Assuming Indiana,Ohio&Virginia Flipped Red,Leaves 2 States For GOP To Take Out Obama.

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

I am already writing off Virginia, with Bob McDonnell at 69% approval and the size of his victory shows it's an anti-obama state. Obama has already lost Indiana,especially with Mike Pence in the running, and very low polling there for Obama.

 

[BluePhantom]

Go and check the polls, oh hopefuls. Much of what you are writing is mere hopefulness and not grounded in reality.

I watch them every day. Actually I check RCP twice a day and have done so for years. I even have a spreadsheet that I pop everything into. It measures the historical accuracy of each polling firm, their bias trends, analyzes the crosstabs, breaks it down into demographics....all sorts of stuff....yeah i know...I have no life. I admit it.

What the polls are telling me right now is that Obama is in very, very big trouble, but it aint over yet.

 

[BluePhantom]

I am already writing off Virginia, with Bob McDonnell at 69% approval and the size of his victory shows it's an anti-obama state. Obama has already lost Indiana,especially with Mike Pence in the running, and very low polling there for Obama.

Well again we get back to who the nominee will be. IN is going to go GOP regardless unless by some crazy miracle (or nightmare) someone like Bachmann or Santorum were to get the nomination. If it's Romney I agree that VA is lost to Obama. If it's Cain or Gingrich I think it comes right back into play.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Go and check the polls, oh hopefuls. Much of what you are writing is mere hopefulness and not grounded in reality.

I watch them every day. Actually I check RCP twice a day and have done so for years. I even have a spreadsheet that I pop everything into. It measures the historical accuracy of each polling firm, their bias trends, analyzes the crosstabs, breaks it down into demographics....all sorts of stuff....yeah i know...I have no life. I admit it.

What the polls are telling me right now is that Obama is in very, very big trouble, but it aint over yet.

Obama is certainly not a shoe-in, has issues, but still is more popular personally that the other GOP candidates and has been holding his own. Time will tell.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

it is my belief that Obama would need quite a bit of voter fraud to win those purple states. I don't see him winning North Carolina especially with the Boeing Favoritism and Obama sending the FBI to Gibson Guitar. Southerners are very proud of their country music !!!

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and to think way back in 2010, Chrissy Tingles spent a segment on Hardboils on a possibility of a Palin/Bloomberg Presidential race. What was he drinking that day?

 

[BluePhantom]

Obama is certainly not a shoe-in, has issues, but still is more popular personally that the other GOP candidates and has been holding his own. Time will tell.

Personal popularity doesn't matter in this election. Recently I went to New Orleans and one of the things that really surprised me was the comments by the black community I spoke with regarding Obama. What I heard over and over was "I love the guy but I aint going broke for him."

This election will be all about the economy. Obama's approval rating on the economy is right around 35% with 60% disapproval. For his overall job performance it's around 44% approval and 50% disapproval. Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has 22% strongly approving and 38% strongly disapproving (meaning right now he has about 22% locked in for him and 38% locked out for him - that's not good).

But yes, it's early and a lot of things can change

 

[BluePhantom]

it is my belief that Obama would need quite a bit of voter fraud to win those purple states. I don't see him winning North Carolina especially with the Boeing Favoritism and Obama sending the FBI to Gibson Guitar. Southerners are very proud of their country music !!!

Well the Boeing thing is South Carolina, but I would agree. I don't think anyone but the most biased or delusional person would suggest that North Carolina is currently in Obama's camp.

 

[Dragon]

Yeah that's a good point but 2008 was a particularly emotional election as well.

Well, my ideas about that have to do with the generational cycle of history and the theory of turnings. Roughly every 20 years, we enter a new national mood, as a new generation starts coming of age. There are four of these "turnings," repeating in a fixed order, and four generation types, likewise. 2008 was a watershed year, the beginning of a Crisis turning. Previous starts to Crisis turnings in U.S. history have been 1929, 1860, and 1773. Look at what followed each of those years for an idea of what I'm talking about. One of the things that changes when we make a turning change is electoral patterns.

