JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,756
- 2,220
Most Republicans are being dismissive toward Bernie Sanders and they are making a huge mistake. As the time for new industries to capitalize gets shorter and shorter, what once had kept our economy revving with new technologies and new jobs every few years, We now see new products launched and third party tools to use them by the end of the year and everything fairly maxed out in two.
Take gun powder tech and smart phones for example, gun tech came to Europe around the 13th century and they used them to make immobile bombards at a high cost that only kings could afford. By the American Revolution nearly 500 years later most local black smiths could make a highly accurate shoulder fired rifle. The monopoly tech of the Royal Mint had matured to the point that any blacksmith could also make gun powder weapons. Mail systems, railroads, mass communications and computers have had similar cycles, each getting shorter with the progression of time. this was the rate of capitalization, where the invested capital into new ways of making the tech in question grew more and more advanced until the labor and means to employ that technology became ubiquitous.
People could get into these new technologies and enjoy the extra pay and demand from working in those new technology professions, but the period of time this maturity for the tech grew less as the tech matured faster with newer and newer tech capitalization. Smart phones weren't introduced that long ago and already there are layoffs by new companies that were making big bucks off selling software for Androids. Within two years smart phones reached a maturity it took gun powder nearly 5 centuries to reach.
For the first time since 1932, a great number of Americans feel like there are shrinking options and opportunities in our economy as the capitalization rate becomes almost a completely capitalized and automated. Back in 1932, much of the problem with the Great Depressions impact on American working class families was due to a lack of support systems and so-called 'safety nets' for urban workers that people had had almost for free in rural areas. There the local farmers had their churches and townsmen who would help out if the farmer got sick or a barn had to be rebuilt due to a fire, etc. But there was nothing like that in city life. Some had the luxury of extended family, an Uncle Ted that might let you move to his farm and work for room and board till you got back on your feet. But if you had a family it wasn't that simple.
Life was hard then for people. Coca Cola had become a popular pharmacy soda fountain drink because it put energy into a population that was constantly fighting malnutrition and low energy. Back then if a doctor put you on a diet, people assumed it was to GAIN weight, not to lose it. The impact of FDRs New Deal and of the Democratic and Eisenhower administrations was so effective that we now over eat far more often than are malnourished.
We are coming full circle back to another evolution of our economy such that people are intimidated by a very uncertain future, of less opportunity, lower paying jobs and far fewer jobs as tech reaches a so-called 'technical singularity' that will make most white collar professions outdated. How will the nation find security, stability and prosperity in that new economic environment?
The economy of 2050 I think will be one of micro-self sufficiency. People will make their own products with nano-manufacturing and 3D printing. They will supply themselves with their own energy through Solar Panels and nano-fusion. They will self organize into cells of production and consumption around church labor co-ops that barter labor for their members outside the purview of the IRS. They will negotiate for barter with neighbors and more distant cells of production over the internet and be their own Wallmart. They will build their own homes with large 3D printers, and assemble their own 3D printed vehicles that run on solar panels and high tech nano-batteries. As the economy loses jobs, the old cash based economy of our time and the Modern age will be replaced by this new localized barter cashless economy.
This will hurt Federal revenues enormously, and there will be a misguided attempt to tax the bartering and to punish those who are not using cash. But as the Colorado pot selling has demonstrated, the feds can only enforce what the local PDs are willing to aid them in.
But also there will be an attempt to use legislation to slow the tech progress and limit all product designs with patents and copyrights that will fail as many capable people will design open source items and donate them to the public for free.
In 2050 I think we all will have the time and freedom to enjoy our lives of leisure and independence much like many of our ancestors did once the farmsteads were developed. People will eventually come to prefer their barter lifestyle, I think, to the old crush of commuting to a job in a hostile work environment that might or might not be there tomorrow.
But bridging over from todays job dependent lifestyle to the independence of tomorrow is going to be a rough journey. The sirens song of socialism will appeal to enough people that some laws are passed to help American workers find jobs and keep them for a semblance of a traditional career. But the need for social services and welfare will grow and those comfortably independent will try to ride the welfare services when they wont really need it so much, so the needs assessment will have to shift from a cash earnings basis to an asset based evaluation of need. There are so many other things that need to be done as well, but I want to get to what the GOP needs to do to respond and this post is too long already.
The GOP needs to limit immigration, especially illegal immigration and wipe out black market labor. Black market labor will be a huge drain on the cash economy as local citizens who are independent will be able to work for what illegals would only be able to afford. The independents will be able to afford it because they will be working for spending cash, not to pay for their whole lifestyle. This will cause a large drain on government revenues if not curtailed quickly.
The GOP needs to be viewed as empathetic to those who cannot find work. It will no longer be the case that those who cant find work are just lazy losers. Many today already cant find work despite graduating with honors and a lengthy resume with awards from past employers. The GOP needs to help people find jobs and have some assistance till they can. Helping people to shift to self owned businesses centered on internet sales would a huge boon to the working American desperately seeking means to an income.
The GOP needs to spur the adaptation of the new independent technologies that will help people to stretch their incomes. Limit corporate patent rights and copyrights. Enforce narrow patent guidelines and make the use of harassing legal suits a penalizing affair for the loser. No more patents for mouse clicks or the wheel any more.
