Assuming Indiana,Ohio&Virginia Flipped Red,Leaves 2 States For GOP To Take Out Obama.

[Sarah G]

Ohio isn't flipping red. Your assumptions are incorrect.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

well we can all agree, it's still too early to predict the accuracy of any state outcome, but you also have to take into the consideration of the 47% who will vote for anyone but Obama (just like in 2008) Obama still doesn't have a solid 55/45 lead in any of the 7 to 12 swing states. at this point, it's just a wait and see game. By April/May we will have a pretty good idea of what's to come.

 

[BluePhantom]

well we can all agree, it's still too early to predict the accuracy of any state outcome, but you also have to take into the consideration of the 47% who will vote for anyone but Obama (just like in 2008) Obama still doesn't have a solid 55/45 lead in any of the 7 to 12 swing states. at this point, it's just a wait and see game. By April/May we will have a pretty good idea of what's to come.

Well right now the numbers are really unreliable. This is because the nomination isn't settled with the GOP and right now we have a lot of people saying "if my guy isn't nominated I will stay home or vote Obama". A good month after the nominee is designated everyone will change their minds about that shit and find a reason to support the GOP nominee. That's always the way it works.

As far as Ohio staying blue....possible but I find it highly doubtful. The most recent Quinnapiac poll has Romney down by only three. That's great news for Romney right now. A SurveyUSA poll released today has Romney and Obama tied in Pennsylvania. That's really great news for Romney.

 

[freedombecki]

well we can all agree, it's still too early to predict the accuracy of any state outcome, but you also have to take into the consideration of the 47% who will vote for anyone but Obama (just like in 2008) Obama still doesn't have a solid 55/45 lead in any of the 7 to 12 swing states. at this point, it's just a wait and see game. By April/May we will have a pretty good idea of what's to come.

Well right now the numbers are really unreliable. This is because the nomination isn't settled with the GOP and right now we have a lot of people saying "if my guy isn't nominated I will stay home or vote Obama". A good month after the nominee is designated everyone will change their minds about that shit and find a reason to support the GOP nominee. That's always the way it works.

As far as Ohio staying blue....possible but I find it highly doubtful. The most recent Quinnapiac poll has Romney down by only three. That's great news for Romney right now. A SurveyUSA poll released today has Romney and Obama tied in Pennsylvania. That's really great news for Romney.

Having Pennsylvania would be good for anyone. When those Pennsylvanians stood up to the hijackers on Flight 93, I realized somebody there teaches people to count on themselves, because no one else will. All of them died, but it's that they tried to do something about their heinous situation. They just didn't know what kind of monsters they were trying to stand up to. It's their valor in the face of extreme adversity that upped Pennsylvania State's creds in my book. They acted together, too. I salute the great state of Pennsylvania and was so sorry for their loss that terrible day. *sigh*

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

What do you think would happen if it winds up a Newt/Mitt or Mitt/Newt Ticket?

 

[JoeB131]

What do you think would happen if it winds up a Newt/Mitt or Mitt/Newt Ticket?

If Romney's on the ticket, I'll vote for Obama or third party.

 

[BluePhantom]

What do you think would happen if it winds up a Newt/Mitt or Mitt/Newt Ticket?

Well the top of the ticket is really what is important. People bitch about the VP candidate but in the end very few people decide to cast their vote based on that. The VP does nothing but bang the gavel in the Senate and wait for the President to die.

Mitt right now is the where the smart money is. The early primaries really favor him and that builds momentum, and momentum brings campaign donations. Florida is really the big one because it's a winner take all state. If Romney gets Florida it's over.

I don't think Newt will be the VP candidate. As I said earlier, the inside whispers (and the smart play) would be Marco Rubio. He is loved by the Tea Party and as a Hispanic he is sure to siphon off a good portion of the Latino vote that is kind of borderline (albeit leaning Democrat) in their political affiliation.

