessons to learn......be nimble....message can beat money....dont listen to pollsters and naysayers.....be a man damn it.........go after every vote

#3 is probably the worst advice. He started gaining traction when he started using the teleprompter and stayed on message. That information comes from polling and detractors. As for pollsters, how do you think he knew he had opportunities in the upper midwest?

Gee how many times did pollsters say its over...or you cant win that state or those voters cause of X...........message did beat money....any questions

 

[candycorn]

TRUMPAMANIA RUNNING WILD
Lessons to learn......be nimble....message can beat money....dont listen to pollsters and naysayers.....be a man damn it.........go after every vote

#3 is probably the worst advice. He started gaining traction when he started using the teleprompter and stayed on message. That information comes from polling and detractors. As for pollsters, how do you think he knew he had opportunities in the upper midwest?

Gee how many times did pollsters say its over...or you cant win that state or those voters cause of X...........message did beat money....any questions

Pollsters did say that.
Pollsters also gave Mr. Trump some good news apparently. It wasn’t a coincidence he saw an opportunity in the upper mid west where no-one else did.
You asked “any questions”. I have one.
Should he not have listened to them?

 

[Manonthestreet]

keep talking in circles.......he lost romney voters and made it up with hilly voters in different parts of the various states......he went several places no republican had ever gone too.......because he didnt listen to the naysayers....fought for every vote unlike romney and mccain

 

[candycorn]

keep talking in circles.......he lost romney voters and made it up with hilly voters in different parts of the various states......he went several places no republican had ever gone too.......because he didnt listen to the naysayers....fought for every vote unlike romney and mccain

Naysayers are one thing. I was one of them as you may recall
Pollsters are something else. Some will tell you A and some will tell you B.

If you look at what I have replied; I didn’t say listen to your naysayers although I don’t think it is a coincidence that he started getting some traction when he got some discipline into his rallies. I did say listen to pollsters if you think the advice is in line with your strategy. Polling is fact finding. It’s deliverable is neither good nor bad. How you interpret that deliverable is positive or negative.
Saying “don’t listen to pollsters” is a lot like saying don’t look at your speedometer.

I agree with you about naysayers. Play your own game.