Assuming Indiana,Ohio&Virginia Flipped Red,Leaves 2 States For GOP To Take Out Obama.

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

A few weeks ago I posted a thread about the five states the GOP would need to flip back in the red column from 2008.
Well being Ohio voted to kill Obama-Care this week, we can hopefully give it to the GOP in 2012. This leaves Pennsylvania and Florida. Obama's approval in Pennsylvania has been hovering around 35/36/37% all year, many believe Obama has already lost Florida since it is also in the red column.
For those of you who have never worked with the "Click The States Map" this is the link,what you do is click "2008" and then click the states that you believe Obama has lost.
And even if Obama wins Florida,there is also another secenrio where he can still lose if the GOP take the west,NC, and New Jersey.
2012 Electoral Map - Create Your Prediction!

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and can you imagine if "the real polls" show the race too close to call in Illinois,Cally&New York? maybe Obama needs some of that "Billion Dollars" to rig the election in deep blue states as well. Hey, no problem in California, NO ID Required there!

 

[JoeB131]

Realistically, I don't know if he's going to flip any states.

Here's the thing. Obama is running ahead of nearly everyone the GOP is putting up right now. He's running the least ahead of Romney, but that's only because the MSM hasn't engaged in the kind of character assassination on Reversable Mittens they have on Cain, Newt, Perry and Bachmann.

At least not yet.

When he gets the nomination, everyone is going to get to find out how Crazy Mormons really are.

But I digress.

Given the schelacking Kasich took on Issue 2 in Ohio, I don't think that we can count on it flipping next time. Yes, Issue 3 might give you some hope, but not really.

These are the states that Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, but went for Obama last time-

IN, OH, NC, CO, NV, FL.

Bush also one the following states in one of his contests, but McCain lost them- NH, IA, NM.

The only one of these I see as being sure fire flip back for the GOP next time in IN.

I see the following scenarios for Obama to pick up Red States.

If Romney is the nominee, expect a lot of Evangelicals to stay home.

That would put Georgia in play. That would put Texas in play.

Texas is the one the GOP should really worry about. Romney's talking smack about hispanics isn't going to endear him, and the Evangelicals are going to stay home. And he'll have to rely on Rick Perry to get out the vote for him..... ummm... yeah... that's not gonna happen.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

this would be a great cartoon, have queen nancy organizing,counting the final tallies in her state, and next to her is this red dumpster overflowing with republican ballots. Pretty much what happened in IRAN.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

well you also have to consider that Obama has lost a huge chunk of the white vote, and isn't the demograhics in ohio&penn, generally white? I heard both states have about a 10% black population.

 

[paulitician]

Florida will be key. If they flip to red,it will be very hard for Obama to get re-elected.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and I am hearing Obama is also in trouble with Wisconsin. But I don't think he can win Jersey or Iowa either. and also keep in mind Michigan.

 

[paulitician]

and I am hearing Obama is also in trouble with Wisconsin. But I don't think he can win Jersey or Iowa either. and also keep in mind Michigan.

Jersey going Republican would be very surprising. I guess we'll see.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

you also have to keep in mind, high gas prices and very expensive health-care alone will cost Bambi the election, never mind Obama's 10% unemployment.

 

[BluePhantom]

Romney's talking smack about hispanics isn't going to endear him, and the Evangelicals are going to stay home. And he'll have to rely on Rick Perry to get out the vote for him..... ummm... yeah... that's not gonna happen.

Interesting analysis. I already gave my take on this in the beginning of this conversation:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...he-gop-be-genuinely-worried-about-2012-a.html


Regarding Hispanics though....I would submit that the VP nominee will almost certainly be Marco Rubio in order to grab a strong share of the Hispanic vote and that will impact things greatly....particularly in the southwest.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Well, just as long as you're not making an ass out of anyone.

 

[BluePhantom]

and I am hearing Obama is also in trouble with Wisconsin. But I don't think he can win Jersey or Iowa either. and also keep in mind Michigan.

I follow the polls pretty religiously. I think Obama losing IA, NJ, or MI is a heck of a long shot. Wisconsin; however, appears to be in play if Romney is the nominee. If it's someone else, probably not.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

we also have to wait and see how many republicans vote in the primaries, if we break all records,massive turnouts in all states, then Obama may be needing to buy more diapers.

 

[BluePhantom]

we also have to wait and see how many republicans vote in the primaries, if we break all records,massive turnouts in all states, then Obama may be needing to buy more diapers.

It will certainly be an indicator of how motivated the GOP base is yes.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and I am hearing Obama is also in trouble with Wisconsin. But I don't think he can win Jersey or Iowa either. and also keep in mind Michigan.

I follow the polls pretty religiously. I think Obama losing IA, NJ, or MI is a heck of a long shot. Wisconsin; however, appears to be in play if Romney is the nominee. If it's someone else, probably not.

I don't see how Bozo could win IOWA, that state is so anxious to be the first primary/caucus, they wanna play a part of an historic election. at least this time, Obama wont be sending buses of supporters from southern Illinois into Iowa to steal another state election.

 

[JoeB131]

well you also have to consider that Obama has lost a huge chunk of the white vote, and isn't the demograhics in ohio&penn, generally white? I heard both states have about a 10% black population.

I don't know if he has or not.

The thing was, he didn't win the White vote last time.

He only got 45% of the White vote in 2008.

It was minorities that put him over the top.

 

[BluePhantom]

I don't see how Bozo could win IOWA, that state is so anxious to be the first primary/caucus, they wanna play a part of an historic election. at least this time, Obama wont be sending buses of supporters from southern Illinois into Iowa to steal another state election.

Iowa has gone to the Democrat in five out of the last six elections. It's certainly vulnerable, but right now I have it in Obama's column. Hopefully that will change

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

well keep in mind how many democrats have switched over to conservative/and/or independent. i read that dems are down to about 32% of registered voters.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

another factor to take into consideration, lets just wait and see how big the crowds are for Obama next time around. over the last year, it's been more crickets than people.

 

[JoeB131]

another factor to take into consideration, lets just wait and see how big the crowds are for Obama next time around. over the last year, it's been more crickets than people.

Over the last year, no one cared that much.

Keep in mind, in 2007, Obama was playing to small crowds, too.