You can walk this back through recent history. Prior to the Crisis we were in what's called an Unraveling. That started in 1984, year of Reagan's reelection, and ended in 2008. 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 were all Unraveling elections and exhibited a different pattern, not so real-world focused. We were deferring our big problems instead of dealing with them and the voters didn't want to be confronted with reality. Now, they want something done.

Before that was an Awakening era, 1964 to 1984, and before that a High era, 1946-1964, and before that we're in World War II and another Crisis.

What I'm saying as regards elections is that you shouldn't assume that the next few election cycles will behave like they did in the Unraveling, because they surely won't.

I strongly disagree. Go back and look at the polls in 2008 right before the election. McCain had pulled ahead and was trending toward a strong win. Immediately after the market crashed McCain's numbers completely tanked.

The market crashing was the start of the Crisis, just as the stock market crash in 1929 was, or Lincoln's election in 1860, or the Boston Tea Party in 1773. It's a pretty sharp divider. Before, still Unraveling; after, Crisis. But we're still in Crisis now and will be next year and until the late 2020s. That by no means makes Obama a shoe-in, but it does mean there will be very little tolerance for blither-blather on the part of the voters. Which may help or hurt Obama depending on both him and his opponent (whoever that ends up being).

And don't forget, taking a strong position does not necessarily mean you are being divisive. If either candidate from either side goes into the last leg of this election pounding an extremist point of view designed to rally the ultra-progressives or the evangelicals...he's fucked. The middle will reject them completely and elections are won and lost slightly right or slightly left of center.

Hmm. The problem there is that "the middle" or independent voters are a myth, and also, due to the effect of corporate corruption, the national center on economic issues is to the left of the Democratic Party center of gravity. (Not on social issues, but on economic ones it is.) So w/r/t Obama, although may not the Republican candidate, a move sharply to the left is what's needed.

A lot of people misunderstand what happened in 2010. The Village narrative is that the Democrats overreached to the left and lost the independents, but that's not true. First off, there hardly are any true independents. Almost all voters who call themselves "independent" vote consistently for either the Republican or Democratic Party, just like those who use the party labels. You can call these Democrat Indies and Republican Indies. They're just like Democrats and Republicans in how they vote, but for whatever reason they resist calling themselves that. I'm an independent (technically), but hardly a moderate.

So what matters is not swings back and forth between the tiny number of true independents that really do swing-vote, which do exist but only in small and usually insignificant numbers. What matters is whether the Dem Indies and the Rep Indies go to the polls or stay home, and the same factors drive that as whether the Dems and Reps do.

What happened in 2009-2010 is that Obama and the Democrats in Congress UNDER-reached. It was really the worst of all worlds, because they moved the government just enough to the left to make hard-core conservatives think the sky was falling without going nearly far enough to satisfy the people who voted them into office. So Republicans and Rep Indies were highly motivated to vote in 2010, while Democrats and Dem Indies stayed home. (In fact, there was an actual organized MOVEMENT on the left in 2010 to stay home and "send a message" to the Democrats. I kid you not. Dumb? Yes. But real.)

If Obama wants to lock up next year's election, he can, but I have my doubts that he will. Here's what he needs to do.

1) Keep up the class warfare talk, and actually take action as much as possible (hard with Congress the way it is, of course).

2) FIRE TIMOTHY GEITHNER! There is probably no single step he could take that would be better than this. Replacing Bernanke at the Fed would be good, too, but Geithner especially needs his walking papers.

3) Refuse to take any more money from Wall Street. Say and do things to really piss off bankers. The madder they are at him the better, politically.

4) Keep his promise to end the Iraq war.

If he does all these things and if the economy continues to improve, he can't lose. I doubt he will do all of them, which means he can lose. But he doesn't have to.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Obama is certainly not a shoe-in, has issues, but still is more popular personally that the other GOP candidates and has been holding his own. Time will tell.

Personal popularity doesn't matter in this election. Recently I went to New Orleans and one of the things that really surprised me was the comments by the black community I spoke with regarding Obama. What I heard over and over was "I love the guy but I aint going broke for him."

This election will be all about the economy. Obama's approval rating on the economy is right around 35% with 60% disapproval. For his overall job performance it's around 44% approval and 50% disapproval. Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has 22% strongly approving and 38% strongly disapproving (meaning right now he has about 22% locked in for him and 38% locked out for him - that's not good).