Joe says below he won't vote for Romney. Perhaps that's true, but this is what I was alluding to earlier. Right now the Republican party is all rallying behind the candidate they endorse so we're all kind of split right now. There will be a ton of people, like Joe, who claim "if it's not my man I won't vote GOP". In the end very few of them actually follow through with that threat simply because the idea of Obama winning again is more unpalatable than the alternative and realistically they know that a vote for a third party candidate is a vote for Obama.

So it really all comes down to the independents and the moderates. Romney polls far far better among them than Newt does right now. Romney can conceivably take Wisconsin, he will almost certainly take New Hampshire, he will take Nevada in a walk, and he can bring Pennsylvania and Iowa into play. He will be strong in Ohio. That means Romney has several paths to 270. I don't see Gingrich being able to do that.

Gingrich will really struggle in Ohio and Virginia; no chance he will take New Hampshire or Wisconsin. Iowa will likely be gone. I like Gingrich but I have maintained from the beginning that I find his electability to be questionable because opinions of him are very polarized. That's not to say he could not win, but it would be much much more difficult.

 

[Sallow]

Romney's talking smack about hispanics isn't going to endear him, and the Evangelicals are going to stay home. And he'll have to rely on Rick Perry to get out the vote for him..... ummm... yeah... that's not gonna happen.

Interesting analysis. I already gave my take on this in the beginning of this conversation:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...he-gop-be-genuinely-worried-about-2012-a.html


Regarding Hispanics though....I would submit that the VP nominee will almost certainly be Marco Rubio in order to grab a strong share of the Hispanic vote and that will impact things greatly....particularly in the southwest.

Rubio won't grab jack. The GOP has made it quite clear they aren't interested in hispanic votes. Or votes of anyone other then white evangelists.

Heh..see if you can win with that.

 

[Sallow]

Ohio isn't flipping red. Your assumptions are incorrect.

Quite the opposite. The whole Union killing agenda has mobilized Unions.

 

[elvis]

A few weeks ago I posted a thread about the five states the GOP would need to flip back in the red column from 2008.
Well being Ohio voted to kill Obama-Care this week, we can hopefully give it to the GOP in 2012. This leaves Pennsylvania and Florida. Obama's approval in Pennsylvania has been hovering around 35/36/37% all year, many believe Obama has already lost Florida since it is also in the red column.
For those of you who have never worked with the "Click The States Map" this is the link,what you do is click "2008" and then click the states that you believe Obama has lost.
And even if Obama wins Florida,there is also another secenrio where he can still lose if the GOP take the west,NC, and New Jersey.
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

it's going to be really tough for the republicans, especially if Gingrich wins, which is looking more likely now.

 

[occupied]

Next summer is likely to see some momentous social events with the Tea Party, OWS, and Both campaigns in high gear. No way to know where things are going to swing, we are in for more "interesting times".

 

[BluePhantom]

Ohio isn't flipping red. Your assumptions are incorrect.

Quite the opposite. The whole Union killing agenda has mobilized Unions.

Oh shit, the unions are always mobilized. So Ohio voted down the union law. Big deal. They also voted down Obamacare so Ohio is sending a very mixed message...except that liberal or conservative they want government out of their business.

 

[BluePhantom]

Rubio won't grab jack. The GOP has made it quite clear they aren't interested in hispanic votes. Or votes of anyone other then white evangelists.

Heh..see if you can win with that.

Not very difficult to do so. Right now the GOP candidates are scrapping for the party base because that is what decides the nomination. After that (no matter who is nominated) they will be interested in the independents and the moderates.

It's really quite simple. To win an election you need 50% plus one vote. Well first of all you realize that roughly 41% of the people vote. So the other 59%...politicians from either side don't give a damn about them or their opinions. Out of that 41%, about 25% are people who will vote Democrat no matter what. No one cares about them either because for a Republican their votes are lost no matter what you do and for a Democrat their votes are secured no matter what you do. Just the same there are about 25% who will vote Republican no matter what. Same thing...no one cares about them for the same reason. Now you are down to about 20% of the population. Well you only need 10% of them plus one vote.

