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well we can all agree, it's still too early to predict the accuracy of any state outcome, but you also have to take into the consideration of the 47% who will vote for anyone but Obama (just like in 2008) Obama still doesn't have a solid 55/45 lead in any of the 7 to 12 swing states. at this point, it's just a wait and see game. By April/May we will have a pretty good idea of what's to come.
Having Pennsylvania would be good for anyone. When those Pennsylvanians stood up to the hijackers on Flight 93, I realized somebody there teaches people to count on themselves, because no one else will. All of them died, but it's that they tried to do something about their heinous situation. They just didn't know what kind of monsters they were trying to stand up to. It's their valor in the face of extreme adversity that upped Pennsylvania State's creds in my book. They acted together, too. I salute the great state of Pennsylvania and was so sorry for their loss that terrible day. *sigh*well we can all agree, it's still too early to predict the accuracy of any state outcome, but you also have to take into the consideration of the 47% who will vote for anyone but Obama (just like in 2008) Obama still doesn't have a solid 55/45 lead in any of the 7 to 12 swing states. at this point, it's just a wait and see game. By April/May we will have a pretty good idea of what's to come.
Well right now the numbers are really unreliable. This is because the nomination isn't settled with the GOP and right now we have a lot of people saying "if my guy isn't nominated I will stay home or vote Obama". A good month after the nominee is designated everyone will change their minds about that shit and find a reason to support the GOP nominee. That's always the way it works.
As far as Ohio staying blue....possible but I find it highly doubtful. The most recent Quinnapiac poll has Romney down by only three. That's great news for Romney right now. A SurveyUSA poll released today has Romney and Obama tied in Pennsylvania. That's really great news for Romney.
What do you think would happen if it winds up a Newt/Mitt or Mitt/Newt Ticket?
What do you think would happen if it winds up a Newt/Mitt or Mitt/Newt Ticket?
Romney's talking smack about hispanics isn't going to endear him, and the Evangelicals are going to stay home. And he'll have to rely on Rick Perry to get out the vote for him..... ummm... yeah... that's not gonna happen.
Interesting analysis. I already gave my take on this in the beginning of this conversation:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...he-gop-be-genuinely-worried-about-2012-a.html
Regarding Hispanics though....I would submit that the VP nominee will almost certainly be Marco Rubio in order to grab a strong share of the Hispanic vote and that will impact things greatly....particularly in the southwest.
Ohio isn't flipping red. Your assumptions are incorrect.
it's going to be really tough for the republicans, especially if Gingrich wins, which is looking more likely now.
A few weeks ago I posted a thread about the five states the GOP would need to flip back in the red column from 2008.
Well being Ohio voted to kill Obama-Care this week, we can hopefully give it to the GOP in 2012. This leaves Pennsylvania and Florida. Obama's approval in Pennsylvania has been hovering around 35/36/37% all year, many believe Obama has already lost Florida since it is also in the red column.
For those of you who have never worked with the "Click The States Map" this is the link,what you do is click "2008" and then click the states that you believe Obama has lost.
And even if Obama wins Florida,there is also another secenrio where he can still lose if the GOP take the west,NC, and New Jersey.
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!
Ohio isn't flipping red. Your assumptions are incorrect.
Quite the opposite. The whole Union killing agenda has mobilized Unions.
Rubio won't grab jack. The GOP has made it quite clear they aren't interested in hispanic votes. Or votes of anyone other then white evangelists.
Heh..see if you can win with that.
how about a Romney/Ryan or Romney/DeMint Ticket? what do you all think of those?
and what if the union vote backfires in Ohio? residents voted for the bill, but where will they get the money to pay for it?
41% of the people voted in 2010, but that was a midterm and one with unusually low turnout. In 2008, it was 61.6%.
50%+1 as a strategy only worked when the people weren't aroused about real political issues. The strategy involved the candidates not saying anything divisive, not taking stands on anything, leaving the election razor-close. That's what happened in 2000 and 2004, but it's not what happened in 2008, and anyone who tries it in 2012 will get hammered.