BLS Economists Obama Supporters

[PoliticalChic]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

 

[kiwiman127]

And your source is Nobama 2012
I always trust resources like that.

 

[PoliticalChic]

And your source is Nobama 2012
I always trust resources like that.

So...the implication of your post is that you disbelieve same?

Really?


Why? Fear?

Fear that the obvious 'coincidence' of the improvement in the unemployment number is not tied to the fact that the pencil pushers who favor "The ONE" are the same that calculated the number?

That's it, isn't it.




Tell me...does this make you eat your words?


"BY: Washington Free Beacon Staff
October 5, 2012 1:28 pm

At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?”
http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/

 

[TNHarley]

I just read somewhere that obama raised 150 mil last month breaking all campaign records. My question is, who exactly is donating to him? Must be our tax money from the welfare tits! haha.

 

[lukelk]

I have to ask some questions, then I will give the answers.

So why is it wrong to wonder whether the BLS stats have been fudged?

I’ll give you three answers, in order of how convincing I find them.

First, if you know and understand the BLS and its structure — its statutory structure and its employment structure — you understand this simply isn’t how things happen. The BLS is independent of the Department of Labor. If you go to the BLS website, you won’t even find a picture of the Secretary of Labor there. It’s completely firewalled.

The one exception to this would be the Commissioner of the BLS. The president appoints a BLS commissioner, but for most of this administration it’s been a Republican. When his term ran out, Congress refused to confirm Obama’s appointee. So the current commissioner is in fact a career guy from within BLS, and if you know the institution at all, the BLS is an institution of nerds, by nerds.

So you could even argue that Republicans have protected the BLS from political influence by refusing to confirm an Obama appointee?

Those would be your words, not mine!

But there is literally not a political appointee in the building. Furthermore, the process involves so many staff, and the culture of independence is one of, if not the most, deep-seated value within the organization. The problem with the conspiracy theory is that there are so many staff who work on the numbers in various stages that such a conspiracy would be pretty much implausible. Were one to even attempt to do that there would be so many whistleblowers that you would have heard about it already.

I know these people, I’ve seen how they work, I know the culture — it’s unthinkable.

Secondly: Who believes the numbers are being manipulated? Certainly you could look at your twitter feed and Fox news and worry about it right now, but sophisticated players clearly don’t. Watch what happened to the stock market — if there was something wrong with the numbers that wingnuts on fringe blogs could figure out, presumably savvy financial market traders would have figured the same thing out as well. But savvy financial market traders are clearly trading as if this morning’s report was good news. Very good news. So these people have to be claiming that not only is there a conspiracy but that they are smarter and more aware of it than Goldman Sachs and various other savvy financial market traders.

And the third argument — which I find the least convincing, but it’s at least worth mentioning — is if you were going to fiddle the numbers, this isn’t how you would do it. There’s a strong counterargument that Obama has actually been somewhat unlucky. The BLS discovered two weeks ago that they had been undercounting jobs growth in the previous year by 32,000 a month. So Obama could have had much much stronger headlines for each month of the previous year. Would the president have wanted such dire headlines? Quite clearly, no. And if you were going to manipulate anything, what you would manipulate would be the headline payroll number, which was 114,000 — bang on expectations.



So what explains all the revisions? Last month’s and July’s payroll numbers both got big upward revisions. Where do these new numbers come from?

The payroll number literally comes from a survey of firms. The BLS asks them how many people on your payroll, and some firms just get around to filling out their surveys late, and send them in late. So what we’ve learned here is that there are a bunch of firms over the last few months which were basically too busy hiring people to fill in their forms on time. This is a fairly standard cyclical response — you also see it when firing becomes a really big issue — sometimes firms are too busy firing people.


I hope you enjoy the read, and I welcome debate with facts in return.

 

[Wry Catcher]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

Wow, donating must mean these two people are liars and cheats and liberals. Harly is the only person at the BLS to collate and report out - no one checks the results he publishers - these left wing liberal conclusions.