That 20% that is left over are independents and moderates not evangelicals. The evangelicals are going to vote GOP regardless so candidates from either side don't give a shit about them. The same thing is true of ultra-liberals for a Democratic candidate. This is why candidates from either side move toward the middle after they are nominated and secure their party base.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

how about a Romney/Ryan or Romney/DeMint Ticket? what do you all think of those?

 

[Dragon]

41% of the people voted in 2010, but that was a midterm and one with unusually low turnout. In 2008, it was 61.6%.

50%+1 as a strategy only worked when the people weren't aroused about real political issues. The strategy involved the candidates not saying anything divisive, not taking stands on anything, leaving the election razor-close. That's what happened in 2000 and 2004, but it's not what happened in 2008, and anyone who tries it in 2012 will get hammered.

 

[BluePhantom]

how about a Romney/Ryan or Romney/DeMint Ticket? what do you all think of those?

I think Ryan and DeMint will alienate independents and moderates. As I said before people vote for the top of the ticket except under special circumstances so I don't think it would necessarily hurt Romney too much but it wouldn't help either. Rubio on the other hand grabbed 14% more support from the Latino community in his election to the Florida Senate than the GOP candidate usually gets. And remember he did this in a race with a strong third party candidate in Charlie Crist who was a Republican prior to losing the nomination to Rubio. With Rubio as possibly the first Hispanic VP he would definitely increase Romney's share of the Latino vote for many of the same reasons why African-Americans tend to support Obama without question. Rubio is one of those rare examples where he would actually help the presidential candidate to a conceivable large degree.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and what if the union vote backfires in Ohio? residents voted for the bill, but where will they get the money to pay for it? I don't think the State has it. what are they gonna do? start taxing residents two dollars every time their flush their toilets and add 25 cents per gallon gas tax?

 

[Dragon]

and what if the union vote backfires in Ohio? residents voted for the bill, but where will they get the money to pay for it?

It's never a good idea to believe your own rhetoric.

All the proposed budget cuts were agreed to by the unions before the now-repealed legislation was passed. The repeal won't cost anything.

 

[BluePhantom]

41% of the people voted in 2010, but that was a midterm and one with unusually low turnout. In 2008, it was 61.6%.

Yeah that's a good point but 2008 was a particularly emotional election as well. I just did some quick research and since the 1972 election the average turnout in a presidential election is 53.39%. In the last four elections it's averaged 53.57%. But even with that you are only going from a 20% population target to about 26%. Regardless, the point is that Sallow argued that the GOP only cares about white evangelicals. Whether it's 20% or 26% or somewhere in between, evangelicals are not in that category.

50%+1 as a strategy only worked when the people weren't aroused about real political issues. The strategy involved the candidates not saying anything divisive, not taking stands on anything, leaving the election razor-close. That's what happened in 2000 and 2004, but it's not what happened in 2008, and anyone who tries it in 2012 will get hammered.

I strongly disagree. Go back and look at the polls in 2008 right before the election. McCain had pulled ahead and was trending toward a strong win. Immediately after the market crashed McCain's numbers completely tanked. The crash was so close to election day, people were losing money, people were furious and they voted according to that fury and passion. Prior to the crash even Nate Silver over at Five-Thirty-Eight was having twice daily hissy fits because even he had to concede that Obama was going down. After the crash he was like a little kid on Christmas day.

And don't forget, taking a strong position does not necessarily mean you are being divisive. If either candidate from either side goes into the last leg of this election pounding an extremist point of view designed to rally the ultra-progressives or the evangelicals...he's fucked. The middle will reject them completely and elections are won and lost slightly right or slightly left of center.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Go and check the polls, oh hopefuls. Much of what you are writing is mere hopefulness and not grounded in reality.