The Democrats will be offering government programs and that will help in the short run. But as government revenues decline unrelentingly, the GOP needs to be the leading force for new ways of handling unfriendly economic transition.
Take gun powder tech and smart phones for example, gun tech came to Europe around the 13th century and they used them to make immobile bombards at a high cost that only kings could afford. By the American Revolution nearly 500 years later most local black smiths could make a highly accurate shoulder fired rifle. The monopoly tech of the Royal Mint had matured to the point that any blacksmith could also make gun powder weapons. Mail systems, railroads, mass communications and computers have had similar cycles, each getting shorter with the progression of time. this was the rate of capitalization, where the invested capital into new ways of making the tech in question grew more and more advanced until the labor and means to employ that technology became ubiquitous.
People could get into these new technologies and enjoy the extra pay and demand from working in those new technology professions, but the period of time this maturity for the tech grew less as the tech matured faster with newer and newer tech capitalization. Smart phones weren't introduced that long ago and already there are layoffs by new companies that were making big bucks off selling software for Androids. Within two years smart phones reached a maturity it took gun powder nearly 5 centuries to reach.
For the first time since 1932, a great number of Americans feel like there are shrinking options and opportunities in our economy as the capitalization rate becomes almost a completely capitalized and automated. Back in 1932, much of the problem with the Great Depressions impact on American working class families was due to a lack of support systems and so-called 'safety nets' for urban workers that people had had almost for free in rural areas. There the local farmers had their churches and townsmen who would help out if the farmer got sick or a barn had to be rebuilt due to a fire, etc. But there was nothing like that in city life. Some had the luxury of extended family, an Uncle Ted that might let you move to his farm and work for room and board till you got back on your feet. But if you had a family it wasn't that simple.
Life was hard then for people. Coca Cola had become a popular pharmacy soda fountain drink because it put energy into a population that was constantly fighting malnutrition and low energy. Back then if a doctor put you on a diet, people assumed it was to GAIN weight, not to lose it. The impact of FDRs New Deal and of the Democratic and Eisenhower administrations was so effective that we now over eat far more often than are malnourished.
We are coming full circle back to another evolution of our economy such that people are intimidated by a very uncertain future, of less opportunity, lower paying jobs and far fewer jobs as tech reaches a so-called 'technical singularity' that will make most white collar professions outdated. How will the nation find security, stability and prosperity in that new economic environment?
The economy of 2050 I think will be one of micro-self sufficiency. People will make their own products with nano-manufacturing and 3D printing. They will supply themselves with their own energy through Solar Panels and nano-fusion. They will self organize into cells of production and consumption around church labor co-ops that barter labor for their members outside the purview of the IRS. They will negotiate for barter with neighbors and more distant cells of production over the internet and be their own Wallmart. They will build their own homes with large 3D printers, and assemble their own 3D printed vehicles that run on solar panels and high tech nano-batteries. As the economy loses jobs, the old cash based economy of our time and the Modern age will be replaced by this new localized barter cashless economy.
This will hurt Federal revenues enormously, and there will be a misguided attempt to tax the bartering and to punish those who are not using cash. But as the Colorado pot selling has demonstrated, the feds can only enforce what the local PDs are willing to aid them in.
But also there will be an attempt to use legislation to slow the tech progress and limit all product designs with patents and copyrights that will fail as many capable people will design open source items and donate them to the public for free.
In 2050 I think we all will have the time and freedom to enjoy our lives of leisure and independence much like many of our ancestors did once the farmsteads were developed. People will eventually come to prefer their barter lifestyle, I think, to the old crush of commuting to a job in a hostile work environment that might or might not be there tomorrow.
But bridging over from todays job dependent lifestyle to the independence of tomorrow is going to be a rough journey. The sirens song of socialism will appeal to enough people that some laws are passed to help American workers find jobs and keep them for a semblance of a traditional career. But the need for social services and welfare will grow and those comfortably independent will try to ride the welfare services when they wont really need it so much, so the needs assessment will have to shift from a cash earnings basis to an asset based evaluation of need. There are so many other things that need to be done as well, but I want to get to what the GOP needs to do to respond and this post is too long already.
The GOP needs to limit immigration, especially illegal immigration and wipe out black market labor. Black market labor will be a huge drain on the cash economy as local citizens who are independent will be able to work for what illegals would only be able to afford. The independents will be able to afford it because they will be working for spending cash, not to pay for their whole lifestyle. This will cause a large drain on government revenues if not curtailed quickly.
The GOP needs to be viewed as empathetic to those who cannot find work. It will no longer be the case that those who cant find work are just lazy losers. Many today already cant find work despite graduating with honors and a lengthy resume with awards from past employers. The GOP needs to help people find jobs and have some assistance till they can. Helping people to shift to self owned businesses centered on internet sales would a huge boon to the working American desperately seeking means to an income.
The GOP needs to spur the adaptation of the new independent technologies that will help people to stretch their incomes. Limit corporate patent rights and copyrights. Enforce narrow patent guidelines and make the use of harassing legal suits a penalizing affair for the loser. No more patents for mouse clicks or the wheel any more.
The Democrats will be offering government programs and that will help in the short run. But as government revenues decline unrelentingly, the GOP needs to be the leading force for new ways of handling unfriendly economic transition.