And Phillips, hell everyone knows about him, he is the only one in his agency to report out on the impact of "Obamacare". Another liar and cheat.

Thanks PC, you make everything so simple even a Willow Tree can understand.

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

Wow, donating must mean these two people are liars and cheats and liberals. Harly is the only person at the BLS to collate and report out - no one checks the results he publishers - these left wing liberal conclusions.

And Phillips, hell everyone knows about him, he is the only one in his agency to report out on the impact of "Obamacare". Another liar and cheat.

Thanks PC, you make everything so simple even a Willow Tree can understand.

Being you think you're so smart, why don't you show us the math which lowers the unemployment rate from 8.1% down to 7.8% with a mere 114k jobs created, not even enough jobs to keep pace with population growth?? Let's see it.. LIBRUL FUZZY MATH..

 

[Ravi]

This is so awesome!

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

This is so awesome!

Yes it is! Barack Obama and his contributors AT THE BLS fudged the numbers and are about to be busted for it.. Chicago Thug politics don't belong in the WH.

 

[lukelk]

1. "bureau of labor statistics economists contributors to the democratic party and obama....no wonder no one believes the september jobs numbers....

2. at least two economists at the bureau of labor statistics (bls) have contributed to president barack obama’s campaign.

3. Harley frazis of bethesda, md, has contributed at least $2,000 to obama and $9,000 to the democratic national convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at bls, harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “how to think about time-use data: What inferences can we make about long- and short-run time use from time diaries?

4. Stephen phillips of washington, d.c., has contributed at least $270 to obama during the 2012 cycle. ...phillips was responsible for examining the impact of obamacare on healthcare north american industry classification system indices. ..."
nobama 2012: Bureau of labor statistics economists contributors to the democratic party and obama....no wonder no one believes the september jobs numbers....

wow, donating must mean these two people are liars and cheats and liberals. Harly is the only person at the bls to collate and report out - no one checks the results he publishers - these left wing liberal conclusions.

And phillips, hell everyone knows about him, he is the only one in his agency to report out on the impact of "obamacare". Another liar and cheat.

Thanks pc, you make everything so simple even a willow tree can understand.

being you think you're so smart, why don't you show us the math which lowers the unemployment rate from 8.1% down to 7.8% with a mere 114k jobs created, not even enough jobs to keep pace with population growth?? Let's see it.. Librul fuzzy math..

not a factual argument, please bring facts and a real argument///////next

also EDIT: I JUST DID READ MY POST!

 

[Wry Catcher]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

Wow, donating must mean these two people are liars and cheats and liberals. Harly is the only person at the BLS to collate and report out - no one checks the results he publishers - these left wing liberal conclusions.

And Phillips, hell everyone knows about him, he is the only one in his agency to report out on the impact of "Obamacare". Another liar and cheat.

Thanks PC, you make everything so simple even a Willow Tree can understand.

Being you think you're so smart, why don't you show us the math which lowers the unemployment rate from 8.1% down to 7.8% with a mere 114k jobs created, not even enough jobs to keep pace with population growth?? Let's see it.. LIBRUL FUZZY MATH..

Sure:

8.1 - .3 = 7.8

Smart Ass, yes I can be.

However, you tell me how many how baby boomer's retired.

How many employed Americans died?

How many public employees were let go?

How many got married and were able to quit work?

How many had babies and took a leave of absence?

How many members of the armed forces separated from AD?

How many workers were hurt on the job and went off on disability?

How many students quit work and went back to school?

 

[Ravi]

Isn't it funny that none of these threads are ending up in the conspiracy forum?

 

[lukelk]

Isn't it funny that none of these threads are ending up in the conspiracy forum?

RAVI the most annoying part of it, is no one is responding to my post with a REAL argument.

 

[Babbleon]

This is so awesome!

Yes it is! Barack Obama and his contributors AT THE BLS fudged the numbers and are about to be busted for it.. Chicago Thug politics don't belong in the WH.

OR... I have an idea.. and this is a WHOPPER so hold on to your tin foils..