But yes, it's early and a lot of things can change

You are 10% points off on both sides, and that tilts the conclusions dramatically.

Same problem still exists with perception. Put a voter in the ballot booth with Obama/Biden and Newt/Bachmann, Obama will win. The social values folks will not vote for Newt. They might not vote for Romney because of religion.

This race is long from over.

 

[BluePhantom]

You are 10% points off on both sides, and that tilts the conclusions dramatically.

This race is long from over.

Uh huh

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Poll: Obama disapproval rating on economy at record high - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

read 'em and weep, brother.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Anybody can go to realclearpolitics.com, blue phantom, and tell you are shooting blanks.

You are so cute!

 

[Zander]

Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, and South Carolina- will all go GOP in 2012. That is the end of Obama.

Any other states will be a bonus. New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana...are all in play. All these states were won by the dilettante in '08. Obama has a lot of work to do if he expects to win.

 

[BluePhantom]

Anybody can go to realclearpolitics.com, blue phantom, and tell you are shooting blanks.

You are so cute!

Jeez. Ok let's see. First you write

Go and check the polls, oh hopefuls. Much of what you are writing is mere hopefulness and not grounded in reality.

Then when I show you the polls I am shooting blanks. Classic.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

you also need to consider the size of the crowds that have been showing up over the last year {i know I mentioned it before} and why did he go to Peurto Rico? I didn't know they were voting, and Obama doesn't speak Puerto Rican anyway, so what was the point of making a speech there. But look at how small the crowds have been for the last year. I would love to see a rally of 5000 excited supporters in upstate Ohio and Pennsylvania next summer.

 

[alan1]

it is my belief that Obama would need quite a bit of voter fraud to win those purple states. I don't see him winning North Carolina especially with the Boeing Favoritism and Obama sending the FBI to Gibson Guitar. Southerners are very proud of their country music !!!

Well the Boeing thing is South Carolina, but I would agree. I don't think anyone but the most biased or delusional person would suggest that North Carolina is currently in Obama's camp.

There are an awful lot of carpet baggers in NC that come from traditionally democrat strongholds in the northeast. The biggest city in NC (Charlotte) just went overwhelmingly democrat in their city council. The DNC is holding their convention in Charlotte also.
I suspect that NC will go red in the presidential election, but it's not a given.

 

[BluePhantom]

you also need to consider the size of the crowds that have been showing up over the last year {i know I mentioned it before} and why did he go to Peurto Rico? I didn't know they were voting, and Obama doesn't speak Puerto Rican anyway, so what was the point of making a speech there. But look at how small the crowds have been for the last year. I would love to see a rally of 5000 excited supporters in upstate Ohio and Pennsylvania next summer.

Puerto Rico counts in the primaries. So does Guam, Virgin Islands, etc. My guess is that he went there prior to the nomination being secured because he was in a dog fight with Hillary

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

And if Obama campaigns again next spring with those two teleprompters in front of him, as he speaks to his average crowd of 1042, how will it look as a leader who looks like a bobble-head when he speaks? you all remember when he did some major speeches in 2009, and he rarley looked directly at the center camera? his head was going left to right,,,right to left. and this is a president? it may as well been one of those human robots they make in Japan.

 

[BluePhantom]

And if Obama campaigns again next spring with those two teleprompters in front of him, as he speaks to his average crowd of 1042, how will it look as a leader who looks like a bobble-head when he speaks? you all remember when he did some major speeches in 2009, and he rarley looked directly at the center camera? his head was going left to right,,,right to left. and this is a president? it may as well been one of those human robots they make in Japan.

Well if Obama continues to draw weak crowds the DNC will start bussing people in. That's pretty standard stuff and the media won't report that anyhow because they are so biased

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

I will never understand why a fair minded american would vote for a candidate with such a vegetable personality,no charisma and can't speak to an audience without cue cards? (I just like using the cue card example)..look at Newt, he never stumbles,pauses,stammers,,,he just answers the questions and the answers are short and right to the point,,,,why does Obama take 3 to 5 minutes to answer a simple question?