Nearly 600,000 of these employed individuals have accepted seasonal/part-time work. Know anyone in retail? Give them a call. I have a friend at Marshall's who hired seven people in one week last month..

Why did joblessness amongst teens go down, while the underemployment number stay the same?

These people are still classified as underemployed because they do not have full time work and seasonal hires are most likely to be minimum wage working teens, rather than pay older individuals more that may have prior retail experience...

Is everyone actually this dense? Employers do this every damn year because it is much cheaper than paying the staff they already have tons of overtime during busy holiday seasons.

Google "seasonal hiring up" and you get the answer you seek, muffin.

 

[Babbleon]

I also want to note that this isn't necessarily good news for democrats if this gets Obama re-elected.. We all know seasonal hires do not stick and soon most of these individuals will be unemployed by the end of the holiday season..

The number will spike back close to what it was since many of these employees will not be retained..

 

[Vast LWC]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

This is from an interview today with the head of BLS:

Q. Is there any chance for the data to be doctored?

A. No. And we are not political appointees. In my program, there are 15 economists. I have been here for 15 years, some of my colleagues have been here for longer. We don't really talk politics at work, at least not any more than in any other workplace. I would say I wouldn't even really know which way my colleagues lean politically.

BLS Explains Why 'Cooked' Jobs Report Charge is 'Preposterous' - CNBC

So, there's 2 people that contributed to the Obama campaign... OUT OF 15.

Wow, that's a revelation alright.

Fact is, it would take a massive bi-partisan conspiracy to doctor the data without anyone leaking the fact that it was doctored.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Isn't it funny that none of these threads are ending up in the conspiracy forum?

RAVI the most annoying part of it, is no one is responding to my post with a REAL argument.

How can anyone possibly argue with this level of dispositive proof:

"I know these people, I’ve seen how they work, I know the culture..."


Wish I'd have thought of that on a few calculus exams....

 

[PoliticalChic]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

This is from an interview today with the head of BLS:

Q. Is there any chance for the data to be doctored?

A. No. And we are not political appointees. In my program, there are 15 economists. I have been here for 15 years, some of my colleagues have been here for longer. We don't really talk politics at work, at least not any more than in any other workplace. I would say I wouldn't even really know which way my colleagues lean politically.

BLS Explains Why 'Cooked' Jobs Report Charge is 'Preposterous' - CNBC

So, there's 2 people that contributed to the Obama campaign... OUT OF 15.

Wow, that's a revelation alright.

Fact is, it would take a massive bi-partisan conspiracy to doctor the data without anyone leaking the fact that it was doctored.

And, this would be your position if the shoe were on the other foot?

 

[hazlnut]

1. "Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

2. At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign.

3. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?

4. Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. ...Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. ..."
Nobama 2012: Bureau of Labor Statistics Economists contributors to the Democratic Party and Obama....No wonder No One Believes the September Jobs Numbers....

Do you have a real credible source for this, sweetie?

Or are you just aching to be mocked?

Cause I'll mock all over your face.

 

[Vast LWC]

This is from an interview today with the head of BLS:

Q. Is there any chance for the data to be doctored?

A. No. And we are not political appointees. In my program, there are 15 economists. I have been here for 15 years, some of my colleagues have been here for longer. We don't really talk politics at work, at least not any more than in any other workplace. I would say I wouldn't even really know which way my colleagues lean politically.

BLS Explains Why 'Cooked' Jobs Report Charge is 'Preposterous' - CNBC

So, there's 2 people that contributed to the Obama campaign... OUT OF 15.

Wow, that's a revelation alright.

Fact is, it would take a massive bi-partisan conspiracy to doctor the data without anyone leaking the fact that it was doctored.

And, this would be your position if the shoe were on the other foot?

It would be. Because none of the people who compile this data over at BLS are Obama appointees, or appointees by anyone else, mind you.

You would have to keep every one of the 15 economists involved silent on the conspiracy, plus all the people that work for them.

in order for a conspiracy to work, you either have to have a lot of very loyal people in on it, or a very small number of people with motivation not to say anything.

Neither of those situations are the case here.